The state and prospects of electronic business in Russia and Ukraine.
According to American studies, e-commerce in consumer goods is beneficial, provided that at least 12% -15% of the country's population are users of the Network. Russia overstepped this threshold at the end of 2004 - beginning of 2005, which did not slow down to manifest itself in the rapid growth of e-commerce in Russia. In two years, it has increased 4.8 times: from $ 937 million in 2003 to $ 4.474 billion in 2005.
Although these figures are even smaller than the volumes of individual Internet companies in the USA - Amazon.com's sales for 2005 amounted to $ 8.12 billion, and the amount of successful transactions at eBay online auction was $ 44.3 billion, and only 0.01% of the world’s electronic turnover, estimated at $ 38-44 trillion, such growth rates inspire optimism and hope for the same growth in the future.
There are no data on Ukraine in open sources (I am afraid that in closed ones too), but considering that Ukraine lags behind Russia in terms of Internet development by 2-3 years, the number of Uanet users is 4-5 times less, and the volume of Ukraine’s economy less by an order of magnitude, this value can be estimated at $ 50-100 million.
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Let's try to calculate this figure from the other side. If in Russia, the online advertising market in 2005 was, according to various estimates, $ 60-100 million, which is 2-3% of e-commerce, then, with a similar ratio of 2.5 Ukrainian advertising million, they give the same $ 80-125 million of electronic revenue.
But due to the expected overcoming in 2007 of 12% of the line of Internet users from the population in Ukraine, this area expects the same as in Russia, if not more rapid growth.
At the same time, universal globalization in the world creates prerequisites for the success of any local startup proposing an original and new concept, as well as substantial competition for local projects trying to copy thoughtlessly successful foreign firms from both prototypes and domestic and foreign followers.
American journalist Thomas Friedman \ Thomas L. Friedman, in the book "Flat World: A Brief History of the Twenty First Century" \ The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century writes:
“the uniqueness of the current situation is that individuals and small groups of people for the first time in the history of mankind had the opportunity to cooperate and compete on the world market as full-fledged and full-fledged producers and consumers of goods and services. At first, globalization was a lot of states, later - corporations, and Nowadays, individuals and mini-collectives are increasingly involved in it. These competing partners can enter into economic competition in all countries and on all continents, creating corporations or modifying the work of existing ones. Their chances of success are determined not by citizenship and residence, but by education, ability, perseverance, ingenuity and access to the global communication system. This situation radically changes the conditions of activity of companies that have already emerged, which have to either constantly restructure in a new competitive environment, or to give up their positions and go out of business. The Internet and other communication technologies have made such cooperation possible in the implementation of x various works requested by modern civilization, which is carried out almost instantaneously across the planet. The whole planet becomes a single production field in which uniform working rules apply. "
Ukrainian journalist Mikhail Dudnik at the end of 2003 wrote:
“The possibilities and advantages of e-commerce are obvious and do not need additional advertising. Regularly conducted research demonstrates the same picture - effective demand and lack of confidence in electronic stores. Most Ukrainian e-shops are reminiscent of Soviet-era shops - dull rooms, a small selection, boorish service. This is primarily evidence of the absence of competition in the market - there are buyers who are comfortable making orders via the Internet, and at the same time there are a very small number of sellers who really can buy something. ”
Since then, the picture in Uaneta, if improved, is not too much. The Internet is mainly used for navigating the website of the online store and placing an order. Payment banking systems operating through a standard browser are still rather cumbersome and sin with complex authentication systems. The preferred form of payment in Ukraine for the overwhelming majority of the population is cash payment.
At the same time, it is impossible not to note the positive changes that have taken place in the Russian-speaking part of the network in recent years, mainly due to the efforts of major players - search engines and portals who have finally overcome the level of self-repayment and are steadily increasing their income. Their efforts have achieved significant success in developing search prices for trading firms and creating electronic supermarkets: finding products in electronic stores and comparing prices has become much easier and more convenient. The quantity and quality of online stores has significantly increased, but really new and original ones, with innovative ideas, solutions and services among them, are still very few.
