I do not pretend to comrade
five laurels, but it seems to me that the cycle of articles has been interrupted at the most interesting place, and I will allow myself to fill this gap.
- Disappearance
- Coastal Tramp
- Goldmine
- Conspiracies
- Possible scenario
- Captain
- True
5. Possible scenario
In truth, the fate of flight MH370 can already be said with much confidence. First, he disappeared by the will of man. It is impossible to imagine that the known flight trajectory was caused by any known combination of failures in the materiel and human errors - taking into account the complete radio silence of the board for several hours. On-board computer failure, control system error, breakage of hydraulic lines, icing, lightning or birds hit, meteorite impact, volcanic ash, mechanical damage, failure of sensors or instruments, breakdown of radio or electrical equipment, fire, smoke, explosive decompression, explosion in the cargo compartment , loss of orientation by a pilot, medical problems, a bomb, war or a natural disaster — none of these factors can explain the flight path.
Secondly, despite the hypotheses, the control of the aircraft was not captured from the hardware compartment, the space under the cockpit. Pages of the text can go to the explanation, but the plane was still controlled from the cockpit. The takeover took place in the 20-minute period from 1:01 am, when the plane leveled at an altitude of 35,000 feet to 1:21 am, when it disappeared from the screen of the secondary radar. During the same period, the automatic telemetry system sent a standard half-hour report via satellite to the service department of the airline. It contained information about the level of fuel, altitude, speed and geographical location, none of the parameters were unusual. This means that the satellite communication system was working at that moment.
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By the time the plane went out of sight of the secondary radar (reading the transponder tag), it is likely - given the improbability that both pilots acted in concert - that one of them was incapacitated or died, or was locked outside the cockpit. The logs of the primary radar — both military and civilian — later indicated that the driver of the flight MH370 must have turned off the autopilot because the turn to the south-west was so sharp that it must have been done manually. The circumstances suggest that whoever was at the helm, he deliberately arranged depressurization of the aircraft. (
approx. lane : how? I do not really understand how a pilot from the cockpit can depressurize the cabin) At about the same time, almost all electrical systems were deliberately turned off. The reasons for the shutdown are not known. But one of its consequences was the temporary loss of communication with the satellite.
An electrical engineer named Mike Exner from Boulder, Colorado, who participated in the work of the Independent Group, actively studied radar data. He believes that when performing a turn, the plane rose to a height of 40,000 feet, on the border of a practical ceiling for this type. During the maneuver, passengers would experience some overload - the feeling of being pressed back into a seat. Exner believes that the rise was needed to accelerate the effect of depressurization of the aircraft, so that as a result, people in the cabin, at least, lost the ability to actively act.
Passengers in the cabin would have become incapacitated for several minutes, lost consciousness, and gently died, without suffocation or other effects.
Deliberate depressurization would be an obvious way - and, perhaps, the only one - to put the potentially aggressive passengers to rest in the plane, which would have to fly for several more hours. In the cabin, this maneuver could go unnoticed, except for the sudden loss of oxygen masks and, possibly, the flight attendants use several portable devices of similar design (oxygen cylinder connected to the mask, a little like a small fire extinguisher -
approx. Lane ). The masks in the cabin were not designed for more than 15 minutes of use with an emergency drop below 13,000 feet; when traveling at an altitude of 40,000 feet, they had no value at all. This scene was dimly lit by emergency lights; the dead passengers sat strapped in their seats, their faces were probably wearing useless oxygen masks suspended from pipes to the ceiling.
6. Captain
The only possible scenario is the hijacking by someone from the inside, by someone who does not need to use force to get into the cabin. That is, it must be a pilot who has a blurred mind. The option that the pilot wanted to kill hundreds of innocent passengers while committing suicide seems irrational; however, this has happened before. In 1997, the captain of the Singapore (
approx. Lane : Indonesian) airline SilkAir is believed to have turned off the black boxes on the Boeing 737 and collided with the surface of the river at a speed higher than the speed of sound. In 1999, the EgyptAir 990 flight crashed at sea off the coast of Long Island due to the actions of the co-pilot, killing all people on board. In 2013, just a few months before the disappearance of the MH370, the captain of the flight 470 LAM Mozambique Airlines sent a twin-engine Embraer E190 at its peak from cruising altitude, killing all 27 passengers and all six crew members. The most recent case (at the time of the publication of the original article) was the Airbus aircraft of Germanwings, whose pilot crashed into the French Alps on March 24, 2015, which also led to the death of all passengers on board. The second pilot, Andreas Lyubits, waited until the captain went to the toilet, and then blocked him outside the cabin. Lubitz had a depression in his medical record, and as it turned out later, he studied the disappearance of MH370 a year earlier.
