Will Nostradamus, or what can we expect from the crisis
Many for some reason believe that the outbreak of the global crisis is unpleasant, but nothing. He rattles another half year old, and will end. Well, someone will lose their places, well, a hundred companies will go bankrupt, maybe there will be delays in pensions and wages, unemployment will increase, incomes will fall. It is unpleasant, pathetic, insulting, but nothing, and not so worried.
But this complacency is a huge mistake. The crisis has not yet begun. And its consequences will be catastrophic, cruel and comprehensive. The crisis will not end in half a year. In six months he will just begin! What is happening now really differs little from the same Asian crisis of 1997, or the 1998 default. It even seems that what is happening now is much softer than the default. But this is a misconception.
Our mistake is that we consider this crisis as a technical one. Yes, technical crises happen regularly, but these crises occur within the framework of a working economic model. Technical crises occur when, somewhere, some parameters of the economic model go beyond the ordinary values. This can occur for various reasons, and usually these parameters quickly return to normal. Such incidents happen, for example, because of speculations, bankruptcies, sharp fluctuations in prices, prices for raw materials, government folly, etc. It's okay, such fluctuations do not destroy the entire system, and through well-established mechanisms such phenomena can be controlled and overcome.
Another thing is a systemic crisis. It differs from the technical crisis in that it is not caused by violations in the economic model, but by its failure, the development of a resource. This is the situation when the system can no longer exist.
You can give a simple analogy - the human body. Throughout our lives, we often get sick, sometimes seriously, sometimes fatally. But all these diseases occur due to some deviations in some parts of our body, in certain organs and organ systems. Theoretically, any disease can be cured, we just have not learned how to treat some. But the time comes and the person dies anyway. Dies of old age. This process is inevitable and irresistible. Yes, we can prolong old age by patching up the failing systems of the body in time, but anyway a moment comes when it is impossible to do anything, almost everything refuses. This is the inevitable death. These are not local problems of the body, they are systemic disorders.
The same is today's crisis. It is not a disease, it is the last breath of the economic system on its deathbed. Some kind of Paulson or Obama plan may extend the number of these sighs, but death is already inevitable.
So, what is next?
I could tell in detail why this happened, which led to this outcome, but I do not want to go into details. In fact, it does not matter much. If we draw an analogy with the human body, then it does not matter whether a person dying of old age smoked or led a healthy lifestyle. He will die anyway. Yes, some actions by the USA, various events like the Second World War, the collapse of the USSR accelerated the process, but in any case the death of this system would be inevitable.
')
History does not tolerate the subjunctive mood, so there is no point in analyzing “what would have happened if it had not ...”. We came to a crisis, and let's consider it from the position of Occam's Razor, simply by accepting the simplest explanation: “the crisis came because it was inevitable.”
And what does the collapse of the economic system mean? To answer this question, you need to understand what is the economic basis of this system.
The global economic system rests on three pillars:
The dollar - as a global means of payment, and a single measure of value
Market - as a pricing mechanism
Global economic space - as a tool for expanding markets
This is my assessment. Many can argue, say that I simplify too much. Yes, of course, there is also the banking system and the stock market, without which the current economic system is unthinkable, but I consciously simplify everything. This is an article, not a dissertation. Moreover, these three whales, this is what we, the philistines, face regularly. How inside the stock market or the banking system works we may not even suspect.
So back to the three whales. What will happen to them? And nothing. More precisely, they will no longer be. Not in the long run, of course, but in the next five years for sure. Are you already scared? In vain, you will be scared at the end of the article when you learn that a crisis is not only the collapse of the economic system, but also the collapse of political systems, worldview, customary values, although Western, but those we already have become used to. But more about that later.
Why not be a dollar?
To begin with, we will analyze what the dollar is for the global economic system. The fact is that it so happens that each country has its own currency. In order to trade within the same currency, no dollar is needed. But as soon as you begin to import and export, there are risks. For example, you decided to sell 10 tons of fir cones to Europe. In Russia, a kilo of spruce cones costs 40 p. But in Europe there are no rubles, and they will pay for goods in euros. Suppose the euro is worth just 40 rubles, and we hope to earn 400 tr. For our operation. We signed a contract, and determined that the Europeans, after the delivery of the cones, have to pay 10 tonnes of euros.
