Artificial intelligence is easier to create than Windows Vista

Director of Novamente and Biomind, engaged in research in the field of bioinformatics and artificial intelligence, the author of 8 books and scientific articles Ben Herzel (Ben Goertzel) is sure that the creation of a full-fledged AI, superior to humans, is quite possible in the shortest time - in just five years - if large-scale scientific project, a kind of “AI Manhattan Project”.

Quite a large number of serious scientists today believe that superhuman AI, molecular general purpose nanosborders, loading the human mind into software containers and other stunning sci-fi things will turn into reality over the next century. Vernor Vinge, the great writer who coined the term singularity , predicted that this would happen before 2030. Ray Ray Kurzweil himself, the most famous preacher of singularity, speaks about the year 2045.

According to Kurzweil, in 2029 a human-level AI will be created by emulating the human brain. In his large article, Ben Herzl argues that this may happen much earlier thanks to a breakthrough in the field of specialized software. It turns out that not only the Novamente company, but other researchers have already come close to the design, which allows you to create systems of similar complexity (this is the design of the Novamente Cognition Engine). The exact date is impossible to specify, but the AI ​​can be created not only in ten, but even in three to five years.

If the US government organizes some kind of analogue of the famous Manhattan project, not only in the field of nuclear weapons, but to create general-purpose artificial intelligence, then researchers will almost certainly be able to cope with the task in five years, Herzel said. This is a big project, he says, but not as big as Windows Vista, for example.
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With this, Herzl stresses that the emergence of AI is the most important condition for the onset of singularity. After being born into the world, artificial intelligence will begin to very quickly raise its own level, so that the onset of singularity will become a matter of several years, or even months.