A month and a half ago, when the world economy moved into an acute phase, I conducted a small survey of colleagues in the workshop on this blog.

We were interested in the opinions of our colleagues on how global cataclysms will affect our small industry and the business of each of us. In addition to the survey, the last month I talked a lot with our partners from different cities, learned how they felt the changes and what they expected in the future. Now it is already clear to the majority that the expectations that we will not be touched were not justified. Anyway, most of us are affected by the crisis.

I have always been interested in economics, so I want to discuss our economic hopes and illusions, as well as economic threats for us, the web developers. And about the strategy of survival and development of web studios in the new environment, I also want to talk separately.
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Therefore, I divided my thoughts into two parts: macro and microeconomic. In this, the first article will be more theoretical arguments, in the second - practical questions and ideas for improving the state of the web studio business. I will add the second a little later.

I will say right away that everything written is my personal opinion, or the opinion of authoritative people for me. Communication on the merits and exchange of views on the topic of the article are welcome.



The majority of the global economy remembers only when it becomes so bad that it is impossible not to notice. It’s like health: while it’s fine, we don’t think about its existence.

Any industry and any company depends on the state of the economy, as any human activity depends on the state of his health. Therefore, we start with global issues.

1. What is happening at all?

George Soros and some other figures of the same scale already openly say that the destruction of the Bretton Woods system originated after the war and is the foundation of the world economy.

The Bretton Woods system replaced the previous world economic model, which began to die in the 30s of the last century. Now its time has come. Therefore, the current crisis is comparable in scale only with the times of the Great Depression 80 years ago. It is clear that the official authorities will not dare to say this.

What is now called a crisis did not begin yesterday or even a couple of years ago. And this is an inevitable part of the global macroeconomic cycle, the onset of which was predetermined many years ago and the whole question was only when this would happen to the nearest decade. Here, it began.

It is interesting to read the interview with Mikhail Khazin , who was one of the first to warn about this crisis with us, and some American economists-prophets have long been mentioned in Davydov’s blog, who were laughed at a year ago .

In macroeconomics, there are cycle theories or wave theories. “Kondratieff's long waves” describe periods of several decades of economic growth and stagnation, each next wave repeating the phases of the previous one. The change of large waves is accompanied by a state of systemic crises.



The last systemic crises of the economy were in the 30s and in the 70s, now - the next one. These waves are so large that human life fits only in one phase of such a wave, so we do not notice them. Inside each big wave there are smaller waves, and in them even smaller and shorter ones.

Do not think that this crisis could have been avoided and that we simply had no luck. He was absolutely inevitable. If everything had not begun now, it would inevitably begin in a few years. For macroeconomic phenomena, the difference in a few years is small.

It’s quite strange for us all to realize that a couple of months ago everything grew so fast and bloomed that it seemed to be forever. Even our government thought so to speak about us. But you can not live life without hurting, and always aching at the wrong time. So with the crisis. Whenever he started, he would always start out of time, and we would still not be ready for him - both at the government level and at the level of the web studio director.

The only thing you can comfort yourself with is that in our century there will be no second such crisis anymore, our children and grandchildren will have the next comparable scale.

2. Common opinions and delusions.

Some of them sounded in the comments to my survey, some I heard from colleagues, some read in the press. Here I cite only those opinions on which I have comments.

“That's all around screaming about the crisis, but we are all right - the projects have not frozen, customers pay on time. We have not touched "

The crisis for any company results only in one thing - a decrease in effective demand . Not all industries, and even more so companies felt this decline at the same time and with equal force. In some industries, demand has even increased (people began to buy rice bags, for example). But in most industries there is a clear decline in sales, with all the consequences.

Last month, many studios had the opportunity to understand the difference between effective demand and imaginary demand. Throughout October, most of us had a large number of requests for sites, but actual sales and revenues were noticeably less than we were used to. That is, the visibility of the demand for sites remained, but the willingness of customers to pay decreased.

Imagine that an economy is a living organism, where each cell or organ is a company (large or small). All cells of the body are connected to each other directly or through metabolism.

