Web 2.0 How to evaluate the success of an idea?
Any web project starts with an idea. Ideally, when we came up with something, we sketched a prototype for the week, received a positive response and began to invest more money and time in a more long-term development in order to make a profit in the future.
This is usually not the case. As a prototype, a successful project is taken in terms of attendance, and investors start investing money in it, regardless of whether it brings money at the time point X. or not. Further, the project takes off more in attendance and money is being tried to extract from it (and this is far from being always possible, provided that substantial investments from 500 thousand dollars are being driven in - although again what is considered solid - if compared with the real, the entry point is much lower).
How to understand it is worth investing time and money in a project at the stages when the project is not yet born (at the idea stage), at the stage when the project is already socially successful - i.e. quite popular, but it does not earn money?
')
For some reason (in principle, it is even understandable), investors discard the first stage. And I want to highlight it in more detail for those who are interested in it - for example, web studios, production centers, small teams that develop web projects for customers who want to launch their own web 2.0 project.
1. Concept.
After analyzing the market, after conducting a marketing research, we can get the following picture:
- our idea is unique, there are no analogues on the market
- our idea is not unique - there are analogues in the Russian and Western market
- our idea is not unique - there is an analogue in the western market
- our idea is a compilation of several ideas
if our idea is not unique, we analyze the competitors - this is by the way a nice option - because there is something to push off of - although there is rarely a cute option, when we can say the same-purpose “fi — our competitors are garbage, we will tear them up like a hot-water dog — for some reason”
if our idea is unique, this is both good and bad. Just because we have nothing to cling to, except for an unshakable belief in ourselves on the one hand, on the other hand, there is a chance - the idea will shoot ... and the rule reigns on the Internet - the one who managed - he ate :)
Example - classmates, auto-ru, atern, etc. In a niche there may be 2-3 more or less promoted projects (the third is usually an outsider) - but the others are trudging far behind, the second project shoots only if it has found its niche ( very different) in relation to the first - for example, classmates and VKontakte - both projects seem to be social. networks - but with completely different positioning and different interfaces - classmates at a quick glance seem simpler "for everyone", project-for-one-day-but-more-accessible, VKontakte-more-serious-project-with-more-complex -interfaces not to mention the fact that we hear about classmates (heard before) as a site for searching classmates, and the initial positioning of VKontakte is a site for students.
nevertheless - where is the third social network of the same scale? (moikrug? - lags behind very much, although due to the propaganda of the crisis, it can be a good shot)
for example, the Internet - Livinternet, which connected the tests almost immediately after, always had a smaller amount of tests and attendance (the Internet example is not as good as the tests for them were always a side service), the main competitor - Beon entered the market of tests later, but at the same time It has always been a different audience - the audience of the aaterna fought with the Beona audience - and the word Beon was mentioned contemptuously (although it served as an additional advertisement of Beona :)) - like they say they are fools of glamor and emo, and we are here on the atera goth rockers and punks.
to take younger friends to attend in a narrow niche - hors. ru and ekvestrian.ru - hors. ru coming up to the Internet later already rose for a whole year and overtook in attendance only due to its positioning towards ekvestrian - ekvestrian was positioned as a respected expert publication where everything is super superb professionals, and horse-ru was positioned as a community where anyone could find like-minded people and get advice from the same ordinary mortals.
Those. as we see, the niche is usually occupied by those who came and positioned themselves first and push out of this niche being not the second but the third is difficult - if at all possible ...
In general, I want to say that everything is possible, but usually the level of the budget exceeds everything possible.
for example blogs - Learn is the only blog service that has risen as a blog service. Mail-ru has spun up their blogs for one simple reason: they already had attendance ... by the way, what is happening with the live Internet blogs now hasn’t been seen for a long time, and earlier they were in the lead ...
However, Yandex-py blogs are almost a dead project, which at the expense of virtuality :) in virtual reality (namely, broadcasts) tries to show vigorous activity - nevertheless, the Yandex-ru blogs are a stillborn child - although they have some chance due to Again, a huge audience some way to breathe life into blogs.
