Today I attended a meeting of the RSPP Commission on Telecommunications and Information Technologies.
On the agenda was a discussion of the prospects for IP telephony in Russia.
Valery Yermakov, First Deputy General Director of OJSC Megafon, made a report, in which he clearly disliked IP-telephony as a phenomenon. The words “cannibalize traffic”, “parasitize” were heard. Yermakov, and his colleagues or, rather, competitors from other companies, are not very happy that IP-telephony operators use the existing infrastructure for their enrichment, and the network owners do not get anything from this. The subscription fee and the cost of traffic in the calculation of "Megaphone" and others like them do not want to take.
In addition, the operators are clearly afraid of the fact that subscribers will flow into IP-telephony and take away their income. According to data provided by Vitaliy Kotov, Senior Vice-President of TTK, “if in 2008 the MG / Mn communication services in the Russian Federation turned out to be IP-telephony operators (such as Skype), then the market size in monetary terms would decrease 10-15 times from 2.6 to 0.26 billion USD. ”
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According to the Ministry of Communications and Mass Media, the market of voice services in Russia in 2008 amounted to 972 billion rubles, that is, 80% of the entire communications services market.
According to the estimated data of TTK, the customers of SIP-operators for 1 paid minute consume 10 free on-net minutes, the cost of paid services from IP-telephony operators is 1.5-2 times lower than that of traditional operators.
At the same time, Skype revenue for 2008 amounted to 551 million USD, and the number of subscribers as of January 1, 2009 reached 405 million! With such cosmic numbers of users and low ARPU (average revenue per user) of 11 US cents does not seem funny. For comparison, according to Kotov, ARPU of individuals for mg / m services via fixed telephony amounts to 3.11 USD today.
Ermakov sees two ways to solve problems that have arisen for operators with the development of IP-telephony:
- protect investments and fight VoIP-services;
- provide similar services.
It is clear that for users the second way is the most attractive. But, unfortunately, it’s not a fact that in the event that operators start providing similar services, this competition will be fair. There is a big risk that Skype will simply be banned in Russia. And this will surely happen if Skype does not connect to
SORM (telephone tapping system).
Yermakov in his report puts pressure on the fact that now the voice will pass through channels uncontrolled by the state. And by 2010, according to some calculations, 40% of the traffic will pass through IP telephony operators. Also, operators very much hope to draw the attention of officials to the fact that Skype earns money in Russia and does not pay taxes here, it does not invest in infrastructure. And users, according to Yermakov, should be wary of service providers who are not officially represented in Russia, their activities are not controlled, therefore the interests of subscribers are not protected.
As a result, at today's meeting, the RSPP Commission on Telecom and IT decided to create a working group that will propose measures to improve the regulatory legal framework.
The main legislative problem in this story is that calls between fixed phones and SIP are not regulated at all. But it’s not a fact that the measures offered by Megafon with TTR will be in the hands of users, I am afraid that exactly the opposite will happen. Operators are afraid of competition and strive to keep their sources of income, to leave things as they are.
Therefore, the risk that Skype will still close is very great.
Perhaps this meeting was the first step in the attack on this company. And along with Skype, gentlemen will certainly hook the rest. Including those who are only going to enter the market of IP-telephony.