Market forecast based on Google query statistics Domestic Trends

A year ago, scientists from Google made a revolution in epidemiology , when they identified a pattern of search queries that is characteristic of a person infected with influenza ( scientific work in PDF ). Accordingly, by analyzing the entire volume of search queries, it was possible to predict the flu epidemic with high accuracy approximately two weeks before it began. This is how Google Flu Trends appeared .



In research laboratories, Google decided not to stop there. If we can predict the flu epidemic on search queries, it is easy to predict the movement of stock indices, they decided, wrote another scientific work ( PDF ) and launched Google Finance’s new feature, Google , designed specifically for investors.



The idea is that search queries are a leading indicator for the stock market, just as they are a leading indicator for a flu epidemic. These phenomena (strong market movement and viral epidemic) are generally similar to each other in many ways.

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Google Domestic Trends uses a similar principle to analyze the state of a particular economic sector. For each sector, a set of characteristic keywords is identified, and then a graph is constructed by the number of search queries. We immediately see how the interest of the public in this sector is changing, and we can make assumptions about how the demand for the relevant shares will change.