From the issue of The Atlantic in November 2001: the author of the original article about EgyptAir 990 (eng.)In the case of the MH370, the co-pilot is not very similar to the criminal. He was young and optimistic and reportedly planned to marry. No troubles were known about his life, he was not noticed in protest moods or uncertainty. He was not a German, who made not a very good choice of his life in the stagnant sector of low-cost airlines, providing not too much income and even less prestige. He flew a great Boeing 777 in a country where the national airline is a source of pride, and its pilots are still considered quite successful people.
But the captain Zachary raises concerns. The first warning is his image in official reports as a flawless person - a good pilot and a calm family man who loved to play flight simulators. This is an image promoted by the Zachary family, but it contradicts numerous signs of problems that have been too prominently underlined.
The official statement of the Malaysian police denies what was already known about Captain Zachary. No one was surprised.
Police discovered some aspects of Zachari's life that were supposed to make them dig deeper. The formal conclusions made by the investigators were inadequate. The official report, speaking of Zachary in the role of the FAC, reads:
FAC Zachary, according to reports from the airline, had a good resistance to stress. He was not seen in restlessness, apathy, or irritability. There were no significant changes in his lifestyle, he had no interpersonal conflicts or family stress ... There were no behavioral signs of social exclusion, changes in habits or interest ... When studying the behavioral pattern of the PIC Zachary on the cameras [at the airport] on the day of the flight and previous 3 flights, there was no significant change in behavior. On all video surveillance records, the appearance was similar, that is, well-groomed and dressed. His gait, posture, facial expression and manners were normal.
This was contrary to what is known about Zachary. After talking in Kuala Lumpur with people who knew him or knew something about him, I learned that Zachary was often lonely and upset. His wife left him and lived in another house. By his own admission to friends, he spent a lot of time pacing the empty rooms, killing time between flights. He has also been romantic. It is known that he established relationships with a married woman and her three children, one of whom was disabled. He was also fascinated by two young Internet models that he encountered on social networks and whose Facebook pages he left comments that apparently did not evoke a response. Some were blatantly sexy. For example, in one of the comments he mentioned that one of the girls — she was in a robe on a published photo — looked as if she had just come out of the shower. Zachary, it seems, is a bit off his old, well-established life. He communicated with his children, but they grew up and lived separately. Detachment and loneliness, which can accompany the use of social networks, hardly helped him to cope with his problems - and Zachary sat a lot on social networks. Air crash department investigators and enthusiasts agree that they strongly suspect him of depression.
If Malaysia were a country where officials can be expected to hear the truth, then Zachary’s police portrait of a healthy and happy person would have some weight. But Malaysia does not apply to them, and the official lack of evidence to the contrary only underlines that Zachary had psychological problems.
Examination of the simulator Zachary showed that he modeled the flight, roughly coinciding with the route MH370 - the path lay northward around Indonesia, followed by a long flight to the south, which ended with the exhaustion of fuel over the Indian Ocean. Malaysian investigators claim that this is one of several hundred flights that were completed in the simulator. This statement is generally true, but not completely. Victor Yannello, another distinguished member of the Independent Group, an engineer and entrepreneur from the city of Roanoke, Virginia, conducted an extensive analysis of the flight simulator. His conclusion underlines the fact that Malaysian investigators have ignored. Of all the flights extracted from the simulator Zachary, it is distinguished by the following. The flight plan corresponding to the MH370 trajectory was the only one that Zachary did not perform continuously - in other words, he took off on the simulator and allowed the computer to simulate flight hour by hour until the plane reached the destination airport. Instead, he jumped several times on the time scale by hand, moving the plane forward and subtracting the fuel as it was consumed. Yannello believes that Zachary is responsible for sabotage. It’s unlikely that Zachary could have recognized something new from the technical side of the flight, rehearsing actions in a game-like Microsoft product for the general public. Iannello suspects that the purpose of these flights is to leave a suicide note, a farewell piece of evidence. “It's as if he imitated a simulation,” says Yannello of Zachary, commenting on the flight of the MH370. Without an explanation of the reasons, Zachary’s arguments are impossible to learn. But the data from the simulator can not be brushed off as a coincidence.
In Kuala Lumpur, I met with one of Zachary's longtime friends, also the captain of the Boeing 777. His name was dropped because of the possibility of unpleasant consequences for him. This man also agreed that Zachary was guilty of the disappearance of the flight, although he came to this conclusion extremely reluctantly. He described the mystery of flight MH370 as a wide pyramid at the bottom, but only one person on top. That is, the investigation could begin with many possible explanations, but it ended with the only correct one. He said: “This is impossible. It does not fit in my head. But this is the only possible conclusion. ” I asked how Zachary could deal with his companion in the cockpit, co-pilot Fariq Hamid. - "Easy. Zachary was an instructor. It was enough for him to ask him to go check something in the cabin, and the guy would not be there anymore. ” When asked what could be the motive for such an action, he had no idea. According to him, Zachary was experiencing problems in family life, he recently slept with several flight attendants. "So what? We all do that. You fly around the world, behind you have beautiful girls. But his wife found out about it. ”He is almost certain that this alone should not lead to such a breakdown, but Zachary’s emotional state clearly could be one of the factors.