However, such types of Internet businesses as Internet auctions, electronic bulletin boards and other services of the C2C segment in the Russian-speaking part of the network, it seems, remained at the level of services of the past millennium, never heard of Web 2.0, social networks, Ajax and so on. thousands and thousands of dull monotonous standard resources, and almost no attempt to create something truly new and original.
On the other hand, from Russian-speaking startups that can be attributed to Web 2.0, most are clones of Western prototypes, almost all do not have a coherent business model, working on the principle of “gaining more users, and then we will see,” the scope of their activities for some reason do not overlap with real business and trade, but are boiled in their own juice on the topics of blogs, services, gadgets, search engines, optimizers, public relations and advertising, very far from the needs and interests of the majority of users. This is all so reminiscent of the recent "growth of the means of production of the means of production of the means of production ..."
Therefore, those wishing to succeed in modern Internet business need to create services that connect the world of real business and virtual communities into a single whole, competitive and effective, not with the help of “Web-gradient” gradients, fills and reflections, Ajax-a and the “beta” lettering, but based on absolutely fresh non-traditional mechanisms of interaction between the real and the virtual world at the level of inventions and discoveries. Only on this path can new Gates and Brins appear, radically changing the picture of the virtual world.
Let me imagine a little imagination and present possible services of a new generation that can provide a qualitative leap not only in virtual, but also in real life:
Outworking - the further development of outsourcing, the transfer of any small part of the work that does not require such a high level of qualification to the communities, with automatic selection of the contractor, quality assessment, editing and payment
Universal Trade System is a universal trading platform that combines all existing and possible types of electronic stores, auctions, exchanges, advertisement boards, as well as means for interaction and communication B2B, B2C, C2B, C2C and social networks in one simple and intuitive mechanism.
AdTrans - automatic translation system from any to any language with a quality no worse than 50%
data flow control system - a system of intelligent distribution of information flows into categories and subcategories, taking into account the properties of the human psyche and perception
intelligence search system - and so it is clear ...
Who is the first to make a breakthrough in these areas, will be able in the future to skim the cream in size, surpassing the wildest fantasies.
Although these figures are even smaller than the volumes of individual Internet companies in the USA - Amazon.com's sales for 2005 amounted to $ 8.12 billion, and the amount of successful transactions at eBay online auction was $ 44.3 billion, and only 0.01% of the world’s electronic turnover, estimated at $ 38-44 trillion, such growth rates inspire optimism and hope for the same growth in the future.
There are no data on Ukraine in open sources (I am afraid that in closed ones too), but considering that Ukraine lags behind Russia in terms of Internet development by 2-3 years, the number of Uanet users is 4-5 times less, and the volume of Ukraine’s economy less by an order of magnitude, this value can be estimated at $ 50-100 million.
')
Let's try to calculate this figure from the other side. If in Russia, the online advertising market in 2005 was, according to various estimates, $ 60-100 million, which is 2-3% of e-commerce, then, with a similar ratio of 2.5 Ukrainian advertising million, they give the same $ 80-125 million of electronic revenue.
But due to the expected overcoming in 2007 of 12% of the line of Internet users from the population in Ukraine, this area expects the same as in Russia, if not more rapid growth.
At the same time, universal globalization in the world creates prerequisites for the success of any local startup proposing an original and new concept, as well as substantial competition for local projects trying to copy thoughtlessly successful foreign firms from both prototypes and domestic and foreign followers.