Here we must understand and is there a chance for a small company to win a big one?
A successful algorithm is simple -
A unique idea or save-and-paste of global western service not yet accumulated in runet - a shot or intensive development - i.e. a rather rapid and stable growth of attendance at least up to 20-50 thousand unik a day - large investments - and voila - you are on a horse :)
Is it possible to call an unsuccessful project which occupies a certain niche, but at the same time it is still well attended? (about this in the next. If there is time)
How to move from the stage of writing - assessing the viability of the concept to the stage of development and then the stage of launching and promoting - the next time :), but for now a small note for investors ...
If the project does not have 100,000 unique per day, you need to think very hard before buying out some share in it. On the other hand, such a project is likely to be bought cheaply — cheaply. Especially if it does not bring profit.
If the project has 100,000 unique employees per day and does not bring profit - this is an occasion to think about whether it is worth buying it at all :) (If there is no appropriate structure and an exact calculation of how to make profit from this project - for example, arrange a PIF and attract 10 more such projects or use some other financial mechanism in which the money of the project itself will play a role not so significant)
On the other hand, in the Internet project it is very easy to calculate future income if there is income in the current period and this is income from services ...
for example, we know that 10% of users out of 1000 spend a total of $ 100 per month. This means that, according to an optimistic forecast, if we increase the base to 10,000 (real increase with regular clearing of the base from dead users, etc.), we will have $ 1,000 in revenue. With a pessimistic forecast, we can enter a coefficient, i.e. assume that with the growth of the base the percentage of payers will decrease. The coefficient depends only on the specifics of promotional activities, the theme of the site and the personal pessimism of the manager :)
And then we just have to calculate how much it costs us personally to register a user on reputable resources that provide quality Central Asia for us (and not focus on any standards - but on the basis of experience), then calculate how much it costs to support the project - again on the basis of our own experience, and not on the basis of what we saw on the website hh.ru, the salary of a programmer owning PHP is 40-60 thousand. and we get a calculation - do we ever have a chance to get close to the payback point of the project (even if we don’t take the discount rate into account) - which generally turns our idea of happiness upside down :))
to be continued…
This is usually not the case. As a prototype, a successful project is taken in terms of attendance, and investors start investing money in it, regardless of whether it brings money at the time point X. or not. Further, the project takes off more in attendance and money is being tried to extract from it (and this is far from being always possible, provided that substantial investments from 500 thousand dollars are being driven in - although again what is considered solid - if compared with the real, the entry point is much lower).
How to understand it is worth investing time and money in a project at the stages when the project is not yet born (at the idea stage), at the stage when the project is already socially successful - i.e. quite popular, but it does not earn money?
')
For some reason (in principle, it is even understandable), investors discard the first stage. And I want to highlight it in more detail for those who are interested in it - for example, web studios, production centers, small teams that develop web projects for customers who want to launch their own web 2.0 project.
1. Concept.
After analyzing the market, after conducting a marketing research, we can get the following picture:
- our idea is unique, there are no analogues on the market
- our idea is not unique - there are analogues in the Russian and Western market
- our idea is not unique - there is an analogue in the western market
- our idea is a compilation of several ideas
if our idea is not unique, we analyze the competitors - this is by the way a nice option - because there is something to push off of - although there is rarely a cute option, when we can say the same-purpose “fi — our competitors are garbage, we will tear them up like a hot-water dog — for some reason”
if our idea is unique, this is both good and bad. Just because we have nothing to cling to, except for an unshakable belief in ourselves on the one hand, on the other hand, there is a chance - the idea will shoot ... and the rule reigns on the Internet - the one who managed - he ate :)
Example - classmates, auto-ru, atern, etc. In a niche there may be 2-3 more or less promoted projects (the third is usually an outsider) - but the others are trudging far behind, the second project shoots only if it has found its niche ( very different) in relation to the first - for example, classmates and VKontakte - both projects seem to be social. networks - but with completely different positioning and different interfaces - classmates at a quick glance seem simpler "for everyone", project-for-one-day-but-more-accessible, VKontakte-more-serious-project-with-more-complex -interfaces not to mention the fact that we hear about classmates (heard before) as a site for searching classmates, and the initial positioning of VKontakte is a site for students.
