In my article on devaluation, I promised that I would describe an algorithm for how to earn 30% per annum in rubles. Keep the promise.


Supertanker - not an option for a private person


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Treasures of Morgan

Looking through the news, I found an article stating that Morgan Stanley was looking for a place to rent a supertanker. It would seem, why the bank supertanker? It turns out sometimes not do without it. The thing is that in the futures market sometimes a unique situation arises - in the event that the price of long-range futures far exceeds the spot price, then it is profitable to buy oil now, pump it into a tanker, and sell futures for it. After that, the tanker dangles over the ocean for several months, and then arrives in port in triumph and Morgan Stanley delivers oil on the previously sold futures. An attractive scheme - bought cheaply, provided futures with guaranteed sale at a high price, then delivered the goods to the buyer, almost without risk if the Somali pirates did not sink. The only problem is the reluctance to tinker with these tankers-shmankera, carry oil to the city of Cushing and there to engage in the logistics of barrels.

Russian contango

The situation in the market when the futures for the supply of goods in the distant future has a higher price than the current market price for the same product is called contango . This situation is normal - the goods must be stored somewhere all the time, which costs money. However, anomalous contango sometimes develops - if consumers anticipate a shortage of goods in the future, the difference between current prices and prices in the future becomes much more than the price of storage of goods. This situation and use investment banks to earn money. And then I began to think, what can I buy in large quantities, hold it for several months and then deliver to the client? And all this in a small apartment. I went through all the commodities, but all of them found inappropriate for this scheme. I was a little interested in gold - I am quite able to store 100-200 (3-6 kg) ounces of gold under my bed and if the difference in prices of futures and spot is $ 10, then 1000 or 2000 dollars of income is already a good sum. But in Russia it does not work, gold in bullion for individuals levies a draconian 18% VAT, which instantly makes the scheme inoperative.

Decision

In Russia, however, there is a product that is convenient to store, operations with which are not taxed and which is available to an individual - this product is the US dollar. Actually, you can buy as many dollars as you want without commissions and taxes, sell futures on the RTS in the FORTS section and then deliver to the client. Risk-free scheme, i.e. You sold futures for $ 100, but under the pillow you have $ 100, which you will give to the client. Since you bought cheaper than sold, there will be a difference, which will be your income.

Let us estimate the profitability of this scheme.

For example, take futures with the calculation in December 2009 on the US dollar Si-12.09.

We take data from

RTS
Central Bank of the Russian Federation



It is easy to see that the maximum difference between the ruble exchange rate and the futures price was January 20, 2009 - 10 rubles 58 kopecks. those. if at that moment you would buy dollars and sell futures, then the profit would be (10.58 / 32.90) * 100 = 32% per annum in rubles, guaranteed. In fact, the profit would be even greater, since dollars can be placed for a year in a bank at 8% per annum, i.e. 40% per annum in rubles with risks equal to ordinary risks of a deposit in a bank. The only problem is that you will receive income in rubles, and if you simply transfer your savings into dollars, then your income through these months will probably be even higher - in rubles, of course. As in the case of any exchange transactions, the window of opportunity opens for a short time, and then closes - as soon as the devaluation expectations softened, the difference immediately fell to 1-2 rubles.

Where to get a loan?

So, we have a risk-free earnings scheme of 30% per annum in rubles. How do we maximize the effect of this scheme? The answer is to take somewhere a huge ruble loan. Indeed, if the average person has 50,000-100,000 savings, he will receive 15,000–3,000,000 rubles of profit from this scheme, but if we take a ruble loan of a million rubles at 20% per annum, the profit will be 300,000 (income from the scheme) -200,000 ( jar) = 100,000.

Conclusion

The media constantly insist that banks should give loans to the population and businesses at low interest rates - 10-15% per annum in rubles. Powerful devaluation expectations, however, completely exclude such a development - if the difference between futures for a dollar and the current rate of 3 rubles (10%) and a dollar deposit can be placed at 8% per annum, then rates below 18% are basically impossible. A private person should remember that the more schemes of work in the financial market you know, the greater the chances of getting into the open window of opportunity.