A bit about the crisis
Recently I read an article about the crisis on habrhabr.ru/blogs/i_am_clever/48541 , and immediately wanted to insert my 5 kopecks.
The author begins with the fact that he declares a crisis systemic, and then reduces it to an economic one. Not! High fever is not the cause, but the consequence of the disease. The real reasons are deeper and worse.
Consider a model of unlimited population growth (no constraining factors) Then the population size in each subsequent period of time is equal to the number in the previous multiplied by a certain factor N1 = kN0.
This dependence is known in biology under the name of the Ollie curve (with two liters) and it approximates well the size of the human population.
The transition from the finite difference to the ordinary equation gives us the dependence / N = A / (Tt). A = 3.12E + 11 people. As you can see, the formula of unlimited growth has its limit set by the coefficient T. So, the MOST INTERESTING - this formula describes well the growth of the population in the historical range, but then the coefficient T is 2020. You probably heard this number. Now you should understand where it came from.
These facts are known for quite some time. At the dawn of perestroika, an agitator came to our school. Who told that in the history of mankind there were several such crises: 1 - they ate mammoths, 2 - they burned forests in north Africa - they made the Sahara desert, after which 3 opened agriculture and cattle breeding and lived comfortably to this day. Therefore (according to him) the era of the scientific and technical revolution is coming - the scientific and technological revolution and those who do not adapt to it - will die out like mammoths.
So the facts are known. Moreover, they are actively taken into account by various analysts in the formulation of development strategies.
What will happen next. In principle, nothing terrible. Just runaway growth will stop. The equation describing the growth will be of the form N1 = N0 (kq * N0) where q is the death rate due to overpopulation. The study of this equation is left to you for independent work. It will be a beautiful promise :) It is non-linear. At different coefficients, the behavior changes and is quite significant (possible options: steady fall, steady growth, oscillation around the equilibrium point, chaotic mode.) The general graph for different coefficients
The second conclusion - the population explosion ended (remember the work of Darwin on Galapogos finches), the stabilizing selection comes into effect - the era of the unification of humanity begins. All skills and abilities that are not conducive to the survival of a population will be rejected by evolution. The result can be a narrow-eyed Negro who professes Islam and democracy with the help of a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
How should the individual, community, nation in the current conditions. Just think what evolutionary advantages they have and try to fix them in the informational genome of humanity. This will give them and their children an advantage in the battle under the sun.
Shl. Anticipating a possible discussion I leave in Habré only a part of the article interesting for computer modeling. His Specs on the subject merged on blogs.mail.ru/list/max_no/27521653E51D9D68.html where they belong.
On Habré, I propose to review the scientific part, and not the decent price for Russian gas.
zy.zy. Minus leave comments. If you know this and you are not interested in it, this is one thing. Yes, what I really said is a classic of nonlinear modeling and catastrophe theory. I just do not know how much these facts are now known. Habr is my window to civilization.
If I'm somewhere else nakosyachil - say - I will consider.
Moved to the theme blog on request.
The author begins with the fact that he declares a crisis systemic, and then reduces it to an economic one. Not! High fever is not the cause, but the consequence of the disease. The real reasons are deeper and worse.
Consider a model of unlimited population growth (no constraining factors) Then the population size in each subsequent period of time is equal to the number in the previous multiplied by a certain factor N1 = kN0.
This dependence is known in biology under the name of the Ollie curve (with two liters) and it approximates well the size of the human population.
The transition from the finite difference to the ordinary equation gives us the dependence / N = A / (Tt). A = 3.12E + 11 people. As you can see, the formula of unlimited growth has its limit set by the coefficient T. So, the MOST INTERESTING - this formula describes well the growth of the population in the historical range, but then the coefficient T is 2020. You probably heard this number. Now you should understand where it came from.
These facts are known for quite some time. At the dawn of perestroika, an agitator came to our school. Who told that in the history of mankind there were several such crises: 1 - they ate mammoths, 2 - they burned forests in north Africa - they made the Sahara desert, after which 3 opened agriculture and cattle breeding and lived comfortably to this day. Therefore (according to him) the era of the scientific and technical revolution is coming - the scientific and technological revolution and those who do not adapt to it - will die out like mammoths.
So the facts are known. Moreover, they are actively taken into account by various analysts in the formulation of development strategies.
What will happen next. In principle, nothing terrible. Just runaway growth will stop. The equation describing the growth will be of the form N1 = N0 (kq * N0) where q is the death rate due to overpopulation. The study of this equation is left to you for independent work. It will be a beautiful promise :) It is non-linear. At different coefficients, the behavior changes and is quite significant (possible options: steady fall, steady growth, oscillation around the equilibrium point, chaotic mode.) The general graph for different coefficients
The second conclusion - the population explosion ended (remember the work of Darwin on Galapogos finches), the stabilizing selection comes into effect - the era of the unification of humanity begins. All skills and abilities that are not conducive to the survival of a population will be rejected by evolution. The result can be a narrow-eyed Negro who professes Islam and democracy with the help of a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
How should the individual, community, nation in the current conditions. Just think what evolutionary advantages they have and try to fix them in the informational genome of humanity. This will give them and their children an advantage in the battle under the sun.
Shl. Anticipating a possible discussion I leave in Habré only a part of the article interesting for computer modeling. His Specs on the subject merged on blogs.mail.ru/list/max_no/27521653E51D9D68.html where they belong.
On Habré, I propose to review the scientific part, and not the decent price for Russian gas.
zy.zy. Minus leave comments. If you know this and you are not interested in it, this is one thing. Yes, what I really said is a classic of nonlinear modeling and catastrophe theory. I just do not know how much these facts are now known. Habr is my window to civilization.
If I'm somewhere else nakosyachil - say - I will consider.
Moved to the theme blog on request.
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Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/48683/
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