Will the introduction of a 15% tax overseas e-commerce kill

A week ago, ACIT proposed to impose on all purchases of Russians in foreign online stores an additional tax of 15%. It can be understood. Despite the brave struggle of this organization, FCS and other services, the volume of foreign trade continues to grow. In 2018, they broke another record : the increase reached 24% over the year, according to the results, the Russians spent more than $ 10 billion! All this is basically - without paying duties and VAT. It is beneficial for buyers, but not profitable for large stores, tax and state budget.

Since the previous measures were not enough, and foreign purchases continue to increase, it’s time to take something else. Previously, the government has repeatedly listened to the proposals of ACIT. We see no reason not to obey this time.

We have no pleasant words about this. Obviously, this can hit hard on domestic buyers, who will have fewer attractive options. But it became interesting to us, but what will this 15% tax really affect? Does this figure make sense, and how much really you need to introduce a tax to discourage buyers from interest in foreign sites?

Of course, shopping abroad has many factors. Not everyone is after the price. Many people order and deliver with us new models, the latest collections or things that are simply not sold in Russia. But, of course, price is the most important thing. That is why it is so pressured in ACIT. So let's see what is actually happening in terms of prices, and how badly such a new tax on goods can hit our business and Russian wallets.

Experts say that “the drivers of growth in cross-border trade are categories such as electronics, clothing and shoes” (this is from the same RBC article). We have recently been well going all sorts of sweets and branded cosmetics, but let's go through the most popular segments.

Everything is clear with Amazon, Walmart, eBay and other giants. They can give low prices simply due to their volumes and the competition of sellers inside the site. While the project of Yandex and Sberbank does not develop, there is nothing to compare them with in Russia. Therefore, for the purity of the experiment, let's look at two of the most similar store. Just one sells for Russians, and the other for Americans. There are actually a lot of them.

For example, Adidas.ru and Adidas.com. The same business, the same owners, the same website (only with different banners for new offers). It is easier to compare here than many other stores, because the company in the Russian site leaves the English names of the models of their clothes and shoes.

So, we take goods in the Russian shop, we hammer in search of the American. We find a match. A few hours later we get a simple sign - a small comparison of prices Adidas . What is visible in it? On average, in Russia the same shoes and the same clothes are sold at 45% more expensive. There are especially serious cases when the difference is 176% (discount in America), there are those cherished for ACIT 15% (discount in Russia).

Immediately noticeable a few simple things. Americans love their discounts. In Russia, they are treated with more caution. Much of the goods on Adidas.com are sold at a discount, while in Russia the original price is displayed on them. Another factor is the fact that the majority of goods sold in the Russian Federation are previous collections that have not been produced abroad for half a year, and there they are trying to sell off their remains. Many things that exist in the Russian version of the site have long been discontinued in the US.

Once again: no one suspects the company of a special overstatement of its prices for the Russians, and why should it be so. But all the same, due to the sales and logistics, all without exception, goods abroad are much cheaper, plus in the American version of the site they are an order of magnitude more. Still, the United States for Adidas (and for many others) is the main market, and Russia, unfortunately, is secondary.

The most fun, in our opinion, was the example of the Russian national team T-shirt for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. It would seem that the shape of Russia, right? But in the USA it costs almost two times cheaper! Is there more demand for it?

By the way, we checked it during the World Cup - then in Russia it cost even more, 8990 rubles. And surely tens of thousands of people bought it, even without suspecting that it could cost exactly three times cheaper than the * .com version of the same site.

Well, maybe Adidas is something special, and all others raise the price of the desired 15%? We look at the site of another order. Donna Karan New York is a fashion house selling popular clothes and accessories for women. Plus for us is that there are DKNY.com and DKNY.ru, absolutely similar sites. The downside is that for some reason the names of the models are not indicated in Russian (they just write “Blouse”, “Pants”), which makes finding and comparing models a bit more difficult.

