"Unlimited" mobile Internet is not fantastic, Eldar
This post is the answer to the publication of EldarMurtazin ““ Unlimited ”mobile Internet or is it fantastic son”
Not a single revolution, including the technical one, takes place without first creating the proper infrastructure. Often, the main role is also played by the removal of restrictions in the area where the removed restrictions are perceived by all as de facto. Examples - funding for geek research in Palo Alto gave the world a mouse, a graphical window interface, Ethernet. Then it was not claimed by 99. (9)% of PC users, but non-personal computers, too. Good roads? In Germany, they were built for tanks, at a time when nobody thought about mass automobilization and 95% of the population would never support such spending. But then - military spending, a very controversial thing.
What is this post about? On infrastructure and people.
Here is a forecast from Cisco on the growth of mobile traffic for the next five years.
Do I need to explain in detail why you should trust this graphic?
Don't believe it anyway, ok. What influences the growth of traffic?
The addition of these factors and leads, in fact, Cisco, in addition to the reasons I mentioned, lists more portable video cameras connected to the network, book readers and portable projectors.
Now to the numbers. If the total penetration of cellular communication in the world will increase by 2 times (up to 6 billion subscribers), then traffic will increase by 66 times in 5 years! Or more than 33 times per user. And if today 90% of users are satisfied with 500Mb of traffic per month, then in 5 years this figure will be around 15GB.
What is all this transfer to, and the fact that infrastructure is first created for services, and then they appear like mushrooms after rain. I am very glad that after the appearance of Yota, the big three began to think about how not to lose subscribers, market share, $$$ and other attributes of carrier happiness. Prices have gone down; perhaps after a while, a human approach to business will appear.
Well, now I want to talk about the main thing: about us.
It so happened in the process of evolution (which has not yet ended) that people do not have MB, TB counters, an exact minute counter. I do not believe in services whose form is dictated by the inertia of the thinking of specialists rather than by taking into account the customer consumption model.
Examples of "inhuman" restrictions that we have today in mobile communications, getting rid of which will bring innovators success in one form or another:
By the way, a clamshell can be considered a good example of circumventing a restriction with buttons - even a person without experience will understand that you need to open a clamshell to answer a call, and close the call to end a call.
In this section, I will give one example that is immensely annoying, in my opinion, to everyone in the communications market. An example of the infinite love of money for each of the operators of the big three are tariffs for WAP traffic. Throughout the civilized world, the cost of traffic through an access point (APN) WAP and the Internet are the same. We have the cost of MB through WAP about 9-10 USD. And for many WAP subscribers, the point is set as the only correct one to access the network. This is called digesting your own subscriber base. It’s no wonder why everyone like Megafon, Beeline and MTS are chasing new connections. If you cheat all of your subscribers at least once for 500-1000 rubles, you get good money until they get all the people in our country. This is one of the most vivid examples of an inhuman approach to business. In fact, it’s not necessary to invent anything to abandon the MB counter. Enough combinatorial thinking. We all know what a quality of service (QoS) system is. So, most of the QoS systems of telecom operators allow you to divide subscribers into groups, depending on their membership in a particular group, the subscriber receives priority in the provision of communication services.
Accordingly, the implementation of unlimited is to make a dynamic list of subscribers, where the priority of the subscriber is reduced depending on the amount of data transferred for this subscriber for the period. Downloaded 5GB - priority is lower than that of users who downloaded 1GB. 10GB downloaded per day - priority is below 99% of users. This is the most fair traffic distribution system for flat rate. You can make more money by typing add. Tariffs that give you + 2-3 points to priority karma for this period. The situation allows, by the way, a completely “snickering” subscriber to go to a secluded place where the network is not so loaded and continue to eat the full speed of civilization.
Another aspect of the problem is that at the moment the network of operators is simply not ready for the influx of customers to data services. This is due to the lack of capacity of the core network, segments of which often have to be rented at the rates of state telecom operators. The limited air channel is present, but an example of the same Yota operator shows that even now it is possible to achieve an average value of traffic per subscriber greater than that of many wireline operators.
Significant progress in the limitations of the air channel is worth waiting with not even LTE as much as LTE Advanced, when MIMO mode can work on all frequency ranges available for the network and device. This will lead to radical changes, both in the principles of mobile networks, and the principles of frequency licensing and cooperation of mobile operators.
As summary:
Not a single revolution, including the technical one, takes place without first creating the proper infrastructure. Often, the main role is also played by the removal of restrictions in the area where the removed restrictions are perceived by all as de facto. Examples - funding for geek research in Palo Alto gave the world a mouse, a graphical window interface, Ethernet. Then it was not claimed by 99. (9)% of PC users, but non-personal computers, too. Good roads? In Germany, they were built for tanks, at a time when nobody thought about mass automobilization and 95% of the population would never support such spending. But then - military spending, a very controversial thing.
What is this post about? On infrastructure and people.
Infrastructure
Here is a forecast from Cisco on the growth of mobile traffic for the next five years.
