About the demise of the old dirty Web or the Legend of the life-giving sensor
The fourth article from a large and strange cycle.
Lyrical digression
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As I write articles, I myself learn a little about life, and I change from mistakes. In past articles, I was accused of captain obviousness. Still would. In my articles, I just do what I bring together distant facts, describe in detail the events taking place and it turns out quite obvious, albeit rare and incredible individually predictions. In this article I will mix all the facts and turn the text in the opposite direction. I will give forecasts immediately, and then
Who is this article dedicated to?
1. Experts in the field of web-building, owners of web studios. Creators of sites and multimedia presentations. Yes, you certainly have your own opinion on this matter, but no one is stopping you from acting like clever Tema. Practice on cats and update the skill of the staff before future battles for a new market for Internet services.
2. Russian IT-officials. Let the supreme power and is engaged slightly in those in the field of IT, namely, it is trying to
3. Owners of large arrays of digital content.
4. Investors in IT venture projects
5. Owners of large sites and portals in the Russian Federation
6. For those who are interested in tomorrow, dreaming about computers in 2015, ordinary Internet geeks in the army of Russian bloggers.
Forecasts
- In 2015, the notebook market will be significantly reduced. Desktops will return and retain more than 50% of the amount of computers + laptops (the forecast, though shaky, but I believe it)
- In 2015, the share of the operating system of the Windows NT line on the Internet on devices larger than 9 inches will significantly decrease. If this system does not close itself with certificates.
- In 2015, the browser games market will stall
- In 2015, videoconferencing will be used everywhere. But not in mobile phones, but in TVs
- By 2015, a crisis of BBB sites will occur. Many domains will become cheaper and free.
- by 2015, SEO specialists will find the best lessons and new niches for themselves
- by 2015, the concept of “site” will irrevocably begin to lose a big and valuable meaning. WWW sites of the companies will stop advertising. Everything will be back to normal
- As a result, the CMS market will be very narrow by 2015
etc. etc. There will be a lot of changes. Now I will begin to describe and recall different things, make predictions right in the article, and if the article interests you, you can return to these lines and evaluate their authenticity.
Where it all begins
I will describe here a few, or rather, I will even single out three vectors leading to one point. In 2015 and e-commerce of this time. Protection technologies , hardware , communications, software and payment systems. I have already talked in detail about payment systems on the Internet (although I didn’t tell half), here I’ll concentrate more on content, software and hardware.
I will make a small forecast for the end of 2010: by the end of the year, more than 15 million tablets will be sold (with a good probability of up to 30). This audience is comparable for example with the world of Warcraft.
In general, 2010 is a very turning point. I do not know what it is connected with, maybe with some business plans over the years, but I already see that this year many technological concepts have come into practice. And what will happen next in the next five years - it will be a struggle, a war for market interest, a blanket pulling in ready-made concepts. Fundamental decisions are created.
Major OS change process
One of the main processes taking place now (in my LiveJournal, I even called it “fundamental”) is the process of closing operating systems. Future five-year system is a closed, encrypted system with a well-developed technology providing the level of access to hardware and the attention of the owner. The hardware itself in the new devices will no longer belong to the owner completely, just like the information on the Internet and on the device, the functionality of the hardware itself will not be its full property.
From the beginning XBOX, PS, Nintendo. Then Symbian, iPhone OS, Android. After some time, Windows Phone 7, Google OS. All these systems do not allow the owner of the iron to root.
I described it more clearly in LiveJournal, here I said so.
Three brand new devices
The second process, or rather an event that many, including myself, have been waiting for ten years, is the emergence of a tablet computer and a full-fledged operating system based on touch technologies. In the course of the text, I praise Apple a lot. These are forced words, I’m not so much impressed with the “earthen”, moreover this is my second “case” in two years, but nevertheless the iPad will at least be a unique device until the fall. You can substitute the words more generic "tablet" instead.
As a consequence of the first and second - the emergence of new convenient ways of delivering and consuming digital content and changes in information protection technologies
I will not stop here on many other new devices. For example, I will not dwell on electronic ink devices and various electronic newspapers in my hand. Although they are very good in their idea, and especially in preserving our eyes, they will lose to other displays. Due to the fact that the electronic ink has no WoW effect. This is too far from many years of customer experience.
2010 is the birth year of the tablet computer. Let something else come, but Aypad is already a very wonderful device. Now only that a new form factor, a new class of devices, has finally appeared. That is, the touch operating systems were connected with a good iron component and it turned out a device that is more convenient than a netbook, laptop and phone on the road and on the couch, that is, devices for entertainment and information consumption.
