Everything will go according to plan
After the collapse of the USSR, it was considered to be “the default”, that a planned economy is a completely unviable thing, and only the “invisible hand of the market” has the right to exist. And here is the blockchain - in this article.
In fact, the collapse of the socialist project was the result of a combination of various factors, but one of them, undoubtedly, was the gradual loss by the political leadership of the country of controllability of the then existing economic system. Over the years, planning became less and less adequate to reality, distortions accumulated in statistical data, and so-called “annotations” took on a massive character, when frankly false information about the state of affairs in a particular sector of the economy came up the chain.
As a result, any further planning was initially totally inadequate to the actual state of affairs and the real needs of the country. As a result, at one point, the economy is not something that has stalled, it has started to openly go crazy. In combination with the collapse in oil prices, which was a consequence of the energy crisis of the 1970s, and some other factors, the socialist project is finally and finished.
For a while, planned economics as a concept was considered by most economists to be completely unviable, especially since the world was in high spirits, which was perfectly reflected in its, to put it mildly, unintelligent book “The End of History and the Last Man” (eng. Last Man) Francis Fukuyama. Say, everything, social experiments have ended, now until the end of time there will be only varieties of capitalism of varying degrees of liberality, thank you all, everyone is free. True, it quickly turned out that this is a heavy delirium of the sick soul, and the most interesting is just beginning. However, the written admission that he does not understand anything in what is happening, translated into many languages and published in huge editions, does not prevent this citizen from being considered as a specialist, analyst and intelligent person.
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“Socialism Should Return”, F.Fukuyama in an interview with New Statesman, October 2018
Analyzing the reasons for the degradation of the economic system of the socialist countries, most experts agree that if you try to describe this multicomponent phenomenon with a couple of words, you will get something like “problems with the speed and quality of feedback, the inability to control the distortion of key parameters”. Many papers pointed out that if it were not for the neglect of the possibilities of automating the analysis of statistical data, the controllability of the system could have been enhanced already then. But cybernetics in the USSR was not held in high esteem.
There is some irony in the fact that the concept of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) arose simultaneously with the collapse of the USSR. Gartner analyst Lee Wiley in 1990 predicted the emergence of scalable software systems designed to manage human resources, assets and financial management, focused on continuous balancing and optimization of enterprise resources. As I looked into the water: now it’s impossible to imagine a large structure that is managed without using one or another ERP, and the automation level is growing exponentially, and this process will accelerate even more in the near future simultaneously with the introduction of artificial intelligence elements and probabilistic mechanisms into ERP analysis.
Conceptually, ERP for a corporation is not very different from a similar complex for the whole country. As a matter of fact, the development of such systems is actively being conducted all over the world, individual elements of such solutions are being fully implemented in the most diverse areas of economic activity of states. While the bulk of automation goes across sectors, but the full integration of all state information circuits - from public services to the Plato system and the Unified State Automated Information System - is only a matter of time.
At the same time, a technology emerged that makes it almost possible to guarantee with almost one hundred percent that all the data that will be stored in such a system is valid - blockchain. At the same time, nothing prevents a single ecosystem from aggregating all data related to the functioning of the state to produce an arbitrary number of independent blockchain-subsystems that will output information about what is happening in real time, and the data will be subject to arbitrary complexity to analysis and stratification -So at the time of their occurrence.
The possibilities that State Resource Planning will give to the leadership of the state are difficult to overestimate. Leaving out the part of it that is about citizens (this is what is being implemented in China) and focusing on its applied application in relation to the economy, it becomes quite clear: after accumulating a sufficient amount of guaranteed reliable statistics, it is possible to get forecasts of such a quality level that it is possible to try to take some industry and make it planned. And then another.
SenseTime is the world's largest AI startup (in September 2018, it closed round D for $ 1 billion). He is already working in China, using video cameras to recognize faces and can assign a social rating. Just like in the third season of the "Black Mirror"
After the entire economy becomes digital, and the initial period of confusion associated with the standardization of the information collected and the debugging of the analysis algorithms ends, the management of the digitized country will begin optimizing the economic processes. And, unlike its predecessors, it will be almost 100% likely to know what steps will lead to what results.
The use of this tool does not imply an immediate change of the socio-economic formation, but this is not required: the formation will successfully cope with this itself. Digitizing the capitalist economy is a fundamental process, and it would be a mistake to assume that “digital technologies + capitalism” will yield “digital capitalism” at the output. So far it is completely incomprehensible how it will look, but robotization, the possibility of total control of absolutely all social transactions, forecasting economic and political processes with a quality close to one, and, apparently, the start of applied transhumanization in a few decades will turn our world into something very - very strange. The name of this upcoming socio-economic formation has not yet been thought up.
