Prophet of 1995
This article was published in 1995 by Clifford Stoll, an American astronomer and doctor of science.
The author "perfectly" predicted the future of the Internet, not guessing in virtually every word. I would not play in his place at the races.
The original of the article is here , in English, and then - my rather free, translation, for those who do not want English.
')
I’ve been familiar with online for a couple of decades, and I’ll tell you, I’m confused. No, I certainly spent a lot of time on the Internet. I met wonderful people, even a couple of hackers. But I frankly worried about the current state of this trendy and very overvalued community. Dreamers see a future in which you can work remotely, in which there are interactive libraries and multimedia classes. They talk about electronic city offices and virtual communities. They say that business and trade will move from offices and retail premises to the network. And that the freedom of digital networks will help democratization.
Figushki! Our computer geniuses completely gone crazy? The truth is that not a single online database will replace the morning paper, not a single disk will replace a teacher and no network will affect the work of the government.
[upd: transferred to Humor on Habrahabr]
Here is a look at today's online world. Usenet, the global forum, allows anyone to write messages to the whole country. Your words fly to the general court, without waiting for editors and publishers. Every voice can sound cheap and instant. And what is the result? All voices really sound. This cacophony is more reminiscent of civilian radio, coupled with manipulation, harassment and anonymous threats. When everyone yells, they hear units. What about electronic publishing? Try to read a book from the disk. To put it mildly - a thankless job: instead of the usual paper pages, you get the flickering glow of an awkward company. And do not you drag this laptop on the same beach? Here Nicholas Negroponte, director of the Multimedia Laboratory at MIT, predicts that we will soon be buying books and newspapers directly through the Internet. Yeah, well.
The Internet lobbyists do not tell you that the Internet itself is one large ocean of unstructured information, without any claim to integrity. For lack of editors, reviewers, and critics, the Internet has become a dump of unfiltered data. You do not know what to score and what is worthy of attention. Once I searched the Internet for a date for the Battle of Trafalgar. There were hundreds of results, and I was digging for about 15 minutes - there was a biography of some eighth-grader, and a computer game that didn’t work, and a photograph of the monument in London. No one answered my question, and the search was periodically interrupted by messages like “Too many connections. Try later."
Will the government use the Internet? There are always many promises on this subject. But when Andy Spano ran for the post of head of Westchester County (New York), he put all his press releases and programs on the forum. And in this rich state, with a bunch of computer companies, how many people voted for this? Less than 30. Such a sad story.
In one click:
There are those who push computers into schools. We are told that multimedia will make education fun and interesting. Schoolchildren will be happy to listen to the animated characters, learning with the help of perfectly polished software. Well, who needs a teacher if there is a computer education? Ha! These expensive toys are too complex to use in the classroom and require extensive knowledge. Of course, children like video games - but look at it from the other side: can you remember at least one useful educational film in the last decade? But I am sure you remember two or three wonderful teachers who have changed your life.
Or here's an online business. We were promised quick purchases from the catalog - just in one click. Like, we will buy air tickets through the network, in restaurants we order tables and discuss trade offers. Stores, they say, will become redundant. So why does my local supermarket make more money in half a day than the entire Internet in a month? And even if there was a trustworthy way to send money through the network - but it simply does not exist - the Internet lacks the main component of capitalism - sellers.
What is missing e-wonderland? Human communication. Let's discard the servile techno-mumble on the topic of virtual communities. Computers and networks are isolated from each other. A line in a network chat is just a pitiful substitute for chatting with friends over a cup of coffee. Not one interactive multimedia screen comes close to the impressions of a live concert. And who prefers cybersex to real sex? And while the Internet is calling and beckoning, like a shining icon that says “Knowledge is Power!”, We are only trying to deprive us of our time in the real world. This is just a pitiful surrogate, this virtual reality, where only a lot of disappointments await us, and where, in the name of great Cognition and Progress, the most important components of human communication are mercilessly devalued.