But while the bumps reached the consumer, the euro fell to 38 p. for now, 10,000 euros have been received into the accounts of the supplier of the cones, for another 2 rubles. As a result, during the operation, the supplier did not receive 400 tr as planned, but for 360 tons. What a shame? Not that word! It seems that they did everything right, held talks, agreed, took into account the share of profits, and it won how it happened. Even at a loss worked.
It was possible to conclude a contract in rubles, but then the buyer assumes the risk, and this does not solve any problems. Trade between countries in such conditions simply can not exist, too high risks.
In order to solve this problem, we need a single measure of value (EMC), which, for historical reasons, took the dollar. Contracts are in dollars, which reduces the risks from fluctuations in local currencies.
But the first thing the crisis will lead to is the collapse of the dollar. Why? In order to explain this, I will make a small digression.
Features of the global monetary system
Well, a lot has been said about the Bretton Woods system. Therefore, I will not go into details, I will tell you briefly. The Bretton Woods system was adopted by the Allied countries in the Second World War in 1944 in the town of Bretton Wood, and its essence was as follows: the dollar is the world currency. The dollar is secured with gold. All other currencies are provided by the dollar.
This system existed until the beginning of the seventies, when in 1971 the States refused to change the dollar to gold, and then the value of the currency was determined on the basis of market mechanisms (before that the exchange rates were fixed), on the principles of free conversion (SLE is an acronym familiar dashing ninetieth each)
Since then, in fact, currencies have become a common commodity, the price of which is determined by the balance of supply and demand. This means that now it is not necessary to provide currency with goods. If before the value of the currency was determined by how much goods you can buy on it, now it has become unnecessary, and the dollar has finally pulled away from commodity supply, having set off on a free journey. Now there are more dollars in the world than goods for which it can be bought. But if earlier the dollar was partially (in America for the most part) provided by the stock market, then after the fall of the stock market, now the dollar is held solely by the demand for it, and by trust in it.
US debt
The second Achilles heel of the dollar is the US national debt. It has already reached more than 10 trillion dollars, and makes up about 85% of the country's GDP.
How is this debt formed, who forms it, and how is it given?
States owe a debt. The fact is that budget expenditures exceed revenues from about 1910, and this difference must be covered all the time. In order to cover the budget deficit, the states print the paper, which is called the Treasury Bonds, and sell. The yield on these securities is small, but it is believed that the risks are also small, the United States always pay its debts. At the same time, these securities are beginning to circulate in the stock market, grow in value, and generate additional profit. But they have one interesting feature. They can not be returned. And that's why.
The main creditors of the United States are the governments of world countries, including Russia. The funds invested in the US economy are enormous, and if a large borrower demands a return of the debt, the US will return the debt, but only the fact of attempting such an operation will collapse the dollar so much that the debt will be returned, but in fact it will not be the money that was given in debt. Thus, US lenders are hostages of this system - there is debt, there are papers, and there is no way to return the money, and you also have to buy these papers, so as not to depreciate the existing debt.
The dollar will inevitably collapse
The above factors will inevitably lead to a collapse of the dollar. It would have collapsed, but the demand for it is fueled by falling oil prices. The high prices of oil in the past few years have accumulated a lot of money, but now they are released, and they are transferred to the dollar, as the best of evils. But this demand will dry up, the crisis will provoke a fall in the dollar, and it will fall as pretty as it is not secured except for demand, if countries in distress ask for a return of debt, or oil prices start to rise, or simply to fart in the wrong place and place at the wrong time. And the bubble will burst, because the bubble can no longer exist. The dollar will inevitably collapse because the state economy collapses, and will collapse further. The stock market no longer provides the dollar, and all that it now holds is still in demand and a weak hope that we will carry it all the same. No one dares to even breathe, so that inadvertently the dollar does not collapse, but it’s impossible not to breathe for a long time (Or maybe because it’s winter now, and God forbid dollar, Russia refuses to sell gas for nothing, and OPEC will stop supplying oil and everyone will freeze ).
And why are we afraid of falling dollar?
