World after fifty years: the version of the magazine New Scientist
New Scientist magazine has published small mini-forecasts from more than 70 world-renowned experts in various fields of knowledge: from genetics and sex to artificial intelligence and information technology . Let's see what awaits us in the near future.
We say “in the near future”, because most readers of “Habr” will certainly be able to check the accuracy of these forecasts. Still, the average life expectancy inexorably approaches one hundred years, and it can be easily increased by 40% . That is, in 2056 the first generation of centenarians will appear (“generation C”), which will live a normal active life, work, play and enjoy sex. Almost all scientists who study the problems of aging speak of “generation C” as an inevitable fact.
Compared to the great advances in medicine, advances in information technology seem to be insignificant. Artificial intelligence will probably learn to recognize the classes of objects - and so what? Even a two-year-old child can do this.
It is possible that in the minds of the mass consumer in 50 years the role of AI will be played by ordinary computers , the computing power of which will noticeably increase by that time. Miniature and inconspicuous computers will be closely integrated into people's daily lives, and after death a person will be able to leave for descendants a digital monument with private content, in which almost his entire life is documented (personal blog archive, email archive, search history, IM pager negotiations) for all the years of life, photos, videos, personal documents, etc.).
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Google Technical Director Peter Norvig believes that we are now in the middle of a new information age, marked by increased access to information. The previous information age began in 1456 with the invention of the printing press and now seems to be over. After 550 years, people decided, finally, the problem of transferring knowledge to next generations - and moved to a new stage of their development.
The new information age began about twelve years ago with the advent of search engines on the Internet. However, they are still very imperfect. As Igor Ashmanov says (he, unfortunately, is not in the list of New Scientist experts, but we know his opinion), modern Internet search has a DOS-like interface (requiring input of text commands), and we still have to move on to something Windows -like, that is, more modern and convenient.
Peter Norvig agrees in absentia with his Russian counterpart. He says that after 50 years, people will not enter text into the search box, but will be easy to talk to their personal digital secretary connected to the Internet. Actually, about the same predictions gave in his books more than ten years ago, another well-known futurologist Bill Gates.
Perhaps in the next half century, the most noticeable changes will take place not at all in the outside world, but in our own consciousness. Perhaps, in full accordance with the books of Philip Dick, we will have a technology for implanting fake memories .
Be that as it may, in 2056 the conceptual apparatus of people will be completely different . If now our worldview is based on such laws as natural selection and kinetic energy, then in the future the basis of the scientific picture of the world will be, for example, the theory of cellular automata or the principle of computational equivalence. Children will learn these concepts earlier than basic algebra.
Perhaps a real breakthrough in computing in 50 years will be associated with the manufacture of a universal quantum computer. Already, many scientists believe that the phenomena of the quantum world are a manifestation of the effect of information transfer between parallel universes . Indeed, how else can one explain quantum teleportation and the paradox of Schrödinger's cat ? A quantum computer, therefore, can open up completely new layers of knowledge.
We say “in the near future”, because most readers of “Habr” will certainly be able to check the accuracy of these forecasts. Still, the average life expectancy inexorably approaches one hundred years, and it can be easily increased by 40% . That is, in 2056 the first generation of centenarians will appear (“generation C”), which will live a normal active life, work, play and enjoy sex. Almost all scientists who study the problems of aging speak of “generation C” as an inevitable fact.
Compared to the great advances in medicine, advances in information technology seem to be insignificant. Artificial intelligence will probably learn to recognize the classes of objects - and so what? Even a two-year-old child can do this.
It is possible that in the minds of the mass consumer in 50 years the role of AI will be played by ordinary computers , the computing power of which will noticeably increase by that time. Miniature and inconspicuous computers will be closely integrated into people's daily lives, and after death a person will be able to leave for descendants a digital monument with private content, in which almost his entire life is documented (personal blog archive, email archive, search history, IM pager negotiations) for all the years of life, photos, videos, personal documents, etc.).
')
Google Technical Director Peter Norvig believes that we are now in the middle of a new information age, marked by increased access to information. The previous information age began in 1456 with the invention of the printing press and now seems to be over. After 550 years, people decided, finally, the problem of transferring knowledge to next generations - and moved to a new stage of their development.
The new information age began about twelve years ago with the advent of search engines on the Internet. However, they are still very imperfect. As Igor Ashmanov says (he, unfortunately, is not in the list of New Scientist experts, but we know his opinion), modern Internet search has a DOS-like interface (requiring input of text commands), and we still have to move on to something Windows -like, that is, more modern and convenient.
Peter Norvig agrees in absentia with his Russian counterpart. He says that after 50 years, people will not enter text into the search box, but will be easy to talk to their personal digital secretary connected to the Internet. Actually, about the same predictions gave in his books more than ten years ago, another well-known futurologist Bill Gates.
Perhaps in the next half century, the most noticeable changes will take place not at all in the outside world, but in our own consciousness. Perhaps, in full accordance with the books of Philip Dick, we will have a technology for implanting fake memories .
Be that as it may, in 2056 the conceptual apparatus of people will be completely different . If now our worldview is based on such laws as natural selection and kinetic energy, then in the future the basis of the scientific picture of the world will be, for example, the theory of cellular automata or the principle of computational equivalence. Children will learn these concepts earlier than basic algebra.
Perhaps a real breakthrough in computing in 50 years will be associated with the manufacture of a universal quantum computer. Already, many scientists believe that the phenomena of the quantum world are a manifestation of the effect of information transfer between parallel universes . Indeed, how else can one explain quantum teleportation and the paradox of Schrödinger's cat ? A quantum computer, therefore, can open up completely new layers of knowledge.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/4697/
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