Web 2.0 site statistics are constantly exaggerated.
More recently, experts from a serious American analytical company have forecast that in a few years the cost of the MySpace social network will rise to $ 10-20 billion . Why do investors believe in such valuations? Perhaps because the audience of this site is exaggerated.
For example, in early August, a significant event took place on MySpace: a 100 million account was registered. But in the comments to this news, the words about the mythical “100 million users” appeared everywhere. But this is absurd. Anyone who understands such things a little bit, it is clear that the number of accounts and the number of users are far from the same. The first is much more than another for many reasons: many registered users have not visited the site for a long time, while others have decided to register under a different name.
MySpace is a social network with a fairly high “staff turnover”. Therefore, here the number of active users is much less than 100 million. The question is: how much smaller is it. If you examine a particular sample of ID numbers in succession, even approximate studies show that 17% of identifiers are deleted from the system, 31% of the accounts have not logged in even once since their creation, and another 18% of users visited the site relatively long ago. If you take only the audience for the last week, then it is only 34% of the total number of accounts. If you take into account the monthly audience, this percentage increases to 43%. In other words, in the case of MySpace out of 100 million accounts, only 34-43 million are active. This means that the figures on the number of users in the press are exaggerated 2.5-3 times.
Similar exaggerations with statistics are also characteristic of the second “phenomenon” of Web 2.0, a site with amateur YouTube video. Only here statistics of video hits are made . Very often, the authors themselves do this in order to raise their video to the list of the most popular ones and thereby increase its real popularity.
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The owners of Web 2.0 sites probably know the true state of affairs, but for obvious reasons they prefer to use inflated numbers. When it comes to billions of dollars, attendance numbers take on magical importance.
When Skype owners prepared a business for sale, they also constantly talked about the number of downloads of their program from the site, and then about the number of registered users, but not about the number of active users. The result is known. As you know, Skype was sold for $ 2.3 billion.
For example, in early August, a significant event took place on MySpace: a 100 million account was registered. But in the comments to this news, the words about the mythical “100 million users” appeared everywhere. But this is absurd. Anyone who understands such things a little bit, it is clear that the number of accounts and the number of users are far from the same. The first is much more than another for many reasons: many registered users have not visited the site for a long time, while others have decided to register under a different name.
MySpace is a social network with a fairly high “staff turnover”. Therefore, here the number of active users is much less than 100 million. The question is: how much smaller is it. If you examine a particular sample of ID numbers in succession, even approximate studies show that 17% of identifiers are deleted from the system, 31% of the accounts have not logged in even once since their creation, and another 18% of users visited the site relatively long ago. If you take only the audience for the last week, then it is only 34% of the total number of accounts. If you take into account the monthly audience, this percentage increases to 43%. In other words, in the case of MySpace out of 100 million accounts, only 34-43 million are active. This means that the figures on the number of users in the press are exaggerated 2.5-3 times.
Similar exaggerations with statistics are also characteristic of the second “phenomenon” of Web 2.0, a site with amateur YouTube video. Only here statistics of video hits are made . Very often, the authors themselves do this in order to raise their video to the list of the most popular ones and thereby increase its real popularity.
')
The owners of Web 2.0 sites probably know the true state of affairs, but for obvious reasons they prefer to use inflated numbers. When it comes to billions of dollars, attendance numbers take on magical importance.
When Skype owners prepared a business for sale, they also constantly talked about the number of downloads of their program from the site, and then about the number of registered users, but not about the number of active users. The result is known. As you know, Skype was sold for $ 2.3 billion.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/4458/
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