American journalist Thomas Friedman \ Thomas L. Friedman, in the book "Flat World: A Brief History of the Twenty First Century" \ The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century writes:
“the uniqueness of the current situation is that individuals and small groups of people for the first time in the history of mankind had the opportunity to cooperate and compete on the world market as full-fledged and full-fledged producers and consumers of goods and services. At first, globalization was a lot of states, later - corporations, and Nowadays, individuals and mini-collectives are increasingly involved in it. These competing partners can enter into economic competition in all countries and on all continents, creating corporations or modifying the work of existing ones. Their chances of success are determined not by citizenship and residence, but by education, ability, perseverance, ingenuity and access to the global communication system. This situation radically changes the conditions of activity of companies that have already emerged, which have to either constantly restructure in a new competitive environment, or to give up their positions and go out of business. The Internet and other communication technologies have made such cooperation possible in the implementation of x various works requested by modern civilization, which is carried out almost instantaneously across the planet. The whole planet becomes a single production field in which uniform working rules apply. "
Ukrainian journalist Mikhail Dudnik at the end of 2003 wrote:
“The possibilities and advantages of e-commerce are obvious and do not need additional advertising. Regularly conducted research demonstrates the same picture - effective demand and lack of confidence in electronic stores. Most Ukrainian e-shops are reminiscent of Soviet-era shops - dull rooms, a small selection, boorish service. This is primarily evidence of the absence of competition in the market - there are buyers who are comfortable making orders via the Internet, and at the same time there are a very small number of sellers who really can buy something. ”
Since then, the picture in Uaneta, if improved, is not too much. The Internet is mainly used for navigating the website of the online store and placing an order. Payment banking systems operating through a standard browser are still rather cumbersome and sin with complex authentication systems. The preferred form of payment in Ukraine for the overwhelming majority of the population is cash payment.
At the same time, it is impossible not to note the positive changes that have taken place in the Russian-speaking part of the network in recent years, mainly due to the efforts of major players - search engines and portals who have finally overcome the level of self-repayment and are steadily increasing their income. Their efforts have achieved significant success in developing search prices for trading firms and creating electronic supermarkets: finding products in electronic stores and comparing prices has become much easier and more convenient. The quantity and quality of online stores has significantly increased, but really new and original ones, with innovative ideas, solutions and services among them, are still very few.
However, such types of Internet businesses as Internet auctions, electronic bulletin boards and other services of the C2C segment in the Russian-speaking part of the network, it seems, remained at the level of services of the past millennium, never heard of Web 2.0, social networks, Ajax and so on. thousands and thousands of dull monotonous standard resources, and almost no attempt to create something truly new and original.
On the other hand, from Russian-speaking startups that can be attributed to Web 2.0, most are clones of Western prototypes, almost all do not have a coherent business model, working on the principle of “gaining more users, and then we will see,” the scope of their activities for some reason do not overlap with real business and trade, but are boiled in their own juice on the topics of blogs, services, gadgets, search engines, optimizers, public relations and advertising, very far from the needs and interests of the majority of users. This is all so reminiscent of the recent "growth of the means of production of the means of production of the means of production ..."
Therefore, those wishing to succeed in modern Internet business need to create services that connect the world of real business and virtual communities into a single whole, competitive and effective, not with the help of “Web-gradient” gradients, fills and reflections, Ajax-a and the “beta” lettering, but based on absolutely fresh non-traditional mechanisms of interaction between the real and the virtual world at the level of inventions and discoveries. Only on this path can new Gates and Brins appear, radically changing the picture of the virtual world.
Let me imagine a little imagination and present possible services of a new generation that can provide a qualitative leap not only in virtual, but also in real life:
Outworking - the further development of outsourcing, the transfer of any small part of the work that does not require such a high level of qualification to the communities, with automatic selection of the contractor, quality assessment, editing and payment
Universal Trade System is a universal trading platform that combines all existing and possible types of electronic stores, auctions, exchanges, advertisement boards, as well as means for interaction and communication B2B, B2C, C2B, C2C and social networks in one simple and intuitive mechanism.
AdTrans - automatic translation system from any to any language with a quality no worse than 50%
data flow control system - a system of intelligent distribution of information flows into categories and subcategories, taking into account the properties of the human psyche and perception
intelligence search system - and so it is clear ...
Who is the first to make a breakthrough in these areas, will be able in the future to skim the cream in size, surpassing the wildest fantasies.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/4670/
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