Because the dollar is our everything. As mentioned above, the dollar is the EMC, which allows exchanges, markets to work between countries, to keep savings. But the dollar is EMC only because it is relatively stable, but it will cease to be worth it to fall 2-3 times. And that's all. The fall of the dollar paralyzes the stock exchange, will stop world trade. The factories will stop, because components and materials are produced in different countries, and communications will be destroyed. No one will simply know at what price what to sell. The commodity sector will be closed, because no one wants to trade with high risks at a loss. Already concluded contracts will be canceled because the prices recorded in them will have no meaning.
The exchanges simply will not be able to work, because it will be impossible to conclude new contracts, futures will generally lose their meaning, because no one can predict how much a dollar will cost.
The global market will collapse into a huge number of pieces, and only production of those goods that can be easily produced on its own, without snowfields, or all components to buy for the national currency will remain. And such a minimum. Any high-tech products will be impossible to produce. Electronics will disappear from the shelves, cars will disappear from car dealerships. Construction will stop, complex robotized productions will become. There will also be a global energy crisis, since neither oil nor gas nor electricity will go beyond the boundaries of producing countries. Because of this, even those plants that produce simple goods - steel, cement, mixed feeds - will stop.
Also, the collapse of the world market, narrow markets to a minimum. No one anywhere will buy goods unknown at what price. Therefore, the production of even the surviving enterprises will be reduced by several times. If earlier goods manufactured in Japan were bought all over the world, then later, if they buy it only in Japan, the maximum is in Asia. But no one in Europe will buy goods whose value is expressed in an incomprehensible how much worthy yen, and selling it for the euro is also unprofitable, because there is no single reference point, there is no EMC. But a large part of the success and wealth of the global economy lies precisely in huge sales markets, when there are many buyers, profits are also large, and the costs are minimal.
I am talking here about the world, and not specifically about Russia. How good that Russia is a backward raw country, and here's why.
And what about Russia?
No matter what they say in the west, the crisis will affect Russia most of all, but this is not true, or an attempt to present what is desired. Do not flatter yourself, we will also have a lot of problems, falling living standards, unemployment, bankruptcy, but at least we will not freeze, and we will not die of hunger.
Russia is in an extremely advantageous position just because we do not have all these high-tech industries, and we are not so dependent on markets. Due to the fact that the basis of our exports is raw materials, these markets depend on us and not on markets.
In connection with the collapse of the exchanges, the price of oil will not be determined on the basis of the current situation, but on the basis of current need. If the dollar collapses, we can sell oil for anything, gold, cars, robots, food, territories, that is, for what we consider necessary, and we will have to buy it for what we say, otherwise Europe will freeze, otherwise they will have nothing to harvest, otherwise transport will be. The same applies to gas and metal. For a long time only one currency will remain in the world - raw materials! This is something without which the world cannot exist.
Yes, we will have to do without new twenty-megapixel cameras, without cool mobile phones, and quad-core laptops. Yes, it will take a long time to watch TV with a conventional CRT, for those who did not manage to acquire a plasma panel, and drive a Zhiguli if they did not have time to buy a foreign car. But you must agree, we will survive somehow without this, but Europe is not without our gas!
Problems touch us, and especially those whose business is tied to the west. But we have another advantage - a strong government. But more about that
This collapse is not only the economy
For some reason, the crisis is usually considered from an economic point of view, forgetting that the current world system can exist only in a certain political system. A free market is possible only in a liberal democratic society, according to a Western type. But democracy itself is possible only in a prosperous society. Political and economic systems are interconnected.
Therefore, the outcome of the crisis will be not only economic reforms, but also the collapse of political elites, and with them the political system. In the conditions of the most severe crisis, there can be no talk of democracy and liberalism.
And this is another advantage of Russia. Our economic system is much more tied to public administration than the economy of the West. And this means that we will be able to react much faster to the crisis, having managed to artificially keep prices, and ensure the production of vital products. Yes, for some time we will have to switch to the good old planned economy, but you must admit that we have vast experience and every opportunity to switch to it quickly, and in democratic conditions the democratic government will simply not be ready and will not be able to do it quickly. And this is not a joke. If countries such as the United States or France, at a minimum, can feed their citizens, then in countries such as Ukraine or the Baltic states, real hunger is real. These governments will not be able to handle themselves in a crisis, and their patrons will not be up to them.
The bottom line is that at least for a time, for 5-10 years, the world will have to forget about democracy, and if someone tries to keep it, it will be a collapse for this country. And Russia will be ready for these conditions, because we don’t have democracy at all.
