Factory rumors incorrectly perceives another poll about the fate of Windows 7

Free (and short :)) translation of blogs.zdnet.com/Bott/?p=1181

The company ScriptLogic, has published the results of a recent study of plans for switching to Windows 7. The results of the survey, which was attended by 1,100 IT specialists, can be found here: scriptlogic.http.internapcdn.net/scriptlogic/downloads/whitepapers/Windows_7_Survey_Final.pdf are just numbers, no analyzes. ScriptLogic decided that anyone who reads will be able to correctly interpret the results of the study.

On the report download page (http://www.scriptlogic.com/landing/google/da/windows-7-migration.asp) there is a brief summary, as many as two paragraphs that a competent person will read in 30 seconds (and reading by syllables - in a couple of minutes):

The main objective of the study was to assess the impact of the financial crisis on the IT infrastructure. Despite its impact on plans for the near future, 41% of firms [allocated to ScriptLogic] plan a full transition to Windows 7 by the end of 2010. This is a very serious application, especially compared to the market share of Windows XP for the first year - 12-14%. [highlighted by me]. The market share of Windows Vista for the first year is 8-10%, then it goes with about the same lag from XP - 25% in 2.5 years versus about 29% in XP (added by a translator.)

In addition, in the market segment with which ScriptLogic works, it is customary to change the OS only when purchasing new equipment. So the fact that almost half of the organizations surveyed plan to make a massive transition in 2009-2010 suggests that Windiws 7 is well received by small and medium-sized businesses. [highlighted by me]

It seems like everything is clear, yes? Full transition in 40% of firms in the first year.
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A new study confirms the results of two other surveys that I wrote about on April 16 ( Will Windows 7 be Microsoft's biggest business hit ever? ). The growth of the market share to 41% in 14 months practically coincides with the schedule I made for the April article and which I quote here. The blue line is the projected market share of Windows 7 for three years, the orange line is the real market share of Windows XP for the same time:



Based on this, anybody should decide that IT publications will make the following conclusion on the results of the research: Windows 7 will be the most successful Microsoft OS. So?

Depressively representative sample of Google News headline:

* Reuters, 6 out of 10 companies do not plan to switch to Windows 7
* PC World: Anyone going to upgrade to Windows 7? Most experts say no
* Electronista: 60% of firms are not going to switch to Windows 7
* Computerworld: Survey: 6 out of 10 companies are not going to switch to Windows 7
* Daily Finance: The world does not pay attention to the release of Windows 7
* All Things Digital: Six out of ten companies suffer from post-traumatic Vista syndrome
* Information Week Weblog: Research shows that Windows 7 will not take root
* CNET News: Survey: Many firms do not plan to upgrade to Windows 7

What?

In all these articles, only John Paczkowski from All Things Digital reluctantly noted “a high level of OS interest, especially given the financial crisis.” In the last sentence, after the words that Windows 7 was “ignored” because of “indecision” by “timid” IT specialists.

Yes, high level, but not high enough. For today's jaded IT press, anything less than 100% a day after the release is a huge failure. It sounds about the same as “Star Trek of 2009 failed at the box office because 268 million Americans did not watch it” (fees of $ 377 million with a budget of 150 million).

Meanwhile, just yesterday PC World published a study by Al Gillen, an IDC analyst who predicts that by 2011 75% of computers will come with Windows 7, and in three years it will reach global domination .

What, not 100%? Vendekapets!