Reflections on the future

In the comments to the recent post “ We don’t need it ”, many readers expressed the view that no one needs a lot of gigabytes / gigahertz / cores, and all this is invented by evil corporations like Intel to sell new processors. But I think that in the future, high-performance computers (and, accordingly, programs for them) will be in demand by the widest circle of users. It is only necessary to look at them more widely. Not as an opportunity to run more programs or cheat something faster several times, but as an opportunity to fundamentally change the interaction of a person with a machine and between people themselves.

Under the cut - my vision of the computer future of the next 10-20 years, in which, oddly enough, there is a place and parallelism :-).

So, the main argument of the proponents that “Intel just needs to sell multi-core processors” is that the home user of the power of a modern computer is enough for the eyes. What are you guys talking about? How enough, when it is absolutely not enough.
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I believe that the main direction of development of modern computers is to increase the convenience of people’s communication and collaboration. Services like Skype and ICQ, which were unthinkable at the beginning of the 90s, of course, are good. But those who actively use them understand their shortcomings. For example, using the services of freelancers more than once received as a result of the discussion is not what was expected. Because it is difficult to explain with text messages (and even video) what a person can explain in person. But if you arrange a personal meeting in the virtual world?

Today, virtual reality technologies still exist only in books and films. The depth of Lukyanenko from the "Labyrinth of Reflections" was "created" in 1996, and even then it was not something new, but a completely obvious idea, lying on the surface. I think that in the next 10-20 years we will see the first, although perhaps not very successful attempts at the mass realization of this idea.

So, my version of a brighter future.

You wake up in your apartment in Zamkade. Do a morning jog, take a shower, eat breakfast (if you like a snack in the morning), go to your home computer and wear a helmet ... I don’t know if you really need a helmet for virtual reality, but it really helps to “dive” into the atmosphere and disconnect from external irritants.

And here you are in the virtual world, which is completely three-dimensional and is an ordinary city. Of course, you can immediately find yourself in a virtual office, but nobody does this. Because when the need to get to work in reality disappeared, it turned out that the body used this time to relax and switch between tasks. So you quickly (AND WITHOUT GAP!) Get to your virtual office, sit down at a virtual computer and start:

• develop site design;
• program the web service logic;
• create a new desktop application using Microsoft or Intel tools (product placement must be here!);
• write a new article for a magazine or website;
• sell on the phone VERY useful things, nazvanivaya people.

In general, lead a normal office life. At the same time, your office will be exactly like the Google office from the neighboring Habra Topics. Or want an Intel office ? No problem, change the virtual office skin. It does not matter that you work in Horns and Hoofs LLC with a staff of 5 people - the basic version of the virtual office contains the skins of the offices of Google, Intel, Microsoft and the US Department of Defense (they are always smeared for different projects, campaigning for military service) .

On your work computer in virtual reality (I want to call it a virtual computer, but the term is used by VMWare, Virtual PC, etc.) all ordinary applications are launched from your real computer. That is, programmers will be able to run their favorite Visual Studio environment both on a real computer and on a virtual computer. And this is correct, since no one will rewrite all software from scratch in order for it to work in virtuality.

If it is more convenient for a programmer to work in virtuality with two monitors, then there are no problems - for $ 5 you can buy it, and for $ 10 you can buy a second computer in virtuality. For what in the virtual world to pay money for a virtual computer? The answer is, for what real money is paid for for the wonder sword in a WoW class game. Or for the need to increase the capacity leased in the center of virtualization. After all, a virtual computer also requires resources.

In this case, in a virtual office, you are not sitting alone, but communicating with colleagues, watching their behavior. And although out of the five senses (eyes, ears, tongue, nose, skin), only two are still available in virtuality (eyes and ears, language can only be shown), communication in such a world will be much more convenient than existing videoconferencing systems.

Will all this be counted on a work computer? Of course, there will be powerful servers, but one must assume that the user’s working machine will also have to work hard. After all, for example, applications in the virtual world will still be running on a real user machine, and not on some distant server.

All this is necessary for more convenient interaction of people at a distance. After all, there are already many companies distributed, if not countries, then cities. And even within the company of one city, such a thing would allow people to work from home.

What technologies are needed to realize this future?

1. High speed internet.
2. Application virtualization (mapping from a real computer to a virtual one) - now it seems to be there, but, for example, problems with graphics virtualization have not yet been resolved.
3. Powerful multi-core processors that will allow you to virtualize multiple applications, and at the same time cheat picture without brakes.
4. Difficult (technically), but easy-to-use tools for application developers to create the appropriate hardware and software infrastructure.

Realizing all this without multi-core processors is basically impossible. No increase in the frequency of individual processors will not achieve the required performance.

How much longer can we expect such a beautiful future? As I wrote, I think 10-20 years. To date, the beginnings of this is in World of Warcraft, Second Life, but this is clearly not enough. By the way, it is quite possible that the technology of virtual worlds in the form described here is implemented by some relatively small (up to 100 people) company that will be bought by a monster like Microsoft or Google. What is not an idea for a startup?