The role of the circulatory system is played by financial institutions, and blood is money. So, if the body got into a dangerous environment (into fire or icy water), then some cells died immediately, but not all cells instantly felt what had happened to the body.

Even if the organism is dead, his hair and nails continue to grow for a short time as the corresponding cells continue to do their work. They just do not know what happened with the body, and the nutrients they will be enough for a while.

It is clear that our large organism did not die, but it became very sick and is now in a state of shock.

You should not expect that you will receive new orders and money in the same amount as over the past couple of years. Sooner or later, the fall in demand will reach your customers - and through them, to you.

“This is a crisis of financial companies. IT-shnye markets crisis touches little

Many colleagues still think so, remembering what a frantic demand for IT was a few months ago in all industries. In reality, the opposite is true. As a familiar professor of mathematics said, “It is generally accepted that mathematics is the queen of science. In fact, she is a servant of the sciences, for all other sciences use her, and do not serve her. ”

The same can be said about IT, and about the advertising industry. They are needed by all other sectors of the real economy during periods of growth, and they are the first to save on them during periods of recession. Least of all, the crisis will affect the dealers of vegetables and weapons, and not IT specialists.

And the crisis of the financial market always passes into other sectors, since absolutely everything depends on finances. Even if you do not take loans.

“The government knows what to do, it will fix and save everything”

This is not true. The current people in governments have never come across crises of this magnitude, because they happen very rarely. And those who have come across something similar have already died.

Therefore, officials are looking for a way out of old books and unverified theories. They are similar to doctors who are faced with an unknown, terrible disease, the treatment of which is not described in the literature, therefore they are treated blindly and at random - aspirin, massage and abundant enemas.

Of course, there are economists who understand the situation deeper than the others and who began to talk about the impending crisis long before our days. But nobody listened to them or could not hear. And such people, as a rule, do not work in governments.

In addition, our government will first of all save its state-owned corporations, and it has never been our business to deal with our small businesses. The money allocated from state funds to support business will be eaten by corruption and inflation along the way.

If the government significantly reduces taxes on small businesses, as well as provides calm on the streets of the cities and a smooth devaluation of money instead of a landslide, then we can already say that it helped us.

“This crisis is not as terrible as in 98m. We have a large stabilization fund and nanotechnology. Russia will survive the crisis more easily, it’s the US problem. ”

As they say, do not read Soviet newspapers at lunch. This crisis is much more global and serious. If the year 98 was repeated, it would be easier for you and me - most of the studios would be reoriented to export their services to Europe and the USA and earn in hard currency.

But this world crisis, in Europe and the USA, is now the same drop in demand for IT, and they do not need our services, only if it is very cheap. And we will not be able to work very cheaply, because the cost of living in major cities of Russia is not lower, but somewhere much higher than in the USA, in most indicators (the cost of food, housing, transport, etc.).

Therefore, the cost of our products and services is unlikely to sell at competitive prices on the background of the Chinese and Indians.

Our stabilization fund is also not a medicine, it is melting very quickly. Last week alone, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation declined by $ 22 billion. For comparison, the estimated value of all of Yandex before the crisis is about $ 3 billion, and now it’s even less.

Our economy depends only on the demand and the price of oil and gas. Therefore, we are more sensitive to the problems of developed economies than they are. For example, if in the USA or Europe the standard of living, for example, drops by 20%, then we have by 40%. Our stock market has already proven this.

“By April (or August) 2009 the crisis will end”

For some, it will end even earlier or has already ended. I don’t know where this salutary April came from, probably because in the spring life always seems easier.

By April, we may have a stabilization fund. And, probably, by the spring we will see a much cheaper ruble against the background of the depreciating dollar.

Now even stable companies that feel fine have frozen their budgets and projects just “just in case.” By spring, they are likely to resume their marketing and even investment activity. Accordingly, the demand for IT and advertising services is also increasing. Demand will be less supply, prices will decrease, the scale of projects and budgets, too. Life will continue, though not as fat.