Paid information is primarily mobile devices. Because people want to have fun, and they are tired of hunching in front of computers in the evenings. They do not want to pay for movies, music, magazines at the monitor. But they pay great for movies and music on the road and on the couch. Win tablet and TV set-top boxes (firmware). So, the sensor and the remote control will win. The browser will have no place in these technologies, because the browser, as we know it and we see it, is a program using a computer mouse. The very word "link" in the near future will begin to be ousted by the word "button", and a click - "tap". And so be it.
My humble opinion is also that this mobility will not be single-variant. These are words about the future upcoming Apple TV product. I haven’t seen or read anything at all here, but I assume that the iPod Touch version with HDMI output is possible. And, perhaps, a new accessory for the iPad. Wait and see.
In general, now, that is, in 2010 and a little later, three fundamentally new devices appear in the classification of home and office electronics.
1. iPad Tablet
The tablet is now impossible to fit into the existing classification of devices before 2010, and it is impossible to define its purpose in the existing tasks. This is a completely new device, and a mobile phone is not even the closest brother to it.
As a separate class, you can predict netbooks of a new type, namely Google OS netbooks. Closed platforms in laptop form factor. I will not dwell on them in detail, everything is pretty clear there, I will just say that the consumption of paid content on these devices will be relatively small. But, maybe I am very mistaken here about netbooks with new operating systems.
2. Consoles for large screens
Here I will not paint much. Clearly without words. By the term “set-top box” I will understand devices with Internet access or firmware for TVs. Also new functionality in existing game consoles.
Actually, I thought that at WWDC Jobs would combine both of these classes and present an accessory for an iPad or an opportunity to connect to iPhone4 in iPhone4. Maybe it will be later. And maybe they will release a separate device on a similar OS, because, I agree, there is not enough space in the cell phone for home video.
3. Large touch tables
Microsoft has at least another very good undertaking in the bosom. But precisely because they have not been able to decide where to attach it for a long time, it hangs in the “prototype” for several years. Although with proper market entry this could be a bestseller. However, now after a couple of years of non-system experiments, we have to state that the revolution will not be made by Microsoft Surface. I made a brief forecast on these devices, I have nothing more to add.
About the iPad . At the very beginning of the start of sales in the world, I wrote a good article about the iPad, many of the predictions in it have already come true. I will give here only a link to it and I will not rewrite those moments here again, especially some things are already outdated and have become a given. Nevertheless, I carefully recommend it to read and add a few words to the article as an epilogue:
Yes, we are very ideological and stubborn Russians. We all rate very critically. And even in a long line, we will shame Russia and shout “gov * o your **”. But the world already understood everything. We have a lot of “leading Russian analysts” who used to be very cool about apple toys and even banned this topic. Now the Apple section is in the place of honor. And now they also call the poor tablet "bedside device." A sort of netbook for lying down. It is not his fault that he does not like so much else.
About Windows tablets . Yes, Microsoft over the years has filled up with such iron perversions as PC netbooks (UMPC), Tablet PC. They also hoped for a stylus for too long and did not know what else to do in Windows Mobile. Here, by the way, I must say that Microsoft had one tablet a few years ago. Called HTC Advantage. The WM system has rotted and deteriorated. I do not know how sincere Microsoft’s smiles were about the release of the iPhone. And how sincere they were about the release of Android. They laughed at these moments, and as a result they screwed up themselves. Moreover, they screwed up literally at the beginning of this year, namely, they showed HP Slate's “AyPad killer”, but that (this killer) will never be born again.
Microsoft is now difficult to cut its WP7 until the fall, it is quite possible that this will be a very good solution.
In any case, now, that is, in 2010 there will be a massive reversal of the production of mobile devices in this direction. A new class of devices was invented, a new sales market, and literally the whole computer crowd, both hardware and software, ran to spud it.
About Android tablets . Really looking forward to. Brakes Google with this case specifically, the tablet could appear two years ago.
In general, in the future, I will not describe the tablets separately and separate these three devices (tablet, console, table), since “in the course of the play” this will not be of great and fundamental importance. All three devices for receiving digital content will determine one game rule, and this rule is a fundamental change in operating systems that is taking place right before our eyes.
Transform devices into Internet set-top boxes
I do not see a great need for the convenience of the browser “to install nothing and immediately work.” This is not such a fundamental feature. In the course of this article, I can assume that desktop Windows and Mac OS will follow the Linux path in this regard, that is, they will create their own software repositories in the near future. By the way, you can note that repositories for computer games have already been created under Win and Mac. So this advantage of browsers will probably be close to "no" soon.
And of course, completely “left-handed” things will appear inside these repositories. Some information services.
Applications are not for information processing, but for its presentation.
But now I’m more describing other devices that are just being formed. Closed devices for paid content.