Will democracy be restored after the crisis? There definitely will never be any democracy in Russia, provided that Russia will remain an independent country (and I have no doubt about it). Will democracy return to other countries? Most likely there will be such an attempt, but in the absence of financial elites, in conditions of extremely low living standards, these attempts will either not be realized or will lead to the final destruction of the state.
And another result of the crisis will be the rejection of the ideology of consumption. We will learn to live without those trinkets that we really do not need. We will finally understand that the phone should ring and take a photo camera. We will understand that we can live without the Internet in buses, and read paper books instead of electronic ones. We understand that two megapixels is enough for a home photo album, and engine power of 60 hp. quite enough for confident movement in the city.
And most importantly, we understand the price of morality and soul. We will understand that all of us need to cooperate, be honest, help each other, and that our interests are not only our interests, but ours and others too.And in order to live further, we need to abandon double standards, from lies, hatred, betrayal. Only in this is our salvation.
Total
What will we see in the end? Let's imagine that we were transported forward 10 years and looked back. First, we will see several zonal currencies in place of one world currency, between which rigid exchange rates will be established, regulated by some global organization. We will see a significant limitation of the market, and all sorts of exchanges. We will see tighter government regulation of the economy, as well as tighter global regulation.
But the main thing is the structure of production, which will change significantly. On the one hand, the manufacturability of products will decrease. This will be associated with a much lower purchasing power of the population, and smaller markets. But we will also see that high technologies have moved to where they are needed, namely, in science, space, mining, energy.
The standard of living equals, there will not be too rich, but also too poor. But it will not happen because someone will artificially select and divide. No, just change the philosophy of man. We simply will not need locks in Nice and huge yachts. We will not need huge hamers to ride in the city. Simply put, ponto will be less. It is difficult for us to imagine this now, because we are so accustomed to striving and desiring all these trinkets that we don’t understand how to live it differently. But this is only Western philosophy, of which we are a part. We cannot understand how this millionaire can live in a modest house and walk in ordinary shirts and not in an exclusive from Gucci.
The democratic system will turn into what North Korea’s communism is now, that is, something so exotic and curious. Democracy will be synonymous with chaos. The new system, perhaps, will resemble the monarchy in some way, but the continuity of power will not be based on dynasties, but on the basis of some other mechanisms, perhaps in some way borrowed from the democratic societies of the past, but significantly modified.
But there is another scenario. And here I certainly would not want to be right. The fact is that all of the above is understood not only by me. You should not think that I am the only one so clever who invented all this, using his rich imagination. No, I spoke above about what I read in open sources and just did a little analysis. But I am sure that similar conclusions were made by those who have this knife in the throat development of the world scenario. And these forces may try to prevent such a development of events. And this can be done only in one way, and this method has a very terrible name “World War”. But let's not develop this sad topic, but I will finish my article on an optimistic note.
Outcome for Russia
One thing is clear that as a result of such a scenario, 2-3 world geopolitical centers are formed in the world, independent both economically and politically, and Russia will become like glue, as a connecting and controlling mechanism. The power of Russia will not be similar to the power of the United States now. Russia will not have such an economic or military advantage as the States now have, but the power of Russia will be on a different plane, rather in a spiritual one. This is the same difference between a prison supervisor and a school teacher. The taskmaster cannot be disobeyed, but you hate him and take the first opportunity to break his order. But you can disobey the teacher, you will get a maximum of two, but the obedience of the class is held not on fear but on respect, and the teacher often has the power not less than the prison guard.The role of Russia in the new world will be akin to the role of a teacher, and its influence is based on trust and mutual benefit, and not on fear and dummy governments.
But before this happy far away, we will have to go through very difficult times. But it is inevitable. We live in the end of epochs, and never has another epoch replaced another without misfortunes and upheavals. But in the end, of all the global cataclysms, we will come out better, kinder and stronger.