For everyone who can and wants to work, there will be work. As for the resumption of economic growth, the theory of cycles says that after a couple of decades of growth, at least several years of recession should pass. By the next spring we will get used to what is happening and stop thinking so much about it. The man does not get used to this.

"Kick came, we all die!"

Everything is not so terrible. The question of survival in a crisis is at the level of business companies, but not the physical lives of citizens.

A fall in demand will cause a collapse of all world economies, many enterprises and offices will rise, many people will lose their jobs. But most of all, it will be expensive goods and services related to luxury goods (Porsche, MacBook, spas, intranet portals). And the most simple and basic things (beets, toilet paper, travel in a trolley bus, inexpensive hosting, selling sites) will be consumed in even larger quantities.

To meet the basic needs of the population, the governments of most countries will have enough resources and intelligence. Otherwise, the people will replace these governments. Therefore, no one will die from hunger or from cold.

It will be easier for people to eat, drink cheaper vodka and watch more TV in the absence of other activities. And on TV there will be less advertising (there is nothing to pay) and more Petrosian (so that life is more fun). By the way, if you did not have time to try foie gras, now you have to suffer a couple more years.

According to forecasts, between half and two thirds of companies will survive the crisis and recession, the weakest, inflexible and unbalanced businesses will die out. The rest will even have new advantages due to the crisis, we will talk about them later.

“No need to listen to the hysteria of these cowards and pessimists”

My text really looks gloomy, but that does not mean that I am a deeply pessimist. I'm just an economist, and my first diploma wrote just about those very waves of Kondratieff. And if it were not for the year 98, I would continue to work in banks and investment companies, and would not develop my business in IT.

I noticed that the topic of the crisis is now the main one in communication between managers and entrepreneurs with each other, and I am not an exception. For us, this topic besides fear and negativity causes curiosity and even sports excitement. And hired specialists, on the contrary, try to avoid this topic in communication with each other. For them, it bears only unpleasant experiences “shorten — not shorten.”

This is because the director and owner of the company much more depends on whether it will survive, and therefore, at least some employees will keep their jobs. And only he himself and his responsibilities in the project depend on the specialist.

In my opinion, those who are trying to pretend that nothing is happening or hoping for luck are the most cowardly. This is an ostrich tactic, it is from fear. But ostriches will be plucked by the crisis in the first place.

For this reason, entrepreneurs cannot now bury their heads in the sand; they must be ready to fight for themselves, their business and their teams. Therefore, as the sages say, “hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” And count only on your own strength.

3. A bit of positive :-)

Any crisis passes, leaving behind a lot of free territories and a sufficient number of hardened strong companies. All those who know how to work quickly and well not only survive, but also capture new markets and resources.

Many Russian companies in recent years have been weak and inefficient. Consumer boom from expensive oil allowed them to exist well even without worrying about the quality and adequate price of services. Good news for all consumers - freeloaders and hackers will be bent first. Remain those who appreciate the consumer and knows how to serve him.

Similar good news for employers. In the near future will not have to hire unskilled employees for high salaries. On the contrary, there will be a chance to attract real pros, which previously could not be found. And the pros will have a choice where and with whom to work.

And employees, whose utility and activity in general is difficult to notice, will receive a serious incentive to engage in self-development.

Among the clients of the studios there will be fewer idiots who do not want to understand why and why they make the site. Less time will be spent on empty creative ambitions of customers in the development of designs. The concept of "site effectiveness" will cease to be a magical mantra, and will become a measurable quantity. And customers will be willing to pay if they show this value.

Finally, the Internet industry, having experienced the first shock of a fall in demand, can win against the background of competing media. If we can prove to our customers that the target contact from the Internet is cheaper, that the coverage of the targeted audience is better, then the budgets for Internet marketing can significantly increase due to the share of offline marketing tools in the media mix of companies. Therefore, we expect a surge in effective demand for many services of Internet agencies.

In order to better adapt to the new realities, restructuring of the studios themselves is required - changes in competitive methods, personnel policy, cost reduction methods, reduction of inflation risk, cost control, review of strategy, competition and partnership with freelancing.

In the next article I propose to discuss these particular measures.