If someone does not believe that “great content” will go to the sensor and remote control, “put” itunes on the schedule of music piracy over the years. Do the same for the games, that is, correlate the revenue from PC games with the revenue from console games.
You probably did not understand what I said now. :-) I just said that films will probably be released much later on blues. Or not at all. There will be a closed format for closed set-top boxes :-)
These devices in two or three years will cost much less than now. Sales of communicators at double the price of a laptop will become insignificant, at this price there will be just a premium device with the most advanced hardware. "Procertified" devices are unlikely to come at a price of $ 300, and a standard outdated device without frills on an android or windows may well cost retail $ 150-250 without a contract. The mobile iron market will become reimbursable (subsidized), as it is now, for example, with printers. The war will begin not operating systems (here everything is settled), the war will begin delivery systems for users of information and software, payment systems. Publishers, content producers themselves will also fight with the owners of software platforms and distribution systems, as the authors of paper bestsellers once fought and prayed for them. At the same time, the IT giants themselves will turn into corporations by analogy with record labels and cinema labels. It is clear that the main global content for the next five years has already been produced. Right now, for sure, there are negotiations on porting (publishing) video libraries and book publications, periodicals, as was the case with music on iTunes. Somewhere they are sharing revenue for the next five years from the main mobile platforms.
WWW stagnation
The content market on the Internet will wither. Even now he lives practically on only one model - advertising, and with the departure of large sites on the tablet - the situation will be aggravated critically.
Then I will immediately say that you need to correctly understand my words. Certainly, the sites of the old format will remain, without any markets and aytyunza there. The WWW information market is more likely to not even shrink. Just next to literally in a half or two years a much larger market will grow, with much better and more interesting information, applications, services. For information will begin to pay people who have not given a penny to the browser and will not give. They will feed the market with other, no longer advertising big money. The quality of the old WWW information and the new paid will be approximately in the ratio of free-to-air TV and paid cable / satellite. That is, advertising in the usual BBB will be more. Yes, it will be very well targeted, but it will be very much. And not only in the form of advertising, but also in hidden things. Sites will literally exploit each other, just like you are now, by installing some free software, you see the marked checkboxes for installing a completely left paid service.
Two worlds of information, the emergence of "other Internet"
The content selling business will pick a sensor and choose closed platforms. Users will have to make a choice in this competition, just as now they no longer look at the old PC, but choose PS, XBOX or Wii. Or they buy both. Therefore, by the way, I still bought myself an iPad, I bought one of the first in our city (but on the second attempt). I understood and decided that I would have both an iPad and an android platform. And as a smartphone, I will stay on Windows. This is a little money for such different pleasures. I advise you to do the same. AyPad is beautiful and I am pleased with it. My evening rest was transformed.
In general, neither AyPad nor Google Tablet is a replacement for a netbook or computer. They are designed to obtain different information for different “Internet”. <- This was the most important sentence in the article.
However, I will not convince and bother, the majority of those who read this page will already have tablets this year.
Internal technologies in closed platforms
I can not say here that the technology will be radically different from existing ones. In my LiveJournal, I even introduced what could be paid Internet based on a browser. But it will not. Did not have time.
In the case of Apple inside their platform, the iPhone (iOS) SDK will surely win. In the case of others - I do not know.
Concerning information security systems. Yes, more reliable technologies will be created here. Non-breaking technologies. Updated technologies. But whether they will become at the forefront is not entirely clear. Most likely it will simply be difficult to get / copy content from the device, and maximum efforts will be made to facilitate the acquisition and storage of these digital purchases. That is, the goods will be cheap enough, and they will be simply unprofitable and costly to steal and break. In other words, devices will be well protected, but digital products are unlikely to be protected by hard DRM.
Blurs technological fortress is currently defeated, we received a ready-made extraction solution for an HD image about a couple of years ago, and about a year ago for extracting (broadcasting) an HD sound.
Although, for example, the DVD-Audio format lived for quite a long time - almost ten years (possibly due to the elusive joe), but also about 1-2 years ago it became possible to stream such discs on a computer without downsampling. By the way, the defense largely lived on the pressure of copywriting on software and hardware manufacturers. Above the "players" of Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, "copywriting" will have full power.
Pricing change
Here it is necessary to note another feature. I think that first of all digital music, and then digital video, the video he-demand will be transferred to payment by subscription. There will be a monthly fee for using the services. In the case of films, this will be several subscriptions in categories A, B, etc. There will be all sorts of discounts on the purchase of wholesale films by one director. This is pure marketing, I will not describe it deeply here.
Also, of course, digital authors will not need paper publishers. It is quite possible that the profession of an aytyun-broker or something similar will appear.
Already, on the basis of iTunes, there are different ways of monetization. This is the Lite and Pro version. Unlock additional features, etc. That is, there are many different ways and tricks to take money from the user. In one user is protected - he is under the care of the owner of the platform. As profitable and not profitable.