Sources
www.avanturist.org/forum/index.php/topic , 206.0.html
www.irkutsk.ru/ivm/pr
russtv.ru/ekonomika/hazin
rutube.ru/tracks/497088.html?v=66bb08ead2e0c2fb2fa31317997959d7
rutube.ru tracks / 926161.html? v = 894acb0c0b03038057c5a2790ce909bf
rutube.ru/tracks/1367292.html?v=79d1a6e2abb73bede24f71d02ff978e6 rutube.ru/tracks/1168060.html ? you need your help to save it for your workman if you want to
stay for you
But this complacency is a huge mistake. The crisis has not yet begun. And its consequences will be catastrophic, cruel and comprehensive. The crisis will not end in half a year. In six months he will just begin! What is happening now really differs little from the same Asian crisis of 1997, or the 1998 default. It even seems that what is happening now is much softer than the default. But this is a misconception.
Our mistake is that we consider this crisis as a technical one. Yes, technical crises happen regularly, but these crises occur within the framework of a working economic model. Technical crises occur when, somewhere, some parameters of the economic model go beyond the ordinary values. This can occur for various reasons, and usually these parameters quickly return to normal. Such incidents happen, for example, because of speculations, bankruptcies, sharp fluctuations in prices, prices for raw materials, government folly, etc. It's okay, such fluctuations do not destroy the entire system, and through well-established mechanisms such phenomena can be controlled and overcome.
Another thing is a systemic crisis. It differs from the technical crisis in that it is not caused by violations in the economic model, but by its failure, the development of a resource. This is the situation when the system can no longer exist.
You can give a simple analogy - the human body. Throughout our lives, we often get sick, sometimes seriously, sometimes fatally. But all these diseases occur due to some deviations in some parts of our body, in certain organs and organ systems. Theoretically, any disease can be cured, we just have not learned how to treat some. But the time comes and the person dies anyway. Dies of old age. This process is inevitable and irresistible. Yes, we can prolong old age by patching up the failing systems of the body in time, but anyway a moment comes when it is impossible to do anything, almost everything refuses. This is the inevitable death. These are not local problems of the body, they are systemic disorders.
The same is today's crisis. It is not a disease, it is the last breath of the economic system on its deathbed. Some kind of Paulson or Obama plan may extend the number of these sighs, but death is already inevitable.
So, what is next?
I could tell in detail why this happened, which led to this outcome, but I do not want to go into details. In fact, it does not matter much. If we draw an analogy with the human body, then it does not matter whether a person dying of old age smoked or led a healthy lifestyle. He will die anyway. Yes, some actions by the USA, various events like the Second World War, the collapse of the USSR accelerated the process, but in any case the death of this system would be inevitable.
')
History does not tolerate the subjunctive mood, so there is no point in analyzing “what would have happened if it had not ...”. We came to a crisis, and let's consider it from the position of Occam's Razor, simply by accepting the simplest explanation: “the crisis came because it was inevitable.”
And what does the collapse of the economic system mean? To answer this question, you need to understand what is the economic basis of this system.
The global economic system rests on three pillars:
The dollar - as a global means of payment, and a single measure of value
Market - as a pricing mechanism
Global economic space - as a tool for expanding markets
This is my assessment. Many can argue, say that I simplify too much. Yes, of course, there is also the banking system and the stock market, without which the current economic system is unthinkable, but I consciously simplify everything. This is an article, not a dissertation. Moreover, these three whales, this is what we, the philistines, face regularly. How inside the stock market or the banking system works we may not even suspect.
So back to the three whales. What will happen to them? And nothing. More precisely, they will no longer be. Not in the long run, of course, but in the next five years for sure. Are you already scared? In vain, you will be scared at the end of the article when you learn that a crisis is not only the collapse of the economic system, but also the collapse of political systems, worldview, customary values, although Western, but those we already have become used to. But more about that later.
Why not be a dollar?
To begin with, we will analyze what the dollar is for the global economic system. The fact is that it so happens that each country has its own currency. In order to trade within the same currency, no dollar is needed. But as soon as you begin to import and export, there are risks. For example, you decided to sell 10 tons of fir cones to Europe. In Russia, a kilo of spruce cones costs 40 p. But in Europe there are no rubles, and they will pay for goods in euros. Suppose the euro is worth just 40 rubles, and we hope to earn 400 tr. For our operation. We signed a contract, and determined that the Europeans, after the delivery of the cones, have to pay 10 tonnes of euros.
But while the bumps reached the consumer, the euro fell to 38 p. for now, 10,000 euros have been received into the accounts of the supplier of the cones, for another 2 rubles. As a result, during the operation, the supplier did not receive 400 tr as planned, but for 360 tons. What a shame? Not that word! It seems that they did everything right, held talks, agreed, took into account the share of profits, and it won how it happened. Even at a loss worked.
