Communications in 2020
Not really lapidary people today celebrate not only the New Year, but also the advent of a new decade. I would venture to work in the field of futurology and present my judgment on how communications will be at the end of this very decade. Happy New Year and welcome under kat!
1. Internet access
but. fixed internet access
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The penetration of fixed Internet access services will be about 80% - i.e. Almost everyone will have high-speed Internet at home, except for single pensioners and residents of remote villages. The access speed will be sufficient to easily consume all currently known services (including watching online broadcasts of TV channels and 2D movies). However, there will be new types of content (3D-films and three-dimensional multipoint sports broadcasts), the consumption of which will cause a lack of bandwidth on a global scale and will be available only in large megacities.
b. mobile internet access
Mobile Wi-MAX networks will be developed in Russia, which will become available within a radius of 200 km from any city with a population of over 50 thousand people. In the rest of Russia, mobile Internet access will be available via satellite communications, the price of which will drop significantly and will be only 2-3 times higher than the Wi-MAX price. 3G and LTE technologies will not receive serious development in Russia, but at the same time they will prevail in Europe because of the lobby of European manufacturers of telecommunications equipment.
2. Telephony
but. fixed telephony
The service penetration will decrease by 2020 by 2 times from the current level, i.e. every second of the existing home phones will be disconnected, and the people who use them will use voice Internet services for communication. In general, home phones will remain with people of retirement age.
b. mobile telephony
The penetration of services of GSM-operators will decrease by one and a half times by 2020 due to the growing popularity of Wi-MAX services and the fall in price of Wi-MAX communicators to the price level of current cheap GSM phones. Wi-MAX networks will be used as a means of accessing voice Internet services, as such, telephony service will not develop in them.
3. Television
The transition from analogue to digital broadcasting, scheduled for 2015, will lead to the migration of television to the Internet, i.e. Technologically, TV channels will be indistinguishable from popular Internet services, with the difference that mainly set-top boxes (STB) will be used to view their content. In the form of a separate service not related to the Internet, television will continue to operate, but by 2020, in this form, it will be in demand only by pensioners.
Migration to the Internet will lead to a decrease in the audience of leading TV channels and its departure to the “long tail” of the less popular, but numerous TV channels. TV channels will no longer show ads on their own, but will sell advertising time to personalized video ad networks, as Internet video services now do. In addition to advertising, TV channels will begin to personalize and show content (for example, show football broadcasts with your favorite camera viewer).
4. Communication Internet Services
There will be new services with a business model now unknown, which will accompany a person throughout his day, i.e. they will be convenient and useful to use both on mobile devices and on personal computers. Most of the new Internet services will work on the basis of social networks. Some existing social networks will remain, some will be merged by their owners, some will die. Twitter will die as fast as it was born, as soon as it goes out of fashion, by 2020 it will not be.
5. And finally :)
In our country, they will learn not only to program Internet services well, cloning their western counterparts, but also to invent new business models of Internet services for the rest of the world. Residents of Silicon Valley will be thrown to read techcrunch.com will be forced to learn Russian in order to follow the global trends of Internet development at Habré. World IT-capital automatically moves to New Vasyuki! :)
Happy New Year! Happy New Year! With new happiness!
1. Internet access
but. fixed internet access
')
The penetration of fixed Internet access services will be about 80% - i.e. Almost everyone will have high-speed Internet at home, except for single pensioners and residents of remote villages. The access speed will be sufficient to easily consume all currently known services (including watching online broadcasts of TV channels and 2D movies). However, there will be new types of content (3D-films and three-dimensional multipoint sports broadcasts), the consumption of which will cause a lack of bandwidth on a global scale and will be available only in large megacities.
b. mobile internet access
Mobile Wi-MAX networks will be developed in Russia, which will become available within a radius of 200 km from any city with a population of over 50 thousand people. In the rest of Russia, mobile Internet access will be available via satellite communications, the price of which will drop significantly and will be only 2-3 times higher than the Wi-MAX price. 3G and LTE technologies will not receive serious development in Russia, but at the same time they will prevail in Europe because of the lobby of European manufacturers of telecommunications equipment.
2. Telephony
but. fixed telephony
The service penetration will decrease by 2020 by 2 times from the current level, i.e. every second of the existing home phones will be disconnected, and the people who use them will use voice Internet services for communication. In general, home phones will remain with people of retirement age.
b. mobile telephony
The penetration of services of GSM-operators will decrease by one and a half times by 2020 due to the growing popularity of Wi-MAX services and the fall in price of Wi-MAX communicators to the price level of current cheap GSM phones. Wi-MAX networks will be used as a means of accessing voice Internet services, as such, telephony service will not develop in them.
3. Television
The transition from analogue to digital broadcasting, scheduled for 2015, will lead to the migration of television to the Internet, i.e. Technologically, TV channels will be indistinguishable from popular Internet services, with the difference that mainly set-top boxes (STB) will be used to view their content. In the form of a separate service not related to the Internet, television will continue to operate, but by 2020, in this form, it will be in demand only by pensioners.
Migration to the Internet will lead to a decrease in the audience of leading TV channels and its departure to the “long tail” of the less popular, but numerous TV channels. TV channels will no longer show ads on their own, but will sell advertising time to personalized video ad networks, as Internet video services now do. In addition to advertising, TV channels will begin to personalize and show content (for example, show football broadcasts with your favorite camera viewer).
4. Communication Internet Services
There will be new services with a business model now unknown, which will accompany a person throughout his day, i.e. they will be convenient and useful to use both on mobile devices and on personal computers. Most of the new Internet services will work on the basis of social networks. Some existing social networks will remain, some will be merged by their owners, some will die. Twitter will die as fast as it was born, as soon as it goes out of fashion, by 2020 it will not be.
5. And finally :)
In our country, they will learn not only to program Internet services well, cloning their western counterparts, but also to invent new business models of Internet services for the rest of the world. Residents of Silicon Valley will be thrown to read techcrunch.com will be forced to learn Russian in order to follow the global trends of Internet development at Habré. World IT-capital automatically moves to New Vasyuki! :)
Happy New Year! Happy New Year! With new happiness!
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/79765/
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