When will AI be smarter than man?
A rare user did not hear about Moore's law. Everyone knows that technology evolves exponentially. Computers run faster and faster. And more and more people are afraid that cars will take over the world. Some science fiction promises horrors, others a bright future. Everyone wants to quickly decide: When will he come?
Do we need to invent it? Science fiction writers have repeatedly hypothesized that there is a certain limit to the complexity of the cybernetic system, overcoming of which leads to spontaneous self-organization of the system’s self-awareness, the transition of quantity into quality. (Stanislav Lem, Lympheater Formula).
It can be assumed that this limit is not lower than the performance of the human brain. Estimate the performance of the brain (P brain). Multiply the number of neurons in the brain by the average number of connections between them and the average frequency of impulses passing through the connections. The numbers vary significantly depending on many factors, such as the proportion of neurons used at one time, the proportion of neurons involved in mental activity, etc. As a result, you can get a performance of about 10 ^ (15 ... 18) operations per second. What kind of operations? Given the accuracy of the calculations, this is an irrelevant question. Error in performance gives an error in time a maximum of ten years.
Vertically set aside system performance, and horizontally time. On the graph, display the performance of the personal computer. Because growth is exponential, then on a logarithmic scale the growth will look like an ascending straight line (blue). And the performance of the brain. Suppose that the performance of the brain in the coming decades will not change significantly, i.e. let's draw it in the form of a horizontal straight line (blue).
')
From the graph it is clear that for about the fourth decade of this century, the performance of a personal computer will reach the performance of the brain.
Can you breathe and live peacefully until retirement? However so. Any self-respecting country is diligently building or planning to build supercomputers. Because for them, Moore's law also works, then the direct growth of productivity (green) will run parallel to the first.
Of course, already anxious. But nevertheless for the remained ten years we will think up something. Are there these ten years? After all, the person is under a billion and they are united into a network. It is good that not everyone is connected via high-speed connection. But there are illegal botnets? There are legal. Probably the largest from Google. Let's draw a red straight line reflecting the total performance of a certain botnet.
And now what i can do? Is he already with us? Is he somewhere near? Sometimes talking to Google I am amazed at its shrewdness ...
Do we need to invent it? Science fiction writers have repeatedly hypothesized that there is a certain limit to the complexity of the cybernetic system, overcoming of which leads to spontaneous self-organization of the system’s self-awareness, the transition of quantity into quality. (Stanislav Lem, Lympheater Formula).
It can be assumed that this limit is not lower than the performance of the human brain. Estimate the performance of the brain (P brain). Multiply the number of neurons in the brain by the average number of connections between them and the average frequency of impulses passing through the connections. The numbers vary significantly depending on many factors, such as the proportion of neurons used at one time, the proportion of neurons involved in mental activity, etc. As a result, you can get a performance of about 10 ^ (15 ... 18) operations per second. What kind of operations? Given the accuracy of the calculations, this is an irrelevant question. Error in performance gives an error in time a maximum of ten years.
Vertically set aside system performance, and horizontally time. On the graph, display the performance of the personal computer. Because growth is exponential, then on a logarithmic scale the growth will look like an ascending straight line (blue). And the performance of the brain. Suppose that the performance of the brain in the coming decades will not change significantly, i.e. let's draw it in the form of a horizontal straight line (blue).
')
From the graph it is clear that for about the fourth decade of this century, the performance of a personal computer will reach the performance of the brain.
Can you breathe and live peacefully until retirement? However so. Any self-respecting country is diligently building or planning to build supercomputers. Because for them, Moore's law also works, then the direct growth of productivity (green) will run parallel to the first.
Of course, already anxious. But nevertheless for the remained ten years we will think up something. Are there these ten years? After all, the person is under a billion and they are united into a network. It is good that not everyone is connected via high-speed connection. But there are illegal botnets? There are legal. Probably the largest from Google. Let's draw a red straight line reflecting the total performance of a certain botnet.
And now what i can do? Is he already with us? Is he somewhere near? Sometimes talking to Google I am amazed at its shrewdness ...
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/66567/
All Articles