It was possible to conclude a contract in rubles, but then the buyer assumes the risk, and this does not solve any problems. Trade between countries in such conditions simply can not exist, too high risks.
In order to solve this problem, we need a single measure of value (EMC), which, for historical reasons, took the dollar. Contracts are in dollars, which reduces the risks from fluctuations in local currencies.
But the first thing the crisis will lead to is the collapse of the dollar. Why? In order to explain this, I will make a small digression.
Features of the global monetary system
Well, a lot has been said about the Bretton Woods system. Therefore, I will not go into details, I will tell you briefly. The Bretton Woods system was adopted by the Allied countries in the Second World War in 1944 in the town of Bretton Wood, and its essence was as follows: the dollar is the world currency. The dollar is secured with gold. All other currencies are provided by the dollar.
This system existed until the beginning of the seventies, when in 1971 the States refused to change the dollar to gold, and then the value of the currency was determined on the basis of market mechanisms (before that the exchange rates were fixed), on the principles of free conversion (SLE is an acronym familiar dashing ninetieth each)
Since then, in fact, currencies have become a common commodity, the price of which is determined by the balance of supply and demand. This means that now it is not necessary to provide currency with goods. If before the value of the currency was determined by how much goods you can buy on it, now it has become unnecessary, and the dollar has finally pulled away from commodity supply, having set off on a free journey. Now there are more dollars in the world than goods for which it can be bought. But if earlier the dollar was partially (in America for the most part) provided by the stock market, then after the fall of the stock market, now the dollar is held solely by the demand for it, and by trust in it.
US debt
The second Achilles heel of the dollar is the US national debt. It has already reached more than 10 trillion dollars, and makes up about 85% of the country's GDP.
How is this debt formed, who forms it, and how is it given?
States owe a debt. The fact is that budget expenditures exceed revenues from about 1910, and this difference must be covered all the time. In order to cover the budget deficit, the states print the paper, which is called the Treasury Bonds, and sell. The yield on these securities is small, but it is believed that the risks are also small, the United States always pay its debts. At the same time, these securities are beginning to circulate in the stock market, grow in value, and generate additional profit. But they have one interesting feature. They can not be returned. And that's why.
The main creditors of the United States are the governments of world countries, including Russia. The funds invested in the US economy are enormous, and if a large borrower demands a return of the debt, the US will return the debt, but only the fact of attempting such an operation will collapse the dollar so much that the debt will be returned, but in fact it will not be the money that was given in debt. Thus, US lenders are hostages of this system - there is debt, there are papers, and there is no way to return the money, and you also have to buy these papers, so as not to depreciate the existing debt.
The dollar will inevitably collapse
The above factors will inevitably lead to a collapse of the dollar. It would have collapsed, but the demand for it is fueled by falling oil prices. The high prices of oil in the past few years have accumulated a lot of money, but now they are released, and they are transferred to the dollar, as the best of evils. But this demand will dry up, the crisis will provoke a fall in the dollar, and it will fall as pretty as it is not secured except for demand, if countries in distress ask for a return of debt, or oil prices start to rise, or simply to fart in the wrong place and place at the wrong time. And the bubble will burst, because the bubble can no longer exist. The dollar will inevitably collapse because the state economy collapses, and will collapse further. The stock market no longer provides the dollar, and all that it now holds is still in demand and a weak hope that we will carry it all the same. No one dares to even breathe, so that inadvertently the dollar does not collapse, but it’s impossible not to breathe for a long time (Or maybe because it’s winter now, and God forbid dollar, Russia refuses to sell gas for nothing, and OPEC will stop supplying oil and everyone will freeze ).
And why are we afraid of falling dollar?
Because the dollar is our everything. As mentioned above, the dollar is the EMC, which allows exchanges, markets to work between countries, to keep savings. But the dollar is EMC only because it is relatively stable, but it will cease to be worth it to fall 2-3 times. And that's all. The fall of the dollar paralyzes the stock exchange, will stop world trade. The factories will stop, because components and materials are produced in different countries, and communications will be destroyed. No one will simply know at what price what to sell. The commodity sector will be closed, because no one wants to trade with high risks at a loss. Already concluded contracts will be canceled because the prices recorded in them will have no meaning.