Not many things are in contact, so the table for DKNY is even more modest . But the difference in the amounts is amazing. The average cheat for Russian buyers is 149% . There are two records: for a T-shirt, which in the United States costs the equivalent of 2,535 rubles, in Russia they are asked for 9,990 rubles (a growth of 294%). And for the jacket, which in the States is sold for more or less acceptable 7,735 rubles, in the Russian Federation the same store wants 21,990 rubles (an increase of 1,4255 rubles, that is, two of the same jackets).

Needless to say, as long as there are people in Russia who are ready to give so much for “prestigious” clothes, 15% will not play a role here or not. As long as the store itself does not have the desire to cut prices for the Russian Federation, nothing will change. Fashionable clothes in Russia are screwed up to the ceiling, no efforts of AKIT, even if you do a tax of 100%, the situation here will not be corrected.

Okay, maybe a big price increase is typical only for shoes and clothes (they beat our mole at customs, for example)? What is electronics? Another simple comparison: Apple.com and Apple.ru. Here it is most convenient, even to search for nothing, it is enough to replace ".com" with ".ru", and we get the page of the same model in a different version of the store. Thank you, Apple!

What we see in the table ? The average price difference for Apple is 33.6% . The largest for the iPhone, the lowest for the Apple Watch and iPad. The percentage figures are not very impressive, but in reality the savings are huge. The difference for the MacBook Pro 256 Gb is 38 thousand rubles - almost the average salary in the country. The difference for iPhone XS and XS Max is 25-27 thousand. Even if this “profit” is reduced by half, the amounts remain too large. Obviously, those who already know that you can buy Apple abroad, even with the introduction of the new tax will continue to do so.

Another comparison: the M.Video store, one of the founding fathers of AKIT, is against Newegg / B & H, the same electronics stores, only from the USA. Result : on average, 47% wrap. And the new record holder is the Acer gaming laptop, which “has grown, no less, by 42,255 rubles (58%). Through the efforts of AKIT, a part of this money will already have to pay a fee (it starts to go if the price of goods is above € 500), but the savings still turn out to be very solid. It is unlikely that someone will lose the desire to get acquainted with foreign sites, if they understand that they can save more money in an hour than they earn in a few days.

And, of course, it is worth recalling that the same Adidas and DKNY are not the most profitable stores in America. Here they are taken simply as a classic example. To see what will happen if you do not change anything at all, except the country of purchase. In fact, it is much more profitable to take clothes and shoes in the USA in discounters, like 6PM, where sales are going on all day, or on Amazon / eBay, where sellers have a reason to try to offer a minimum price.

In general, I'm sorry, AKIT, but 15% will obviously not be enough here. It does not cut off any categories of goods. Shopping in the States will still be cheaper - except for those things that in Russia and the United States and so are the same, like Chinese smartphones. In order for those who already buy abroad to go back to Russian stores, the minimum tax on foreign purchases should be at least 30%. Then, perhaps, faster delivery and convenient returns will begin to outweigh again.

So it’s not for nothing that people in AKIT are experiencing. The business model of the sites belonging to this organization is often based on ordering themselves “over the hill”, and then selling things to customers who were too lazy to do so. They have to pay for warehouses, for employees, for their own marketing. And to receive a net profit, so that there is something to bring officials for the necessary laws. At the beginning of the two thousandth, there were no such problems: Amazon and Alibaba were just beginning to develop, users in Russia overwhelmingly did not know about them, and purchases over the Internet were not so common. Now the genie has jumped out of the bottle, you can not drive it back (unless by “Cheburnet”). One extra duty here, as we see, will not be decisive.

And, of course, members of the organization probably have hope that reducing competition will allow AKIT shops to freely raise prices, having inspired customers that they have no alternative. Experts, funny, call the same number of increase, 15%. And over time, this will again push customers towards foreign sites.

So, from our point of view, they make us advertising, showing that they are not capable of winning in direct competition. And once again they make the topic shine in the news, reminding customers that all goods in foreign stores are still cheaper. Even if a new tax is introduced (we estimate this probability as medium-high), prices for Amazon, eBay, AliExpress and manufacturers' stores will remain much lower than Russian ones. Especially after the next expected price increase for Russian retailers (it’s not for nothing that AKIT started all this mess, right?).