Big brother knows what you'll be looking for

Google knows that you will be looking for the whole of the next year. Well, of course, not quite everything that you google - after all, it is impossible to predict a new scandal with a celebrity or a new phenomenon of social media - but if you take in general average requests, you know.

In a recently published article, Google says that it is working on a search trend system.

I am not a mathematician, so I was satisfied with the overall result:

For each trend of interest, we take the point t in time, which will be removed a year ago from the current moment. We calculate the forecast for the year based on the history that has been accumulated earlier than the t point and compare it with the real search history.

If the error does not exceed a certain threshold, then the search sequence is considered predictable .

A couple of trivia!
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Some results of the research:

• More than half (> 50%) of popular Google search sequences are predictable for 12 months and have an average prediction error of about 12%.
• Accordingly, the smaller half is unpredictable in the current model.
• Some categories have relatively high predictability. For example, in the category Health - 74% of search queries are predictable, Food - 67% and Travel - 65%.

The graph clearly demonstrates these results.



9 months the error does not exceed 12%. Good result.