And, by the way, in principle, it is time to start thinking about it.
In fact, the collapse of the socialist project was the result of a combination of various factors, but one of them, undoubtedly, was the gradual loss by the political leadership of the country of controllability of the then existing economic system. Over the years, planning became less and less adequate to reality, distortions accumulated in statistical data, and so-called “annotations” took on a massive character, when frankly false information about the state of affairs in a particular sector of the economy came up the chain.
As a result, any further planning was initially totally inadequate to the actual state of affairs and the real needs of the country. As a result, at one point, the economy is not something that has stalled, it has started to openly go crazy. In combination with the collapse in oil prices, which was a consequence of the energy crisis of the 1970s, and some other factors, the socialist project is finally and finished.
For a while, planned economics as a concept was considered by most economists to be completely unviable, especially since the world was in high spirits, which was perfectly reflected in its, to put it mildly, unintelligent book “The End of History and the Last Man” (eng. Last Man) Francis Fukuyama. Say, everything, social experiments have ended, now until the end of time there will be only varieties of capitalism of varying degrees of liberality, thank you all, everyone is free. True, it quickly turned out that this is a heavy delirium of the sick soul, and the most interesting is just beginning. However, the written admission that he does not understand anything in what is happening, translated into many languages and published in huge editions, does not prevent this citizen from being considered as a specialist, analyst and intelligent person.
')
“Socialism Should Return”, F.Fukuyama in an interview with New Statesman, October 2018
Analyzing the reasons for the degradation of the economic system of the socialist countries, most experts agree that if you try to describe this multicomponent phenomenon with a couple of words, you will get something like “problems with the speed and quality of feedback, the inability to control the distortion of key parameters”. Many papers pointed out that if it were not for the neglect of the possibilities of automating the analysis of statistical data, the controllability of the system could have been enhanced already then. But cybernetics in the USSR was not held in high esteem.
There is some irony in the fact that the concept of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) arose simultaneously with the collapse of the USSR. Gartner analyst Lee Wiley in 1990 predicted the emergence of scalable software systems designed to manage human resources, assets and financial management, focused on continuous balancing and optimization of enterprise resources. As I looked into the water: now it’s impossible to imagine a large structure that is managed without using one or another ERP, and the automation level is growing exponentially, and this process will accelerate even more in the near future simultaneously with the introduction of artificial intelligence elements and probabilistic mechanisms into ERP analysis.
Conceptually, ERP for a corporation is not very different from a similar complex for the whole country. As a matter of fact, the development of such systems is actively being conducted all over the world, individual elements of such solutions are being fully implemented in the most diverse areas of economic activity of states. While the bulk of automation goes across sectors, but the full integration of all state information circuits - from public services to the Plato system and the Unified State Automated Information System - is only a matter of time.
At the same time, a technology emerged that makes it almost possible to guarantee with almost one hundred percent that all the data that will be stored in such a system is valid - blockchain. At the same time, nothing prevents a single ecosystem from aggregating all data related to the functioning of the state to produce an arbitrary number of independent blockchain-subsystems that will output information about what is happening in real time, and the data will be subject to arbitrary complexity to analysis and stratification -So at the time of their occurrence.
The possibilities that State Resource Planning will give to the leadership of the state are difficult to overestimate. Leaving out the part of it that is about citizens (this is what is being implemented in China) and focusing on its applied application in relation to the economy, it becomes quite clear: after accumulating a sufficient amount of guaranteed reliable statistics, it is possible to get forecasts of such a quality level that it is possible to try to take some industry and make it planned. And then another.
SenseTime is the world's largest AI startup (in September 2018, it closed round D for $ 1 billion). He is already working in China, using video cameras to recognize faces and can assign a social rating. Just like in the third season of the "Black Mirror"
After the entire economy becomes digital, and the initial period of confusion associated with the standardization of the information collected and the debugging of the analysis algorithms ends, the management of the digitized country will begin optimizing the economic processes. And, unlike its predecessors, it will be almost 100% likely to know what steps will lead to what results.
The use of this tool does not imply an immediate change of the socio-economic formation, but this is not required: the formation will successfully cope with this itself. Digitizing the capitalist economy is a fundamental process, and it would be a mistake to assume that “digital technologies + capitalism” will yield “digital capitalism” at the output. So far it is completely incomprehensible how it will look, but robotization, the possibility of total control of absolutely all social transactions, forecasting economic and political processes with a quality close to one, and, apparently, the start of applied transhumanization in a few decades will turn our world into something very - very strange. The name of this upcoming socio-economic formation has not yet been thought up.
And, by the way, in principle, it is time to start thinking about it.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/447718/
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