BitTorrent will cause traffic congestion on backbones
The technological forecast of Telecommunications Predictions - TMT Trends 2007 from the auditing company Deloitte was published a few days ago and immediately panic articles appeared in the business press with comments from experts. Let's try to figure out whether there is a reason for panic.
Deloitte analysts say that last year the volume of traffic on the web grew rapidly. For example, the load on the world's largest hub AMS-IX (Amsterdam exchange point), through which one-fifth of European traffic passes, increased on average by 7.4% per month. In February 2006, daily traffic surpassed the level of 1 petabyte, and in October 2007, according to forecasts, it should approach the level of 2 petabyte. For the year through AMS-IX will pass about 1 exabyte of data. Naturally, such volumes have to face for the first time.
The rapid growth of the Internet can lead to excessive load on some backbones. The expansion of the capacity of communication channels is not very active, because the prices for data transmission have fallen dramatically in recent times.
First of all, the crisis will hit the Internet providers in North America, analysts said Deloitte. The increased consumption of traffic in their networks may lead to the fact that providers will not be able to provide an acceptable quality of service, and the work of the Internet for users will be subjectively very slow. In the history of the Internet, this has already happened in 1998 , when traffic volumes increased dramatically, and the American PSTN network was not ready for this.
')
There are two main trends pushing the Internet into a crisis. First, the further growth in the number of users, whose number has already exceeded one billion. Secondly, and more importantly, the rapidly growing popularity of online video and P2P networks. Experts have been talking about this issue for a long time. According to CacheLogic statistics, file-sharing traffic accounts for up to 60% of all traffic on the Internet , and about 60% of file-sharing traffic is video. With the advent of open-access HD-DVD files (19 GB each), the share of video can increase dramatically.
Most of the Internet traffic in 2007 will be provided by illegal file-sharing networks. In addition to them, legal video stores and Internet TV of a new generation are gaining popularity on the Web. Video chat will gradually replace voice communication in 2007. Since video chat requires a tenfold large band (400 Kbps instead of 40 Kbps), the threat to communication channels becomes obvious.
It should be noted that the main message of the forecast of Deloitte is the inevitable increase in prices for international transmission of traffic. This implies that price increases will necessarily lead to a leveling out of the situation and expansion of communication channels. If the crisis happens, it will be short-lived anyway, and there is no reason for panic. Actually, this is well understood by Russian experts who gave comments for the Vedomosti newspaper . For example, the general director of Corbina Telecom, Alexander Malis, says that large operators can easily get money from banks for the expansion of communication channels and quickly return these investments.
Deloitte analysts say that last year the volume of traffic on the web grew rapidly. For example, the load on the world's largest hub AMS-IX (Amsterdam exchange point), through which one-fifth of European traffic passes, increased on average by 7.4% per month. In February 2006, daily traffic surpassed the level of 1 petabyte, and in October 2007, according to forecasts, it should approach the level of 2 petabyte. For the year through AMS-IX will pass about 1 exabyte of data. Naturally, such volumes have to face for the first time.
The rapid growth of the Internet can lead to excessive load on some backbones. The expansion of the capacity of communication channels is not very active, because the prices for data transmission have fallen dramatically in recent times.
First of all, the crisis will hit the Internet providers in North America, analysts said Deloitte. The increased consumption of traffic in their networks may lead to the fact that providers will not be able to provide an acceptable quality of service, and the work of the Internet for users will be subjectively very slow. In the history of the Internet, this has already happened in 1998 , when traffic volumes increased dramatically, and the American PSTN network was not ready for this.
')
There are two main trends pushing the Internet into a crisis. First, the further growth in the number of users, whose number has already exceeded one billion. Secondly, and more importantly, the rapidly growing popularity of online video and P2P networks. Experts have been talking about this issue for a long time. According to CacheLogic statistics, file-sharing traffic accounts for up to 60% of all traffic on the Internet , and about 60% of file-sharing traffic is video. With the advent of open-access HD-DVD files (19 GB each), the share of video can increase dramatically.
Most of the Internet traffic in 2007 will be provided by illegal file-sharing networks. In addition to them, legal video stores and Internet TV of a new generation are gaining popularity on the Web. Video chat will gradually replace voice communication in 2007. Since video chat requires a tenfold large band (400 Kbps instead of 40 Kbps), the threat to communication channels becomes obvious.
It should be noted that the main message of the forecast of Deloitte is the inevitable increase in prices for international transmission of traffic. This implies that price increases will necessarily lead to a leveling out of the situation and expansion of communication channels. If the crisis happens, it will be short-lived anyway, and there is no reason for panic. Actually, this is well understood by Russian experts who gave comments for the Vedomosti newspaper . For example, the general director of Corbina Telecom, Alexander Malis, says that large operators can easily get money from banks for the expansion of communication channels and quickly return these investments.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/4964/
All Articles