According to various statistics, 80-90% of companies go bankrupt in the first year of their existence. Simply put, there are no logical prerequisites for organizing your own business, the probability of winning is comparable to playing roulette. There is nothing surprising that all start-ups are distinguished by unmotivated optimism, which pushes them to open their business.
Watching different start-ups, I began to notice that each new project goes through 3 phases of development: “euphoric”, “depressive” and “realistic”
At first, a beginning entrepreneur thinks that everything will be very, very good for him, you just need to start. One may argue with him. Prove that he is wrong, give arguments. Even on the most convincing arguments, he will answer that he “feels imminent success” and you will be left without counterarguments. It is at this stage that the entrepreneur makes all the most ridiculous mistakes, including wasting money on beautiful tables, repairs in the office and expensive logo. He is confident that his business is about to meet with deafening success. This is the typical "euphoric start-uper syndrome".
But the music does not play for long. Usually, a severe “depressive” stage occurs within 6–8 months. Suddenly it turns out that the idea is so-so, there are no users, and all the money was spent on the useless chairs and monitors, behind which “it is very convenient to work.” Money gradually runs out, and no ideas on changing the situation arise. It is at this point that most companies go bankrupt and close, creating the statistics mentioned above, and only a few are destined to go further.
')
It seems to me that the project will pass this stage or not, depends not so much on objective macroeconomic reasons, not on the idea, but on the team. If a team on a project is cohesive, if it is self-sufficient and able to develop, analyze and produce a product despite the fact that everything is not as cool as it was thought at first - sooner or later they will come up. That is, not the fact that they will become very rich (it already depends on the chosen idea and the market), but that the project will survive and occupy its niche is almost guaranteed. Not by chance, investors in the seed stage are not interested in the idea, but only in the team.
In any case, when they pass this “depressive” phase and find themselves in a “realistic” phase, they will begin to slowly understand how the market in which they find themselves, what real users look like. Most likely, it will turn out here that everything had to be done differently, and we must sit down at the alterations, but it is this knowledge and understanding of the market that will ultimately ensure the success of the project.
The most disappointing is that afterwards comes the understanding that the chosen topic was “not very”, that you had to do something else, that everyone here is engaged in a real business, and you have “everything is not right”, but it just lets you know about yourself new euphoric syndrome. It begins to seem that just start to engage in another business and everything will be fine.
We, too, were advancing and stepping on this rake. We also launched all our projects (
www.qtrack.ru ,
www.qcrm.ru , etc.), being in a state of euphoria. But with experience, understanding the nature of these 3 phases, you begin to “pass” them more adequately and more competently: you act carefully at the beginning, carefully study the experience gained later.
The original post is published in my personal blog . M. Tokovinin.