The exchanges simply will not be able to work, because it will be impossible to conclude new contracts, futures will generally lose their meaning, because no one can predict how much a dollar will cost.
The global market will collapse into a huge number of pieces, and only production of those goods that can be easily produced on its own, without snowfields, or all components to buy for the national currency will remain. And such a minimum. Any high-tech products will be impossible to produce. Electronics will disappear from the shelves, cars will disappear from car dealerships. Construction will stop, complex robotized productions will become. There will also be a global energy crisis, since neither oil nor gas nor electricity will go beyond the boundaries of producing countries. Because of this, even those plants that produce simple goods - steel, cement, mixed feeds - will stop.
Also, the collapse of the world market, narrow markets to a minimum. No one anywhere will buy goods unknown at what price. Therefore, the production of even the surviving enterprises will be reduced by several times. If earlier goods manufactured in Japan were bought all over the world, then later, if they buy it only in Japan, the maximum is in Asia. But no one in Europe will buy goods whose value is expressed in an incomprehensible how much worthy yen, and selling it for the euro is also unprofitable, because there is no single reference point, there is no EMC. But a large part of the success and wealth of the global economy lies precisely in huge sales markets, when there are many buyers, profits are also large, and the costs are minimal.
I am talking here about the world, and not specifically about Russia. How good that Russia is a backward raw country, and here's why.
And what about Russia?
No matter what they say in the west, the crisis will affect Russia most of all, but this is not true, or an attempt to present what is desired. Do not flatter yourself, we will also have a lot of problems, falling living standards, unemployment, bankruptcy, but at least we will not freeze, and we will not die of hunger.
Russia is in an extremely advantageous position just because we do not have all these high-tech industries, and we are not so dependent on markets. Due to the fact that the basis of our exports is raw materials, these markets depend on us and not on markets.
In connection with the collapse of the exchanges, the price of oil will not be determined on the basis of the current situation, but on the basis of current need. If the dollar collapses, we can sell oil for anything, gold, cars, robots, food, territories, that is, for what we consider necessary, and we will have to buy it for what we say, otherwise Europe will freeze, otherwise they will have nothing to harvest, otherwise transport will be. The same applies to gas and metal. For a long time only one currency will remain in the world - raw materials! This is something without which the world cannot exist.
Yes, we will have to do without new twenty-megapixel cameras, without cool mobile phones, and quad-core laptops. Yes, it will take a long time to watch TV with a conventional CRT, for those who did not manage to acquire a plasma panel, and drive a Zhiguli if they did not have time to buy a foreign car. But you must agree, we will survive somehow without this, but Europe is not without our gas!
Problems touch us, and especially those whose business is tied to the west. But we have another advantage - a strong government. But more about that
This collapse is not only the economy
For some reason, the crisis is usually considered from an economic point of view, forgetting that the current world system can exist only in a certain political system. A free market is possible only in a liberal democratic society, according to a Western type. But democracy itself is possible only in a prosperous society. Political and economic systems are interconnected.
Therefore, the outcome of the crisis will be not only economic reforms, but also the collapse of political elites, and with them the political system. In the conditions of the most severe crisis, there can be no talk of democracy and liberalism.
And this is another advantage of Russia. Our economic system is much more tied to public administration than the economy of the West. And this means that we will be able to react much faster to the crisis, having managed to artificially keep prices, and ensure the production of vital products. Yes, for some time we will have to switch to the good old planned economy, but you must admit that we have vast experience and every opportunity to switch to it quickly, and in democratic conditions the democratic government will simply not be ready and will not be able to do it quickly. And this is not a joke. If countries such as the United States or France, at a minimum, can feed their citizens, then in countries such as Ukraine or the Baltic states, real hunger is real. These governments will not be able to handle themselves in a crisis, and their patrons will not be up to them.
The bottom line is that at least for a time, for 5-10 years, the world will have to forget about democracy, and if someone tries to keep it, it will be a collapse for this country. And Russia will be ready for these conditions, because we don’t have democracy at all.
