Amateur futurology or my view of the future
Greetings to you, habocoobschestvo! I would like to talk, perhaps even to speculate, of course with your help, on the topic of the nearest and not only the future of humanity in terms of technology. In this post I will make some possibly harsh statements and will be glad to discuss this topic.
1. We celebrate science fiction or that of the promised books, movies, etc. I do not see humanity in the future:
First of all, I can’t help but go over the idea of ​​cosmic armadas :) Perhaps I will treat this issue somewhat hilariously, but still. So, nothing, I emphasize nothing, this will not happen! The maximum for which the spacecraft will be used, so this is what they are used for now - that is, for the study of nearby spaces. And there will be no filibusters in space, no matter how sorry (detective sarcasm :))
')
Arguments: cosmic armada disappear due to the fact that in the foreseeable space to fight is simply no one with whom this time. The need for mass construction of ships, and most importantly their formation in certain formations before humanity seems not to be expected (the factors change - I will change my mind).
Terms: now we could build if it were necessary, I am not against the ships as such, I am against fantasies on the theme of the star fleet.
Secondly, I would like to take a ride with the gusto and crunch on the idea of ​​creating a collective mind, etc. a la k / f matrix. I can only explain that the fact that people are extremely reluctant to go to collectivization, and what to say about such a scale ... No, it is impossible.
Arguments: one is already inside the thesis, as an example of the second: how do you imagine to collect even the computing powers of a rather large cluster of people with completely different logic of thinking, etc. It's like trying to shove a few hundreds of processors with a completely different architecture on one motherboard, if that’s clearer.
Timing: never again.
2. And what do I see in the future (and then you see it is not so and that it is not syak):
The development of nanotechnology in all fields: from medicine to nuclear physics. It will begin with the construction of the first so-called "assembler", namely the nanobots, whose main and perhaps only task will be to create their own kind. And if it can take several years to create it, even in terms of design, the next one will be assembled in a few hours, and the 20th or more in minutes, or even seconds. Most likely, given the size of the nanobots, they will be created individually for each of the tasks, be it atom splitting or removal of cancerous metastasis.
Timing: already begins, while the speed is low, but even according to Moore's law, it will increase, but nonlinearly. But in my opinion, so in five years nanobots will already be part of everyday life.
The development of the so-called complement of reality: gradually, what is now being implemented is not clumsily with the foot of the tooth, decentralized, etc. gradually enter into everyday life in the form of glasses, and possibly lenses. This will give a huge leap in terms of communications, advertising, etc.
Timing: again, it already begins, with a sufficient speed of development (for this, almost everything is already there) and investments from one to two years to develop and refine the technology and as many more to implement.
Centralization of information: now we are gradually trying to collect digital information in one way or another (and we started doing this for a long time, look towards encyclopedias), now there is the same Wikipedia and this is an obvious example. Gradually, the information will accumulate, convenient tools for working with it will appear. And, of course, it will also gradually centralize until it is in the same global repository (I'm not sure about that, to be honest).
Timing: I am tired of repeating, it is already going now (already very disgusting about the number of repetitions, but I'm sorry, they asked for it) if not only volunteers, but also government institutions for example, attach to this, I think large repositories will appear in a couple of years (really large and not the type of Wikipedia, with all due respect to her). And in 5-7 years it will be possible to count on a practically integral information space. Please pay attention to the amendments (government intervention, capital investment, etc.).
Absolute publicity: if now we see video cameras in most public places, then after a couple of years, video cameras will be almost everywhere, on the one hand you say these are wild oppression of human rights, etc. on the other hand, you will agree, how nice it is to know that a shahid (in no case do not start interethnic holivars, treat with understanding, if you wish, replace him with a terrorist), who starts to assemble a homemade bomb, tie him up before he finishes it? Otherwise, tens or even hundreds of people may die ... The pros are not obvious? How do you ask to be with your personal life? There are two options:
First: most likely your personal life will be of little interest to very few people and this information will simply be eliminated programmatically.
Second, over time, human morality will change to such an extent that the modern (or rather already somewhat outdated) concept of personal life will simply disappear as untenable. Even now admit that pantyhose advertising has a near-erotic character, and the basics of sex life are told in high school, what secrets are there about at least the sexual part of private life? In the same way, gradually, unfortunately, higher motives are also squeezed out, well, those that are not according to Freud :)
Timing: in the near future, I think there will be “officially” cameras on the streets, then maybe they will shove it under some sauce and into apartments, houses, etc. On the streets, I think they will appear in the next few years, but in houses ... In many entrances, cameras are already there, so it's not far off.
On this, for now, perhaps I’ll finish, I’m happy to hear your comments, the topic will be complemented by the most important (in my opinion, I'm sorry) of them. It is also possible that I myself will add additional points. I will ask you not to breed in the comments of holivars, in my opinion it is absolutely useless. Thank you for attention.
UPD: For now, I’m putting it in popular science because did not find a more suitable blog. Probably this topic can be attributed to amateur futurology)
UPD: Added deadlines and some arguments. The topic was not intended to be strictly scientific, this is more of a discussion, so please make a contribution if possible and not only criticize, I can do it no worse, believe you. Sincerely.
UPD: Dear readers, stick a finger at me, where I wrote about the end of the world? So I do not see something ...