nevertheless - where is the third social network of the same scale? (moikrug? - lags behind very much, although due to the propaganda of the crisis, it can be a good shot)
for example, the Internet - Livinternet, which connected the tests almost immediately after, always had a smaller amount of tests and attendance (the Internet example is not as good as the tests for them were always a side service), the main competitor - Beon entered the market of tests later, but at the same time It has always been a different audience - the audience of the aaterna fought with the Beona audience - and the word Beon was mentioned contemptuously (although it served as an additional advertisement of Beona :)) - like they say they are fools of glamor and emo, and we are here on the atera goth rockers and punks.
to take younger friends to attend in a narrow niche - hors. ru and ekvestrian.ru - hors. ru coming up to the Internet later already rose for a whole year and overtook in attendance only due to its positioning towards ekvestrian - ekvestrian was positioned as a respected expert publication where everything is super superb professionals, and horse-ru was positioned as a community where anyone could find like-minded people and get advice from the same ordinary mortals.
Those. as we see, the niche is usually occupied by those who came and positioned themselves first and push out of this niche being not the second but the third is difficult - if at all possible ...
In general, I want to say that everything is possible, but usually the level of the budget exceeds everything possible.
for example blogs - Learn is the only blog service that has risen as a blog service. Mail-ru has spun up their blogs for one simple reason: they already had attendance ... by the way, what is happening with the live Internet blogs now hasn’t been seen for a long time, and earlier they were in the lead ...
However, Yandex-py blogs are almost a dead project, which at the expense of virtuality :) in virtual reality (namely, broadcasts) tries to show vigorous activity - nevertheless, the Yandex-ru blogs are a stillborn child - although they have some chance due to Again, a huge audience some way to breathe life into blogs.
Here we must understand and is there a chance for a small company to win a big one?
A successful algorithm is simple -
A unique idea or save-and-paste of global western service not yet accumulated in runet - a shot or intensive development - i.e. a rather rapid and stable growth of attendance at least up to 20-50 thousand unik a day - large investments - and voila - you are on a horse :)
Is it possible to call an unsuccessful project which occupies a certain niche, but at the same time it is still well attended? (about this in the next. If there is time)
How to move from the stage of writing - assessing the viability of the concept to the stage of development and then the stage of launching and promoting - the next time :), but for now a small note for investors ...
If the project does not have 100,000 unique per day, you need to think very hard before buying out some share in it. On the other hand, such a project is likely to be bought cheaply — cheaply. Especially if it does not bring profit.
If the project has 100,000 unique employees per day and does not bring profit - this is an occasion to think about whether it is worth buying it at all :) (If there is no appropriate structure and an exact calculation of how to make profit from this project - for example, arrange a PIF and attract 10 more such projects or use some other financial mechanism in which the money of the project itself will play a role not so significant)
On the other hand, in the Internet project it is very easy to calculate future income if there is income in the current period and this is income from services ...
for example, we know that 10% of users out of 1000 spend a total of $ 100 per month. This means that, according to an optimistic forecast, if we increase the base to 10,000 (real increase with regular clearing of the base from dead users, etc.), we will have $ 1,000 in revenue. With a pessimistic forecast, we can enter a coefficient, i.e. assume that with the growth of the base the percentage of payers will decrease. The coefficient depends only on the specifics of promotional activities, the theme of the site and the personal pessimism of the manager :)
And then we just have to calculate how much it costs us personally to register a user on reputable resources that provide quality Central Asia for us (and not focus on any standards - but on the basis of experience), then calculate how much it costs to support the project - again on the basis of our own experience, and not on the basis of what we saw on the website hh.ru, the salary of a programmer owning PHP is 40-60 thousand. and we get a calculation - do we ever have a chance to get close to the payback point of the project (even if we don’t take the discount rate into account) - which generally turns our idea of happiness upside down :))
to be continued…
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/49207/
All Articles