Application naming is a separate big task. Among thousands and thousands of applications, among the ratings and reviews you need to promote your little button. This is a job that seo specialists might like.
What will happen to the concept of "computer"
There is still a little bit to look in the direction of the philosophy of IT. Over the past thirty years, we have become accustomed to divide operating systems and computer equipment into two different worlds. Because there was a specialization in the sale of both. There was a computer - a processor that was produced by one corporation, and we bought an operating system for it that was made by another corporation, and then we bought software that was produced by a third company. Now these hypostases will unite under one brand, power, a link. Yes, the Samsung processor will be in the iPhone and iPad. But users will not even be told about this, because this is the internal kitchen specifically of the epla and specifically of the Samsung. The consumer now does not select the processor. And do not even choose the OS. The consumer chooses a device entirely - as a brand and capabilities, that is, hardware and OSes, and after three years will choose all three things, that is, hardware, OSes and a closed software distribution system. All will be controlled by one brand. Advertising in the spirit of “Intel Inside” will lose all meaning. Who can tell exactly what processor is in his phone? The same will happen with large computers. The era of computer designers (home) will come to an end. Yes, of course, Apple now advertises the A4 processor (A4 = iPhone 4). But this is exactly the complaint within its product line. The next processor in ipad will be called A5. But this particular Samsung can "emerge" under a completely different name in the devices of other brands.
Communication technology
The digital goods market will greatly advance wireless technology. Standards 3G, 4G, LTE will become commonplace, because for the first time in several years they will truly be in demand and cost-effective. Here, of course, video calls will be a big plus. I don’t know if IPhone 4 will finally get off the ground in the next two years, but most likely yes. In terms of communications, there is also an important point to note. Yes, communication tariffs, primarily for traffic, will become fixed, unlimited, and become cheaper (ARPU). But do not think that it will be all their money. Wireless providers will earn indirectly, namely to take part of the proceeds from the payment of the final service on the Internet. Here they have all the possibilities, since the platforms of the next five years are closed platforms, which means they are very well controlled. There will be many stories and intrigues about this. Right now we can observe such intrigue between Apple, AT & T and Skype.
Option for desktop
About desktop operating systems. I have one crazy thought, but I still want to express it. In 2010-11, there is a chance for the emergence of new desktop operating systems. More precisely, systems focused on mouse control. One of them will definitely be - this is Google OS. But what others ... Google OS as we already understand - this is a system with its distribution of applications / services. Mac OS and Windows remain open platforms. I don’t know if they will decide, but potentially there is a non-zero probability that a new type of operating system will appear, closed.Old applications will run virtually in them, but new ones will be built on a completely different architecture. And this is not necessarily a bad thing. In the new OSes there will be no viruses, no fraud. There will be no stolen files, missing credit cards, problems with updating and numerous glitches from third-party Krivorukov programmers. There will be good data encryption. It will be possible to work on any such device with your login. This is a good price for the loss of freedom. I do not say that if these two OSes appear, they will be very different from today. We did not notice how Symbian became a closed platform. The same system of multi-level certification can be included here (and already applies to drivers).
Afterword
One more thing. Request to commenting and voting. As you can see, all my articles are of a sharp, provocative nature. Both in the names and in their ideas. Yes, I am writing controversial things, and I will continue to write like this all the articles that I promised you. I look arrogant, arrogant. Therefore, I ask you not to evaluate my personality in the article, this is just a feature of the author’s style. Take a look deeper. I ask interesting questions out loud and try to answer them with my personal opinion, to find a thinking interlocutor, a basis for looking into the future. If you have a clear opinion about computers and the Internet in 2015, then we may well agree in the comments. I yield to the power of clear arguments. This is a very interesting conversation.
[off] one detail suggested: febb.habrahabr.ru/blog/96115/#comment_2940236[/ off]
UPDATE : gentlemen reading diagonally :-) I'm not saying that tablets will replace desktops and large working systems in the office :-) This sector will only grow, and just grow well :-) I'm saying that those , who uses a computer and TV at home as entertainment - and this is the overwhelming part of humanity - here, instead of a computer and a laptop at home, tablets and Internet2 can appear on TV :-)
UPDATE : how to understand my articles: please read habrahabr.ru/blogs / eCommerce / 96115 / # comment_2947198
about the illusion of cross-platform on the Web . What is not said in the topic about SaaS:
habrahabr.ru/blogs/eCommerce/96115/#comment_2947838
UPDATEI give a link to my "colleague". I highly recommend reading his version of technology development and highly recommend giving him a positive assessment. The man really responded as needed.
cah4a.habrahabr.ru/blog/96374
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/96115/
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