Approximation Horizon

Every new discovery or concept changes humanity.

The first reaction is plastic. Concepts and attention are shifting, giving place to a novelty. But this cannot continue at least for a reasonable time - reactive changes inevitably must occur - the novelty is accepted and becomes the center of condensation of new concepts, which entail changes in the general mentality and new ones appear. It is like a stone thrown into a pond - it gives rise to waves that, when reflected from objects on the surface, cause new waves. Or as a huge rock that blocked the river and turned it into a lake. Everything depends on the potential of the novelty and the society that has received it or generated it.

But in any case, from the inside of society, in its original form, primary plastic changes can be understood. The reaction to the primary perturbation is already poorly predictable, since it is necessary to take into account the unknown pressure caused by the novelty. Subsequent waves of the emergence of new concepts and reactions to them are most likely outside the imagination of the initial mentality, since they are based on new and unknown concepts so far.

Thus, proceeding from today's mentality, without understanding when and which concepts will arise and how the mentality will change in the process, the probability of a forecast with time, or rather changes, will tend to zero and will certainly be such after a more or less significant change.
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In other words - whatever the fantasists would fantasize and futurist futurists, everything will be different :)

On the whole, Lem’s idea is fucked up, of course, but I don’t remember where, from the reviews.