Internet advertising and SEO: in the footsteps of analyzes and forecasts
“Why does the budget go,
And perhaps not leaving.
And maybe flies
In the distance mania "
(Free interpretation of one song about love)
In its latest July report on the global advertising market, ZenithOptimedia (part of the transnational communication holding company Publicis Groupe) reviewed the global advertising markets , making predictions about their fate under the influence of the financial recession that swept the world. The forecast is rather disappointing and suggests a drop in the global advertising market this year by 8.5% with a subsequent rise and resumption of growth no earlier than 2011.
According to the forecast, the Russian advertising market expects a fall from 15% to 24% by the end of 2009. We are interested in the segment of online advertising from 0 to 12% growth. What is confirmed by the results of the first half of the year, and in itself is quite good.
If you do not think that there were prerequisites for a little more.
')
As can be seen from industry research, not all markets hold a hit equally well. First of all, traditional advertising media suffered: press and radio. Television and outdoor advertising can be conditionally attributed to the second group of reliability. The fall in turnover on them did not start immediately and in a smaller volume. The Internet advertising market turned out to be the most stable, continuing to grow steadily, if not at a pre-crisis pace.
The change in US advertising markets in 2008
Changes in advertising markets in Russia, forecast for 2009
The main reason for the growth of the Internet advertising market is its high efficiency, which makes it possible to master the budgets of traditional advertising media.
Factors affecting the advertising market segments
Actually, the increase in the share of the Internet relative to traditional media was also present as a growth factor before the crisis. In the American advertising market, the Internet began to “select” budgets from traditional media back in 2001. Recently, this trend has become apparent for Russia. Against the background of 25-30% growth in the advertising market of 2005-2008, the Internet consistently showed twice as good results, while the radio and press showed a two-fold lag, gradually giving up their positions.
If in the era of general growth, the redistribution of advertising budgets in favor of Internet advertising was only a pleasant addition, then with the onset of the crisis it became the only source of growth allowing this market segment to confidently demonstrate an increase in turnover against the background of a general collapse.
The purpose of this article is a rough estimate of the potential opening up in the current conditions for the domestic market of Internet advertising. This material does not in any way claim to be the ultimate truth and accuracy to the last sign in the data provided.
His task is to highlight the most obvious trends and prerequisites, to show the general order of numbers.
The results of research on the American advertising market, which, unlike the Russian one, ended 2008 with a fall, are very revealing. TNS global , Radar research forecast and Pricewaterhouse coopers LLP provide more than detailed data for analysis.
Traditionally, in the research of advertising markets in the context of distribution media, only media advertising is classified as a segment of Internet advertising, i.e. standard, rich banners and videos. Meanwhile, similar tasks are simultaneously solved by comparable in size segments of contextual advertising and search engine promotion (SEO). It would be too bold to attribute the design and development of sites to advertisements (although they also have their own piece in this pie), but the aforementioned markets in fact solve their problems (product promotion and sales assurance) without a doubt entirely belong to the advertising industry. For this reason, the momentum of the contextual advertising and SEO markets will also be taken into account in this material.
The volume of the American advertising market in its means of distribution
According to these figures, it is clearly seen that, starting from 2006, the gradual reduction of advertising markets in the press and radio was fully compensated by the growth of Internet advertising until 2008, when the real outflow of funds from the industry began. In 2006, the advertising market is still growing at 4% per year, but the radio is already at zero, and the press has slipped by 1%.
Without a doubt, in 2006 a certain proportion went to outdoor advertising and television. But since 2007, the TV advertising market is no longer growing. There is only one pointedly growing market.
According to the results of 2008, the American market of Internet advertising and search promotion increased by $ 2.2 billion against the background of a reduction in the markets of traditional advertising media by $ 6.6 billion. In other words, 34% of the cuts in advertising budgets were attributed to redistribution in favor of online advertising. Of these, slightly less than a quarter accounted for accounted display advertising - 23%. 72% was mastered by the contextual advertising market. The remaining 5% went to SEO.
Of particular value to this graph is the fact that there are no forecast elements in it. It reflects only the actual changes in the market.
The share of conversion of advertising budgets to the Internet from traditional media in the annual growth of the Internet advertising market (USA)
However, a similar picture, albeit less complete, due to the presence of the Internet sector in the form of one display advertising, is also demonstrated by the global forecast of Zenithoptimedia. The trend is obvious: the overall decline in the market will stop, but the expansion of the Internet segment through the press and radio will continue. The volume of the latter will continue to decline until the market growth rate does not exceed 3-4%. This is the proportion of traditional media "give" the Internet in quiet years.
Global advertising costs in its distribution media
What awaits the Russian Internet advertising and promotion market in the current conditions?
