Record purely for interest - to see by the end of the year, come true or not.
It seems to me that in 2010 one of the majors will still buy Citrix. Rumors have been around for a long time and not by chance - virtualization remains a hot topic, Citrix is now a very convenient company to buy in this niche (not as cheap as a startup, but with clear solutions and customers). 2010 will still be bad in the financial sense, and for 2011 they are already pinning some hopes of getting out of the recession (another question is how reasonable they are, but you won’t forbid people to hope). Citrix earned 1.58 yards last year, making a small profit; this year promises to be about the same, judging by the quarterly dynamics. Capitalization for today is 7.84 yards. In 2010, it will still be possible to buy with a relatively small premium, and if you pull, in a year it may not be enough money.
Who could buy. The first thing that comes to mind is Cisco. Companies need to bring to life their application for cloud computing, and this will have to seriously increase the software part. And very, very quickly - the race in the clouds is already in full swing, and at Tsiski the horse has not yet rolled. Quickly - it means you have to take a ready-made solution and preferably with customers. The partnership with VMware for Vblock has so far been impressed by a few people - the solution lacks developed management tools, it will be necessary to finish for some time. In addition, Cisco claims to server competition not only with HP, but also with IBM - which means that it must also think about Xen solutions. Ziska has money - sales in FY09 were 36 yards, more than in the pre-crisis 2007, with profit, too, order. ')
IBM, in theory, may well live without Citrix in your pocket - but not in conditions where Cisco licks Citrix. IBM also has money, it usually buys the cream, and Citrix now has the cream. But since for IBM such a purchase is not critical, they can also slow down.
For Microsoft, Citrix is a sworn friend - companies still maintain partnerships, despite the increasingly direct competition of their products. At the same time, Cisco's partnership with VMware for MS is a sharp knife. If Tsisk buys Citrix, the Hyper-V position will weaken. In general, MS would be happy to prevent any absorption of Citrix, but MS itself is clearly not in the mood for purchases now - the year was too hard.
There is still Oracle, which strangely bought Virtual Iron last year - a cheaper, but an order of magnitude less interesting Xen developer than Citrix. However, Ellison, it seems, never stopped thinking about duplicate assets. So it may turn out that he will buy Citrix after all, on the basis of control over technology.
In general, the bottom line is the contenders, apparently, Cisco and Oracle. Possible issue price - 8.5-9 yards.