Do I need to explain in detail why you should trust this graphic?
Don't believe it anyway, ok. What influences the growth of traffic?
- Growth in the number of smartphones and their% in the share of mobile phone sales
- The increase in the number of connected devices
- The increase in the number of laptops with WAN
- Tablet's
- Increasing screen resolutions on all kinds of mobile devices. I take this opportunity to say hello to Retina Display
- Increased video service penetration
- Music Services - Spotify, Last.fm
- Growth in hosted services
The addition of these factors and leads, in fact, Cisco, in addition to the reasons I mentioned, lists more portable video cameras connected to the network, book readers and portable projectors.
Now to the numbers. If the total penetration of cellular communication in the world will increase by 2 times (up to 6 billion subscribers), then traffic will increase by 66 times in 5 years! Or more than 33 times per user. And if today 90% of users are satisfied with 500Mb of traffic per month, then in 5 years this figure will be around 15GB.
What is all this transfer to, and the fact that infrastructure is first created for services, and then they appear like mushrooms after rain. I am very glad that after the appearance of Yota, the big three began to think about how not to lose subscribers, market share, $$$ and other attributes of carrier happiness. Prices have gone down; perhaps after a while, a human approach to business will appear.
People
Well, now I want to talk about the main thing: about us.
It so happened in the process of evolution (which has not yet ended) that people do not have MB, TB counters, an exact minute counter. I do not believe in services whose form is dictated by the inertia of the thinking of specialists rather than by taking into account the customer consumption model.
Examples of "inhuman" restrictions that we have today in mobile communications, getting rid of which will bring innovators success in one form or another:
- Counting minutes. There are already (hooray hooray!) Flat tariffs and services with indirect monetization (skype-to-skype, as an example).
- Counting MB. From this already got rid of in the world of the wired Internet. How to get rid of this in the world of wireless Internet, I will tell at the end of this note. None of you can measure a Youtube video in MB. Most 40+ people do not understand the meaning of the word "traffic." You can even arrange a quiz - how much does the main page of Habr weigh.
- Call buttons on the phone and the screen and lock button
You understand that the availability of these buttons is due only to the fact that so far no one has bothered to just think about how to do without them. Technical means already more than allow you to understand during an incoming call that you brought the phone to your ear. Or understand that you pulled the phone out of your pocket and still want to see what's on the screen.
By the way, a clamshell can be considered a good example of circumventing a restriction with buttons - even a person without experience will understand that you need to open a clamshell to answer a call, and close the call to end a call.
In this section, I will give one example that is immensely annoying, in my opinion, to everyone in the communications market. An example of the infinite love of money for each of the operators of the big three are tariffs for WAP traffic. Throughout the civilized world, the cost of traffic through an access point (APN) WAP and the Internet are the same. We have the cost of MB through WAP about 9-10 USD. And for many WAP subscribers, the point is set as the only correct one to access the network. This is called digesting your own subscriber base. It’s no wonder why everyone like Megafon, Beeline and MTS are chasing new connections. If you cheat all of your subscribers at least once for 500-1000 rubles, you get good money until they get all the people in our country. This is one of the most vivid examples of an inhuman approach to business. In fact, it’s not necessary to invent anything to abandon the MB counter. Enough combinatorial thinking. We all know what a quality of service (QoS) system is. So, most of the QoS systems of telecom operators allow you to divide subscribers into groups, depending on their membership in a particular group, the subscriber receives priority in the provision of communication services.
Accordingly, the implementation of unlimited is to make a dynamic list of subscribers, where the priority of the subscriber is reduced depending on the amount of data transferred for this subscriber for the period. Downloaded 5GB - priority is lower than that of users who downloaded 1GB. 10GB downloaded per day - priority is below 99% of users. This is the most fair traffic distribution system for flat rate. You can make more money by typing add. Tariffs that give you + 2-3 points to priority karma for this period. The situation allows, by the way, a completely “snickering” subscriber to go to a secluded place where the network is not so loaded and continue to eat the full speed of civilization.
Another aspect of the problem is that at the moment the network of operators is simply not ready for the influx of customers to data services. This is due to the lack of capacity of the core network, segments of which often have to be rented at the rates of state telecom operators. The limited air channel is present, but an example of the same Yota operator shows that even now it is possible to achieve an average value of traffic per subscriber greater than that of many wireline operators.
Significant progress in the limitations of the air channel is worth waiting with not even LTE as much as LTE Advanced, when MIMO mode can work on all frequency ranges available for the network and device. This will lead to radical changes, both in the principles of mobile networks, and the principles of frequency licensing and cooperation of mobile operators.
As summary:
- The future for services with a human face
- Any frequency resource in the range of 450-3500 MHz - has a significant expression in $$$. This will be all the more obvious the closer the launch of LTE Advanced networks.
- To devour their subscribers is evil
- Any unlimited is finite. Even at 50MBit per second, you download an astronomical, but finite amount of data a month
- Good wins evil
')
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/97624/
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