Why it is pointless to write forecasts

Now in various media and even on Habré a large number of forecasts are published about the rapid development of robotics, unmanned vehicles and alternative energy. People are often overly optimistic, and expect a jerk. I suggest to look that predicted on Habré, and what the present was seen in the recent past.

Visualization 2019 (2009) link

In this video 10 years ago, we see changing price tags, newspapers with electronic ink. What exactly guessed in the video is the fact that in 2019 the car will remain on Win XP
In the comments to this article Vokabre suggested that by 2015 there will be a 3d ad.

Forecast: 5 innovations in the next 5 years (2011) link

This article is projected for 2016. Brief forecast:

• Energy from the environment
• Mind reading
• No spam
• No passwords
• The rise of mobile technology

Of all the above, only the last forecast came true.

The robotics revolution begins! (2009) link

The International Federation of Robotics has analyzed and concluded that the robotics industry will make great progress starting in 2010 and will grow to a market valued at $ 500 billion by 2020.

However, now the market for robotics is estimated at 40 billion dollars

A study published in the scientific journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change says that by 2020 about 40% of the world's armed forces will consist of various kinds of robotic mechanisms, besides, researchers talk about the potential development of such an industry as robotic prosthetics and implantation.

In fact, military robotics is massively used only in unmanned aircraft
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Five innovations of the future according to the main astrologer IBM (2011) link

Key points:

• 3D photos and videos
• Self-charging battery
• Utilization of computer heat (come true)
• Traffic forecasting (come true)
• Association of information flows (Internet of things)

Raymond Kurzweil's Predictions (2011) link

2010
Phones reproduce three-dimensional holographic image of the interlocutor

2014
The energy produced by solar panels becomes cheaper than that obtained by burning petroleum products. Household cleaning robots will be widespread.

2017
As a material object, the computer in the modern sense gives way to the omnipresent compact devices, built into furniture, sewn into clothes, etc.

2018
A computer with a memory of 10 ^ 13 bits (the approximate memory size of the human brain) costs about $ 1000 (come true)

2019
The keyboard dies off; programs that recognize and synthesize speech, allow the computer to conduct a dialogue with the user. Three-dimensional images are projected directly onto the retina, cell phones are sewn into clothing and broadcast the sound directly to the subscriber’s eardrums. Deaf wear glasses, on the inner surface of which the decoding of the speech of others is displayed. The advertising industry is mastering the technology of delivering personal messages that will be visible only to one recipient.

2020
Single world government.

The situation with IPv4 (2011) link

This article described the status of IPv4 in 2011. But there is one forecast

My personal forecast is that in 2020 at least one third of the sites will still be IPv4 compliant, although 99% will have IPv6

According to Google statistics for October 2018, IPv6 was about 25% in network traffic. In Russia, commercial use by telecom operators is small (no more than 1% of traffic). The number of sites running IPv6 op can be counted on the fingers.

Quantum computer as the next step in the development of IT (2012) link

For example, according to forecasts of futurologists from Cisco Systems, a quantum computer should appear by mid-2020; TechCast futurologists predict that the ubiquity of quantum computers will begin around 2022.

For 2019, quantum computers are still used for research and have no real commercial use.

Robotics development forecast from RoboHunter (2015) link

• Robots will perform operations in 2018
• Robots will perform 50% of work in agriculture 2020
• Every home will have a robot servant 2020

Robotics development forecast from RoboHunter (2013)

link

According to the forecasts of the researcher of 3D printing Terry Walters, by 2020 the share of finished products in this market will be equal to the share of prototypes. Thus, the technology has already proved its uniqueness and exceptional advantages, supported by examples of the practice of leading designers and designers.

By 2019, 3D printers remained the lot of prototyping, or small-scale production. The biggest achievement in this area is the Electron booster, which is printed on a 3D printer.

Atlas of new professions (2014) link

This article offered the following professions:

• System biotechnology
• System biotechnology
• City farmer.
• Urban Environmentalist
• Biopharmacologist
• GMO agronomist
• IT Medic
• Genetic consultant.
• Medical Robot Operator
• IT geneticist
• Network doctor
• Space Engineer

And finally, the forecast for 2017 from 1968. The truth is not about IT.