According to the forecast, Zenithoptimedia, based on the results of the first half-year of crisis (IV quarter 2008 and I quarter 2009). Advertising industry expects a fall from 15% to 24%. At the same time, radio and print will suffer the most: a drop from 33% to 40%. In the second tier, outdoor advertising (-22 / -30%), TV (-5 / -15%) and other media (-16 / -25%). The market of online media advertising will remain at the same level, or will grow by 12%.
Growth rates in relation to the previous year (Russia,%)
If the immediate future of advertising in print, on radio and billboards is beyond doubt, then you can fight for the fate of online advertising.
Volume of the Russian advertising market in its distribution media
In absolute terms, the volume of advertising markets expected by the end of the year is 64 billion rubles. The amount is three times the volume of the domestic market of Internet advertising and search engine promotion. Actually, the answer to the question about the growth of the Internet advertising market in a crisis is the answer to the question of how much of those 64 billion will be spent on the Internet.
Zenithoptimedia analysts believe that in 2009, media advertising will increase by 0.9 billion. And, if you follow this line, another 1.8 billion rubles should be set aside for contextual advertising and SEO. Only 2.7 billion rubles, or 4.2% - the conversion of peacetime for the US market.
Meanwhile, there is every reason to believe that in Russia this indicator was even higher before the crisis. Comparing the growth rate of the advertising market by media carriers, one can approximately estimate the conversion of budgets. Back in 2007, the radio and press missed at least 10% and 7% respectively, which in total amounted to 6 billion. For the past year, these figures amounted to 6% and 23%, or 6.5 billion rubles.
With the beginning of the recession, when evaluating an advertising campaign, the indicators for which Internet advertising is ahead of all other types of media: profitability, flexibility, variety of tasks and the ability to monitor results in real time came to the fore. The effectiveness of a well-conducted online advertising campaign can be very high. For example, for one of our customers, a large online store, the return on investment was:
- for Yandex Market - 578%
- for SEO - 733%
- for contextual advertising - 158%
- overall efficiency for the online store - 604%
Is the share of advertising budgets flowing in favor of online advertising reduced with a crisis? From the point of view of logic, this is unlikely. Statistical data for the States also confirms the very opposite. Against the background of the crisis, the American Internet took a third!
Nevertheless, judging by the assessment of the media and contextual online advertising markets with a growth of 5% based on the half year results (400 million in favor of online advertising versus 37 billion falls across the entire advertising market according to Mindshare and AKAR ), there is a reduction.
Without a doubt, to show results similar to the US, our market can not, at least because it can not cope with such volumes. In the USA, the share of the Internet in the advertising market is more - by the results of 2008, 8.3% only of display advertising and 16.2% with regard to contextual advertising and SEO. The similar figures for Russia are 2.8% and 4.45%. In addition, the US online advertising market was three times the amount by which the advertising market as a whole “sank”. In Russia, on the contrary: the expected amount of the fall in the market is three times larger than the market for advertising and promotion on the Internet.
But even 18% of the money leaving the market for traditional advertising (which is 11.7 billion rubles) is enough to ensure the growth of the Internet market at the 2008 level. Would he deal with such volumes? Oh yeah! Recall the past few years, when mountains were shaking, guns were rattling, and the ocean roared - the growth in contextual advertising ranged from 70% per year, and even more in SEO.
On this positive note, it is appropriate to recall the old anecdote about a lion who eats something, but who will give it to him. And, nevertheless, it is possible to take this value as high as possible. The lower figure is the money that “asks” for online advertising, which is 6% of the “pre-crisis” conversion - 3.9 billion rubles or 18% growth.
That is why the increase in the Internet advertising and SEO market by 12% in 2009 is not just very little. In the words of one of the constant participants of core conferences, this collapse and the complete collapse of all hopes of six letters is a fiasco.
Once again, this analysis does not claim the ultimate truth. His role is to become food for thought, even though it may not suit anyone. How much Internet advertising and search engine optimization will grow in this and next year depends primarily on the participants in this market. The extremely low percentage of “mastering” traditional advertising budgets only shows how great the scope of work is.
It is no secret that, despite all the prerequisites and extremely rapid growth, advertising and promotion on the Internet still occupy a very small share in the advertising market. This says one thing: the overwhelming majority of advertisers have a very low opinion of the Internet as an advertising platform. Convince them - our work. In any case, other sources of growth, other than attracting the budgets of traditional advertising media, are not foreseen in the near future. So in the first place there are two tasks. Formation of packages of services that best meet the needs of customers in the current economic situation, and the most effective sale of these services in a highly competitive environment, and for the most part to advertisers just entering the Internet advertising market.
In the end I will write a commonplace. Many companies, following the results of the crisis, will fold their heads or lose their former positions, but those who manage to find the key to the territory of competitors will make a big break. And this applies to both advertisers and advertisers themselves.
Alexander Sobolev , AdLabs Group of Companies
And perhaps not leaving.
