Caution: statistical misinformation
Have you ever wondered how big the so-called statistical error can be? Especially - on a global scale. Especially - at, apparently, solid and repeatedly quoted agencies or online services. I will try to show you how sad everything is. Naturally, using the example of browser usage statistics (who knows me will understand why). I hope that after reading this mini-study, you will be more critical of the next loud statements of various publications about the market share of a particular program.
So, let's begin. For example - from a fairly well-known and respected resource W3schools.com . According to this source, over the past year, the share of Opera browser in the world increased by one percent and amounted to 2.4%.
At first glance - excellent performance, a tangible increase in the user base. However, the W3schools.com data never convinced me, and here's why.
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In fact, the statistics at W3schools.com are also very strong, to put it mildly, inaccurate, as on all other similar “import” resources, which threaten global statistics. The fact is that the log of visits to the site W3schools.com is used as the source data. At the same time, according to Alexa.com , the audience of visitors to this resource by country looks like this:
Neither Russia, nor one of the countries of the former USSR is even included in the TOP 25 of the visitors' list of W3schools.com. Meanwhile, it is we who make up the lion’s share of Opera browser users. Surprise, isn't it?
However, the statistics of W3schools.com, it can be said, is also “profitably” different from, for example, the well-known service HitsLink , which stubbornly refuses to give Opera more than 0.71 percent.
Everything is also very simple: HitsLink mostly tracks only American resources (i.e., it actually equates America’s figures to global ones), and at W3schools.com there is at least Germany, India — countries in which Opera has a certain weight.
One more proof of the erroneousness of the HitsLink data can be obtained from the browser developers themselves. For example, Google recently announced that the number of Chrome browser users has exceeded 10 million . At the same time, Opera Software, in the third quarter of last year, announced the figure of 30 million users of the desktop version, not counting 21 million Opera Mini users (which, by the way, also often falls into statistics on desktop browsers - the kernel running on a remote server is the same as in the usual "desktop" version of the browser). But what do the HitsLink numbers say? As you can see, Chrome - 1.04%, Opera - 0.71%. These are the incidents.
Even more interesting is the data of the GetClicky service, which offers such a “global” balance of power, in which the Opera browser yields even to certain mobile browsers (being at the same time the recognized leader of mobile web surfing):
Of course, one could simply ignore such statistical “missteps” and quietly use their favorite browser peacefully if it were not for one “but”: the media often use their statistical calculations in their news or analytical articles, while operating with loud in terms of global market share, etc. etc. As a result, the average person has the impression that Opera is an eternal “loser”, not worthy of special attention. What is the result? Fewer people decide to try this really good browser, the user base is growing much slower, and web developers continue to ignore Opera when creating their "masterpieces", thereby creating problems for me and tens of millions of other Opera users.
Actually, this is why you are reading this article now;) If, nevertheless, someone wants to at least roughly determine the real balance of power in the browser market, I can advise Wikipedia - here at least tried to approach the issue from different directions, so that calculate the percentage is not difficult. But, I repeat, this is not the ultimate truth, but only a very approximate picture of the correlation of forces.
So, let's begin. For example - from a fairly well-known and respected resource W3schools.com . According to this source, over the past year, the share of Opera browser in the world increased by one percent and amounted to 2.4%.
At first glance - excellent performance, a tangible increase in the user base. However, the W3schools.com data never convinced me, and here's why.
')
In fact, the statistics at W3schools.com are also very strong, to put it mildly, inaccurate, as on all other similar “import” resources, which threaten global statistics. The fact is that the log of visits to the site W3schools.com is used as the source data. At the same time, according to Alexa.com , the audience of visitors to this resource by country looks like this:
Neither Russia, nor one of the countries of the former USSR is even included in the TOP 25 of the visitors' list of W3schools.com. Meanwhile, it is we who make up the lion’s share of Opera browser users. Surprise, isn't it?
However, the statistics of W3schools.com, it can be said, is also “profitably” different from, for example, the well-known service HitsLink , which stubbornly refuses to give Opera more than 0.71 percent.
Everything is also very simple: HitsLink mostly tracks only American resources (i.e., it actually equates America’s figures to global ones), and at W3schools.com there is at least Germany, India — countries in which Opera has a certain weight.
One more proof of the erroneousness of the HitsLink data can be obtained from the browser developers themselves. For example, Google recently announced that the number of Chrome browser users has exceeded 10 million . At the same time, Opera Software, in the third quarter of last year, announced the figure of 30 million users of the desktop version, not counting 21 million Opera Mini users (which, by the way, also often falls into statistics on desktop browsers - the kernel running on a remote server is the same as in the usual "desktop" version of the browser). But what do the HitsLink numbers say? As you can see, Chrome - 1.04%, Opera - 0.71%. These are the incidents.
Even more interesting is the data of the GetClicky service, which offers such a “global” balance of power, in which the Opera browser yields even to certain mobile browsers (being at the same time the recognized leader of mobile web surfing):
Of course, one could simply ignore such statistical “missteps” and quietly use their favorite browser peacefully if it were not for one “but”: the media often use their statistical calculations in their news or analytical articles, while operating with loud in terms of global market share, etc. etc. As a result, the average person has the impression that Opera is an eternal “loser”, not worthy of special attention. What is the result? Fewer people decide to try this really good browser, the user base is growing much slower, and web developers continue to ignore Opera when creating their "masterpieces", thereby creating problems for me and tens of millions of other Opera users.
Actually, this is why you are reading this article now;) If, nevertheless, someone wants to at least roughly determine the real balance of power in the browser market, I can advise Wikipedia - here at least tried to approach the issue from different directions, so that calculate the percentage is not difficult. But, I repeat, this is not the ultimate truth, but only a very approximate picture of the correlation of forces.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/48512/
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