Does the lack of all these details in the official report indicate that Zachary is covered by Malaysian investigators? Intrigues, specific settings of his simulator, not to mention the technical details that do not form a single picture? At the moment we can not say. We know something of what the investigators knew, but decided not to disclose. Most likely, they found much more facts that we still do not know.
Returning to the demise of the MH370. You can imagine Zachary at the end of the flight, fastened to a mega-comfortable chair in the cabin, in a cocoon of soft light from the panels of familiar devices; realizing that after all the way he has done is no way back, and feeling that there is no hurry. Most likely, he has long since restored pressure and temperature in the cabin. Around the roar of working engines stood on the flat-screen displays are beautiful icons, switches and toggle switches flicker with a carefully thought-out backlight, the outside air whistles softly. The cabin is the deepest, most secure, and most personal of his houses. At about 7 in the morning, the sun rose over the horizon in the east, to the left of the plane. A few minutes later it lit up and the ocean far below. Zachary died during the flight? At some point, he could once again relieve pressure and end his life, but this is very controversial. The simulation conducted by the investigators shows that the plane, if it had just been left alone, would not have flown down as quickly as can be seen on satellite data - in other words, before the crash, someone was at the controls, actively helping to break the plane. In any case, somewhere on the seventh turn during the entire route, after the engines stopped due to lack of fuel, the plane entered an uncontrolled spiral peak, falling at a speed of over 15,000 feet per minute. With this speed, the plane literally crumbled into confetti, touching the water - which is confirmed by the fragments of Blaine Gibson.
7. Truth
Official investigations have so far ceased. Australians did what they could. The Chinese want to dig further and censor any news that could stir up the families of the victims. The French went to France, re-analyzing satellite data. Malaysians just want this topic to stop bothering people. Last fall, I attended an event in the city of Putrajaya, where Grace Nathan and Gibson stood in front of the cameras with Transport Minister Anthony Lowk. The Minister officially received five new fragments collected over the summer. He was so pitiful that he was angry with himself. He barely spoke or answered questions from the press. Nathan was literally seething with such an attitude on the part of the minister. That evening at dinner, she insisted that the government could not easily get away from this topic: “They did not follow the protocol. They did not follow the procedure. I think it's terrible. Much more could be done. As a result of the inaction of the air force - of all parties that did not follow the protocol, who were on duty in the first hour after the first noticed problems with communications - we are now forced to spend tremendous efforts. Each of them violated the protocol once, several times. Every person who was responsible for some actions at that time did not do what he was supposed to do. In varying degrees of severity. Individually, some may not seem like bad guys, but if you look at the situation as a whole, each of them made a one hundred percent contribution to the fact that the plane was not found. ”
Each was a public servant. Nathan hoped that Ocean Infinity, which had recently discovered the missing Argentine submarine, would return to the search, again, free of charge. The company offered the opportunity to do it earlier this week. But the Malaysian government would have to sign a contract. Nathan fears that this will not be done for political and cultural reasons - and this has not been done so far.
If debris is ever found, they will put an end to all theories that ignore satellite data or the fact that the plane continued a difficult controlled flight after an initial turn from heading to Beijing, and then remained in the air for another six hours. No, he did not catch fire, he remained in the air all this time. No, it did not become a “ghostly flight”, being capable of orientation in space, shutting down and re-enabling systems. No, he was not shot down after long reflections by the military of some of the remaining countries that were hanging on his tail before pulling the trigger. And no, it did not happen somewhere in the South China Sea, and it does not stand untouched in a masked hangar in Central Asia. The common feature of such explanations is that they contradict the reliable information available to the investigators.
In addition, detecting debris and two black boxes can do little. The voice recorder works in a two-hour cycle, which probably will only contain the sounds of the last alarms, unless the person behind the control panel was alive and in the mood to explain to the descendants. The other “black box”, the flight data recorder, will provide information on the operation of the aircraft throughout the entire flight, but it will not reveal any malfunction of the relevant system - because no failure can explain what happened. At best, he will answer some relatively insignificant questions, for example, when exactly the pressure on the plane was released and how long it remained low, or how exactly satellite communication was turned off and then turned on again. The online community will be seething, but this is hardly the event that everyone is waiting for.
The important answers are probably not on the ocean floor, but on land in Malaysia. This is the main direction of research. Unless, of course, the Malaysian police know more than they dare to say if they are not as incompetent as the air force and air traffic controllers. The riddle can have a simple solution, and it can be frustrating. Answers may well be near, but they are harder to find than any black box. If Blaine Gibson wants a real adventure, he can spend a year walking around Kuala Lumpur.