1995
Now, among other things, Stoll is selling Klein bottles online.
The author "perfectly" predicted the future of the Internet, not guessing in virtually every word. I would not play in his place at the races.
The original of the article is here , in English, and then - my rather free, translation, for those who do not want English.
')
I’ve been familiar with online for a couple of decades, and I’ll tell you, I’m confused. No, I certainly spent a lot of time on the Internet. I met wonderful people, even a couple of hackers. But I frankly worried about the current state of this trendy and very overvalued community. Dreamers see a future in which you can work remotely, in which there are interactive libraries and multimedia classes. They talk about electronic city offices and virtual communities. They say that business and trade will move from offices and retail premises to the network. And that the freedom of digital networks will help democratization.
Figushki! Our computer geniuses completely gone crazy? The truth is that not a single online database will replace the morning paper, not a single disk will replace a teacher and no network will affect the work of the government.
[upd: transferred to Humor on Habrahabr]
Here is a look at today's online world. Usenet, the global forum, allows anyone to write messages to the whole country. Your words fly to the general court, without waiting for editors and publishers. Every voice can sound cheap and instant. And what is the result? All voices really sound. This cacophony is more reminiscent of civilian radio, coupled with manipulation, harassment and anonymous threats. When everyone yells, they hear units. What about electronic publishing? Try to read a book from the disk. To put it mildly - a thankless job: instead of the usual paper pages, you get the flickering glow of an awkward company. And do not you drag this laptop on the same beach? Here Nicholas Negroponte, director of the Multimedia Laboratory at MIT, predicts that we will soon be buying books and newspapers directly through the Internet. Yeah, well.
The Internet lobbyists do not tell you that the Internet itself is one large ocean of unstructured information, without any claim to integrity. For lack of editors, reviewers, and critics, the Internet has become a dump of unfiltered data. You do not know what to score and what is worthy of attention. Once I searched the Internet for a date for the Battle of Trafalgar. There were hundreds of results, and I was digging for about 15 minutes - there was a biography of some eighth-grader, and a computer game that didn’t work, and a photograph of the monument in London. No one answered my question, and the search was periodically interrupted by messages like “Too many connections. Try later."
Will the government use the Internet? There are always many promises on this subject. But when Andy Spano ran for the post of head of Westchester County (New York), he put all his press releases and programs on the forum. And in this rich state, with a bunch of computer companies, how many people voted for this? Less than 30. Such a sad story.
In one click:
There are those who push computers into schools. We are told that multimedia will make education fun and interesting. Schoolchildren will be happy to listen to the animated characters, learning with the help of perfectly polished software. Well, who needs a teacher if there is a computer education? Ha! These expensive toys are too complex to use in the classroom and require extensive knowledge. Of course, children like video games - but look at it from the other side: can you remember at least one useful educational film in the last decade? But I am sure you remember two or three wonderful teachers who have changed your life.
Or here's an online business. We were promised quick purchases from the catalog - just in one click. Like, we will buy air tickets through the network, in restaurants we order tables and discuss trade offers. Stores, they say, will become redundant. So why does my local supermarket make more money in half a day than the entire Internet in a month? And even if there was a trustworthy way to send money through the network - but it simply does not exist - the Internet lacks the main component of capitalism - sellers.
What is missing e-wonderland? Human communication. Let's discard the servile techno-mumble on the topic of virtual communities. Computers and networks are isolated from each other. A line in a network chat is just a pitiful substitute for chatting with friends over a cup of coffee. Not one interactive multimedia screen comes close to the impressions of a live concert. And who prefers cybersex to real sex? And while the Internet is calling and beckoning, like a shining icon that says “Knowledge is Power!”, We are only trying to deprive us of our time in the real world. This is just a pitiful surrogate, this virtual reality, where only a lot of disappointments await us, and where, in the name of great Cognition and Progress, the most important components of human communication are mercilessly devalued.
1995
Now, among other things, Stoll is selling Klein bottles online.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/86372/
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