And maybe flies
In the distance mania "
(Free interpretation of one song about love)
In its latest July report on the global advertising market, ZenithOptimedia (part of the transnational communication holding company Publicis Groupe) reviewed the global advertising markets , making predictions about their fate under the influence of the financial recession that swept the world. The forecast is rather disappointing and suggests a drop in the global advertising market this year by 8.5% with a subsequent rise and resumption of growth no earlier than 2011.
According to the forecast, the Russian advertising market expects a fall from 15% to 24% by the end of 2009. We are interested in the segment of online advertising from 0 to 12% growth. What is confirmed by the results of the first half of the year, and in itself is quite good.
If you do not think that there were prerequisites for a little more.
')
Let's start from afar
As can be seen from industry research, not all markets hold a hit equally well. First of all, traditional advertising media suffered: press and radio. Television and outdoor advertising can be conditionally attributed to the second group of reliability. The fall in turnover on them did not start immediately and in a smaller volume. The Internet advertising market turned out to be the most stable, continuing to grow steadily, if not at a pre-crisis pace.
The change in US advertising markets in 2008
Changes in advertising markets in Russia, forecast for 2009
The main reason for the growth of the Internet advertising market is its high efficiency, which makes it possible to master the budgets of traditional advertising media.
Factors affecting the advertising market segments
Actually, the increase in the share of the Internet relative to traditional media was also present as a growth factor before the crisis. In the American advertising market, the Internet began to “select” budgets from traditional media back in 2001. Recently, this trend has become apparent for Russia. Against the background of 25-30% growth in the advertising market of 2005-2008, the Internet consistently showed twice as good results, while the radio and press showed a two-fold lag, gradually giving up their positions.
If in the era of general growth, the redistribution of advertising budgets in favor of Internet advertising was only a pleasant addition, then with the onset of the crisis it became the only source of growth allowing this market segment to confidently demonstrate an increase in turnover against the background of a general collapse.
The purpose of this article is a rough estimate of the potential opening up in the current conditions for the domestic market of Internet advertising. This material does not in any way claim to be the ultimate truth and accuracy to the last sign in the data provided.
His task is to highlight the most obvious trends and prerequisites, to show the general order of numbers.
Looking abroad
The results of research on the American advertising market, which, unlike the Russian one, ended 2008 with a fall, are very revealing. TNS global , Radar research forecast and Pricewaterhouse coopers LLP provide more than detailed data for analysis.
Traditionally, in the research of advertising markets in the context of distribution media, only media advertising is classified as a segment of Internet advertising, i.e. standard, rich banners and videos. Meanwhile, similar tasks are simultaneously solved by comparable in size segments of contextual advertising and search engine promotion (SEO). It would be too bold to attribute the design and development of sites to advertisements (although they also have their own piece in this pie), but the aforementioned markets in fact solve their problems (product promotion and sales assurance) without a doubt entirely belong to the advertising industry. For this reason, the momentum of the contextual advertising and SEO markets will also be taken into account in this material.
The volume of the American advertising market in its means of distribution
According to these figures, it is clearly seen that, starting from 2006, the gradual reduction of advertising markets in the press and radio was fully compensated by the growth of Internet advertising until 2008, when the real outflow of funds from the industry began. In 2006, the advertising market is still growing at 4% per year, but the radio is already at zero, and the press has slipped by 1%.
Without a doubt, in 2006 a certain proportion went to outdoor advertising and television. But since 2007, the TV advertising market is no longer growing. There is only one pointedly growing market.
According to the results of 2008, the American market of Internet advertising and search promotion increased by $ 2.2 billion against the background of a reduction in the markets of traditional advertising media by $ 6.6 billion. In other words, 34% of the cuts in advertising budgets were attributed to redistribution in favor of online advertising. Of these, slightly less than a quarter accounted for accounted display advertising - 23%. 72% was mastered by the contextual advertising market. The remaining 5% went to SEO.
Of particular value to this graph is the fact that there are no forecast elements in it. It reflects only the actual changes in the market.
The share of conversion of advertising budgets to the Internet from traditional media in the annual growth of the Internet advertising market (USA)
However, a similar picture, albeit less complete, due to the presence of the Internet sector in the form of one display advertising, is also demonstrated by the global forecast of Zenithoptimedia. The trend is obvious: the overall decline in the market will stop, but the expansion of the Internet segment through the press and radio will continue. The volume of the latter will continue to decline until the market growth rate does not exceed 3-4%. This is the proportion of traditional media "give" the Internet in quiet years.
Global advertising costs in its distribution media
And what about us?
What awaits the Russian Internet advertising and promotion market in the current conditions?
