2G and 3G - development forecasts for 2007
2G mobile communications
In 2006, the penetration of GSM services in Russia exceeded 100%. That is, the line beyond which the intensive growth of the subscriber base is no longer possible was overcome. The market is divided into three major players - MTS, VimpelCom and MegaFon, which control it 32% and 22% and 24% respectively.
"It is extremely clear that the emergence of a new federal player in the GSM segment is not only unlikely, but also practically impossible," said J'son & Partners researchers. They point out that the only exception may result in the consolidation of the existing GSM assets of Svyazinvest under a single brand. It is possible that one of the independent regional operators will join this alliance. Meanwhile, regional operators are themselves uniting into alliances - for example, the newly formed “Network Company” includes the Tele2, SMARTS and “New Telephone Company” cellular companies. This was done, we recall, in connection with the behavior of the state tender for obtaining 3G licenses.
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3G mobile communications
According to J & P experts, GSM market participants are striving to deploy WCDMA networks for the benefit of image. “The operator, who will deploy the first WCDMA network, will be positioned as the most high-tech,” they say. For companies with stocks on international exchanges, this event will be even more important - the exchange should respond positively to the launch of WCDMA networks in the vast Russian territory (despite the failure of similar projects in Europe).
J & P predicts success in the state competition to two participants - Mobile TeleSystems OJSC and VimpelCom OJSC. The third license for the construction of Russian 3G networks may be issued to a company that is not part of the “Big Three”. In particular, a player who does not work directly on the market of mobile communication services in GSM / CDMA / DAMPS standards has a chance to become the last winner. According to the researchers, such a candidate will probably have backbone resources, exploiting one of their wireless access technologies in the regions. The second scenario will be issuing not three, but four licenses in 2007 ...
The first WCDMA network will be put into trial operation between the third and fourth quarter of 2007, predicts J & P. Moreover, the launch region will be selected solely on the basis of the availability of a free frequency resource. Further construction of WCDMA networks in the country will be extremely restrained.
An optimal situation is emerging for the deployment of 3G in Russia, researchers say. Both in the market and in the hands of consumers there is a significant amount of dual-mode GSM / WCDMA mobile devices. Thus, the Russian experience in building WCDMA networks may turn out to be more successful than the European one, since the introduction of technology in Europe in 2003-2005 is in Europe. it was somewhat premature - there was no formed subscriber demand. In Russia, there is now a need for mobile IP traffic. It aggravates its low bandwidth penetration in the regions.
In 2006, the penetration of GSM services in Russia exceeded 100%. That is, the line beyond which the intensive growth of the subscriber base is no longer possible was overcome. The market is divided into three major players - MTS, VimpelCom and MegaFon, which control it 32% and 22% and 24% respectively.
"It is extremely clear that the emergence of a new federal player in the GSM segment is not only unlikely, but also practically impossible," said J'son & Partners researchers. They point out that the only exception may result in the consolidation of the existing GSM assets of Svyazinvest under a single brand. It is possible that one of the independent regional operators will join this alliance. Meanwhile, regional operators are themselves uniting into alliances - for example, the newly formed “Network Company” includes the Tele2, SMARTS and “New Telephone Company” cellular companies. This was done, we recall, in connection with the behavior of the state tender for obtaining 3G licenses.
')
3G mobile communications
According to J & P experts, GSM market participants are striving to deploy WCDMA networks for the benefit of image. “The operator, who will deploy the first WCDMA network, will be positioned as the most high-tech,” they say. For companies with stocks on international exchanges, this event will be even more important - the exchange should respond positively to the launch of WCDMA networks in the vast Russian territory (despite the failure of similar projects in Europe).
J & P predicts success in the state competition to two participants - Mobile TeleSystems OJSC and VimpelCom OJSC. The third license for the construction of Russian 3G networks may be issued to a company that is not part of the “Big Three”. In particular, a player who does not work directly on the market of mobile communication services in GSM / CDMA / DAMPS standards has a chance to become the last winner. According to the researchers, such a candidate will probably have backbone resources, exploiting one of their wireless access technologies in the regions. The second scenario will be issuing not three, but four licenses in 2007 ...
The first WCDMA network will be put into trial operation between the third and fourth quarter of 2007, predicts J & P. Moreover, the launch region will be selected solely on the basis of the availability of a free frequency resource. Further construction of WCDMA networks in the country will be extremely restrained.
An optimal situation is emerging for the deployment of 3G in Russia, researchers say. Both in the market and in the hands of consumers there is a significant amount of dual-mode GSM / WCDMA mobile devices. Thus, the Russian experience in building WCDMA networks may turn out to be more successful than the European one, since the introduction of technology in Europe in 2003-2005 is in Europe. it was somewhat premature - there was no formed subscriber demand. In Russia, there is now a need for mobile IP traffic. It aggravates its low bandwidth penetration in the regions.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/4917/
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