UPD: At the behest of the Haboobrosobstva there was a Chukchi reader, not a writer.
1. We celebrate science fiction or that of the promised books, movies, etc. I do not see humanity in the future:
First of all, I can’t help but go over the idea of ​​cosmic armadas :) Perhaps I will treat this issue somewhat hilariously, but still. So, nothing, I emphasize nothing, this will not happen! The maximum for which the spacecraft will be used, so this is what they are used for now - that is, for the study of nearby spaces. And there will be no filibusters in space, no matter how sorry (detective sarcasm :))
')
Arguments: cosmic armada disappear due to the fact that in the foreseeable space to fight is simply no one with whom this time. The need for mass construction of ships, and most importantly their formation in certain formations before humanity seems not to be expected (the factors change - I will change my mind).
Terms: now we could build if it were necessary, I am not against the ships as such, I am against fantasies on the theme of the star fleet.
Secondly, I would like to take a ride with the gusto and crunch on the idea of ​​creating a collective mind, etc. a la k / f matrix. I can only explain that the fact that people are extremely reluctant to go to collectivization, and what to say about such a scale ... No, it is impossible.
Arguments: one is already inside the thesis, as an example of the second: how do you imagine to collect even the computing powers of a rather large cluster of people with completely different logic of thinking, etc. It's like trying to shove a few hundreds of processors with a completely different architecture on one motherboard, if that’s clearer.
Timing: never again.
2. And what do I see in the future (and then you see it is not so and that it is not syak):
The development of nanotechnology in all fields: from medicine to nuclear physics. It will begin with the construction of the first so-called "assembler", namely the nanobots, whose main and perhaps only task will be to create their own kind. And if it can take several years to create it, even in terms of design, the next one will be assembled in a few hours, and the 20th or more in minutes, or even seconds. Most likely, given the size of the nanobots, they will be created individually for each of the tasks, be it atom splitting or removal of cancerous metastasis.
Timing: already begins, while the speed is low, but even according to Moore's law, it will increase, but nonlinearly. But in my opinion, so in five years nanobots will already be part of everyday life.
The development of the so-called complement of reality: gradually, what is now being implemented is not clumsily with the foot of the tooth, decentralized, etc. gradually enter into everyday life in the form of glasses, and possibly lenses. This will give a huge leap in terms of communications, advertising, etc.
Timing: again, it already begins, with a sufficient speed of development (for this, almost everything is already there) and investments from one to two years to develop and refine the technology and as many more to implement.
Centralization of information: now we are gradually trying to collect digital information in one way or another (and we started doing this for a long time, look towards encyclopedias), now there is the same Wikipedia and this is an obvious example. Gradually, the information will accumulate, convenient tools for working with it will appear. And, of course, it will also gradually centralize until it is in the same global repository (I'm not sure about that, to be honest).
Timing: I am tired of repeating, it is already going now (already very disgusting about the number of repetitions, but I'm sorry, they asked for it) if not only volunteers, but also government institutions for example, attach to this, I think large repositories will appear in a couple of years (really large and not the type of Wikipedia, with all due respect to her). And in 5-7 years it will be possible to count on a practically integral information space. Please pay attention to the amendments (government intervention, capital investment, etc.).
Absolute publicity: if now we see video cameras in most public places, then after a couple of years, video cameras will be almost everywhere, on the one hand you say these are wild oppression of human rights, etc. on the other hand, you will agree, how nice it is to know that a shahid (in no case do not start interethnic holivars, treat with understanding, if you wish, replace him with a terrorist), who starts to assemble a homemade bomb, tie him up before he finishes it? Otherwise, tens or even hundreds of people may die ... The pros are not obvious? How do you ask to be with your personal life? There are two options:
First: most likely your personal life will be of little interest to very few people and this information will simply be eliminated programmatically.
Second, over time, human morality will change to such an extent that the modern (or rather already somewhat outdated) concept of personal life will simply disappear as untenable. Even now admit that pantyhose advertising has a near-erotic character, and the basics of sex life are told in high school, what secrets are there about at least the sexual part of private life? In the same way, gradually, unfortunately, higher motives are also squeezed out, well, those that are not according to Freud :)
Timing: in the near future, I think there will be “officially” cameras on the streets, then maybe they will shove it under some sauce and into apartments, houses, etc. On the streets, I think they will appear in the next few years, but in houses ... In many entrances, cameras are already there, so it's not far off.
On this, for now, perhaps I’ll finish, I’m happy to hear your comments, the topic will be complemented by the most important (in my opinion, I'm sorry) of them. It is also possible that I myself will add additional points. I will ask you not to breed in the comments of holivars, in my opinion it is absolutely useless. Thank you for attention.
UPD: For now, I’m putting it in popular science because did not find a more suitable blog. Probably this topic can be attributed to amateur futurology)
UPD: Added deadlines and some arguments. The topic was not intended to be strictly scientific, this is more of a discussion, so please make a contribution if possible and not only criticize, I can do it no worse, believe you. Sincerely.
UPD: Dear readers, stick a finger at me, where I wrote about the end of the world? So I do not see something ...
UPD: At the behest of the Haboobrosobstva there was a Chukchi reader, not a writer.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/71402/
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