According to the forecast, Zenithoptimedia, based on the results of the first half-year of crisis (IV quarter 2008 and I quarter 2009). Advertising industry expects a fall from 15% to 24%. At the same time, radio and print will suffer the most: a drop from 33% to 40%. In the second tier, outdoor advertising (-22 / -30%), TV (-5 / -15%) and other media (-16 / -25%). The market of online media advertising will remain at the same level, or will grow by 12%.
Growth rates in relation to the previous year (Russia,%)
If the immediate future of advertising in print, on radio and billboards is beyond doubt, then you can fight for the fate of online advertising.
Volume of the Russian advertising market in its distribution media
In absolute terms, the volume of advertising markets expected by the end of the year is 64 billion rubles. The amount is three times the volume of the domestic market of Internet advertising and search engine promotion. Actually, the answer to the question about the growth of the Internet advertising market in a crisis is the answer to the question of how much of those 64 billion will be spent on the Internet.
Zenithoptimedia analysts believe that in 2009, media advertising will increase by 0.9 billion. And, if you follow this line, another 1.8 billion rubles should be set aside for contextual advertising and SEO. Only 2.7 billion rubles, or 4.2% - the conversion of peacetime for the US market.
Meanwhile, there is every reason to believe that in Russia this indicator was even higher before the crisis. Comparing the growth rate of the advertising market by media carriers, one can approximately estimate the conversion of budgets. Back in 2007, the radio and press missed at least 10% and 7% respectively, which in total amounted to 6 billion. For the past year, these figures amounted to 6% and 23%, or 6.5 billion rubles.
With the beginning of the recession, when evaluating an advertising campaign, the indicators for which Internet advertising is ahead of all other types of media: profitability, flexibility, variety of tasks and the ability to monitor results in real time came to the fore. The effectiveness of a well-conducted online advertising campaign can be very high. For example, for one of our customers, a large online store, the return on investment was:
- for Yandex Market - 578%
- for SEO - 733%
- for contextual advertising - 158%
- overall efficiency for the online store - 604%
Is the share of advertising budgets flowing in favor of online advertising reduced with a crisis? From the point of view of logic, this is unlikely. Statistical data for the States also confirms the very opposite. Against the background of the crisis, the American Internet took a third!
Nevertheless, judging by the assessment of the media and contextual online advertising markets with a growth of 5% based on the half year results (400 million in favor of online advertising versus 37 billion falls across the entire advertising market according to Mindshare and AKAR ), there is a reduction.
Without a doubt, to show results similar to the US, our market can not, at least because it can not cope with such volumes. In the USA, the share of the Internet in the advertising market is more - by the results of 2008, 8.3% only of display advertising and 16.2% with regard to contextual advertising and SEO. The similar figures for Russia are 2.8% and 4.45%. In addition, the US online advertising market was three times the amount by which the advertising market as a whole “sank”. In Russia, on the contrary: the expected amount of the fall in the market is three times larger than the market for advertising and promotion on the Internet.
But even 18% of the money leaving the market for traditional advertising (which is 11.7 billion rubles) is enough to ensure the growth of the Internet market at the 2008 level. Would he deal with such volumes? Oh yeah! Recall the past few years, when mountains were shaking, guns were rattling, and the ocean roared - the growth in contextual advertising ranged from 70% per year, and even more in SEO.
On this positive note, it is appropriate to recall the old anecdote about a lion who eats something, but who will give it to him. And, nevertheless, it is possible to take this value as high as possible. The lower figure is the money that “asks” for online advertising, which is 6% of the “pre-crisis” conversion - 3.9 billion rubles or 18% growth.
That is why the increase in the Internet advertising and SEO market by 12% in 2009 is not just very little. In the words of one of the constant participants of core conferences, this collapse and the complete collapse of all hopes of six letters is a fiasco.
Summing up
Once again, this analysis does not claim the ultimate truth. His role is to become food for thought, even though it may not suit anyone. How much Internet advertising and search engine optimization will grow in this and next year depends primarily on the participants in this market. The extremely low percentage of “mastering” traditional advertising budgets only shows how great the scope of work is.
It is no secret that, despite all the prerequisites and extremely rapid growth, advertising and promotion on the Internet still occupy a very small share in the advertising market. This says one thing: the overwhelming majority of advertisers have a very low opinion of the Internet as an advertising platform. Convince them - our work. In any case, other sources of growth, other than attracting the budgets of traditional advertising media, are not foreseen in the near future. So in the first place there are two tasks. Formation of packages of services that best meet the needs of customers in the current economic situation, and the most effective sale of these services in a highly competitive environment, and for the most part to advertisers just entering the Internet advertising market.
In the end I will write a commonplace. Many companies, following the results of the crisis, will fold their heads or lose their former positions, but those who manage to find the key to the territory of competitors will make a big break. And this applies to both advertisers and advertisers themselves.
Alexander Sobolev , AdLabs Group of Companies
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/71556/
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