Will democracy be restored after the crisis? There definitely will never be any democracy in Russia, provided that Russia will remain an independent country (and I have no doubt about it). Will democracy return to other countries? Most likely there will be such an attempt, but in the absence of financial elites, in conditions of extremely low living standards, these attempts will either not be realized or will lead to the final destruction of the state.
And another result of the crisis will be the rejection of the ideology of consumption. We will learn to live without those trinkets that we really do not need. We will finally understand that the phone should ring and take a photo camera. We will understand that we can live without the Internet in buses, and read paper books instead of electronic ones. We understand that two megapixels is enough for a home photo album, and engine power of 60 hp. quite enough for confident movement in the city.
And most importantly, we understand the price of morality and soul. We will understand that all of us need to cooperate, be honest, help each other, and that our interests are not only our interests, but ours and others too.And in order to live further, we need to abandon double standards, from lies, hatred, betrayal. Only in this is our salvation.
Total
What will we see in the end? Let's imagine that we were transported forward 10 years and looked back. First, we will see several zonal currencies in place of one world currency, between which rigid exchange rates will be established, regulated by some global organization. We will see a significant limitation of the market, and all sorts of exchanges. We will see tighter government regulation of the economy, as well as tighter global regulation.
But the main thing is the structure of production, which will change significantly. On the one hand, the manufacturability of products will decrease. This will be associated with a much lower purchasing power of the population, and smaller markets. But we will also see that high technologies have moved to where they are needed, namely, in science, space, mining, energy.
The standard of living equals, there will not be too rich, but also too poor. But it will not happen because someone will artificially select and divide. No, just change the philosophy of man. We simply will not need locks in Nice and huge yachts. We will not need huge hamers to ride in the city. Simply put, ponto will be less. It is difficult for us to imagine this now, because we are so accustomed to striving and desiring all these trinkets that we don’t understand how to live it differently. But this is only Western philosophy, of which we are a part. We cannot understand how this millionaire can live in a modest house and walk in ordinary shirts and not in an exclusive from Gucci.
The democratic system will turn into what North Korea’s communism is now, that is, something so exotic and curious. Democracy will be synonymous with chaos. The new system, perhaps, will resemble the monarchy in some way, but the continuity of power will not be based on dynasties, but on the basis of some other mechanisms, perhaps in some way borrowed from the democratic societies of the past, but significantly modified.
But there is another scenario. And here I certainly would not want to be right. The fact is that all of the above is understood not only by me. You should not think that I am the only one so clever who invented all this, using his rich imagination. No, I spoke above about what I read in open sources and just did a little analysis. But I am sure that similar conclusions were made by those who have this knife in the throat development of the world scenario. And these forces may try to prevent such a development of events. And this can be done only in one way, and this method has a very terrible name “World War”. But let's not develop this sad topic, but I will finish my article on an optimistic note.
Outcome for Russia
One thing is clear that as a result of such a scenario, 2-3 world geopolitical centers are formed in the world, independent both economically and politically, and Russia will become like glue, as a connecting and controlling mechanism. The power of Russia will not be similar to the power of the United States now. Russia will not have such an economic or military advantage as the States now have, but the power of Russia will be on a different plane, rather in a spiritual one. This is the same difference between a prison supervisor and a school teacher. The taskmaster cannot be disobeyed, but you hate him and take the first opportunity to break his order. But you can disobey the teacher, you will get a maximum of two, but the obedience of the class is held not on fear but on respect, and the teacher often has the power not less than the prison guard.The role of Russia in the new world will be akin to the role of a teacher, and its influence is based on trust and mutual benefit, and not on fear and dummy governments.
But before this happy far away, we will have to go through very difficult times. But it is inevitable. We live in the end of epochs, and never has another epoch replaced another without misfortunes and upheavals. But in the end, of all the global cataclysms, we will come out better, kinder and stronger.
Sources
www.avanturist.org/forum/index.php/topic , 206.0.html
www.irkutsk.ru/ivm/pr
russtv.ru/ekonomika/hazin
rutube.ru/tracks/497088.html?v=66bb08ead2e0c2fb2fa31317997959d7
rutube.ru tracks / 926161.html? v = 894acb0c0b03038057c5a2790ce909bf
rutube.ru/tracks/1367292.html?v=79d1a6e2abb73bede24f71d02ff978e6 rutube.ru/tracks/1168060.html ? you need your help to save it for your workman if you want to
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Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/48541/
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