
It is easier to make predictions about the fate of large incubators in Russia, allegedly Skolkovo, by understanding the Russian history of small incubators.
The main problems faced by beginners are the lack of experience, team, contacts, facilities and investor. Theoretically, incubators are called upon to solve this problem, but in Russia this function is practically not developed.
First of all, for the implementation of this task, the officials lack a clear task, personal responsibility and competence.
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Very little money is allocated for the development of incubators in Russia, as a result of which their number is very limited. Therefore, in order to get into this incubator, you need to "give to the paw." The situation for Russia is normal.
The “innovativeness” of the projects is also in doubt, and preferences are often given to hairdressers and shopkeepers. What can be explained by the fact that it is harder to produce than to sell. But IT-production is a sphere that stands alone. Together with the constantly evolving technologies, “swell” and huge new markets, triggered by all sorts of “iPads” and “Facebook”. But Russian investors do not dare to invest in innovation. Explaining this by the fact that they are simply not interested in having a huge business, to romp in small business of IT specialists, the cost of which will pay off only after a couple of years. This rule is true not only for the IT-sphere, but also for areas where high technologies have been used in the developed world for a long time. According to various sources, large Russian companies spend only 1-3% of their budget on innovations.
As the experience of other countries shows, business incubators are a very useful institution for the state, helping to solve a bunch of social problems: small businesses create jobs, prevent the outflow of labor from the region, primarily qualified ones. It is terrible that due to bureaucratic incompetence, young people are forced to work in every kind of McDonald's.
In my understanding, the optimal environment for creating incubators of innovative technologies is the presence of brains, big business interested in high-tech solutions, the search for which it can donate, including for outsourcing, and officials promoting the development of such an environment (taxes, subsidies to universities and etc.). As a result, instead of McDonald’s, students get jobs related to their profession. Business gets - brains, creating a solution. And the state - inhibits the outflow of these same brains.
There are positive examples in the world - the well-known Silicon Valley, the development of which is associated with the concentration of leading universities, large cities, sources of financing for new companies, as well as a favorable climate. There are also examples in Russia, only they are an exception, only confirming the absurdity of the path we are following. But it seems that our officials have completely different tasks with the implementation of which they successfully cope.