4K: evolution or marketing?

Is 4K to become the television standard, or will it remain a privilege available to units? What awaits providers that run UHD service? In the report of analysts of the magazine BROADVISION you will find the answer to these and other questions.

At first glance it may seem that the quality of the television picture directly depends on the quantity: the more pixels per square inch, the better. For confirmation, you don’t need to go far: remember how enthusiastically the audience accepted the HD and FullHD formats.

However, in the case of 4K, opinions diverge: some consider it only a marketing ploy, which hardly improves the user experience; others boldly call the evolution of the media industry.

An attempt by manufacturers to keep up with the growing demand for ultra-high-definition TV has already entailed not only the huge choice of 4K set-top boxes and televisions, but also the emergence of new standards for data compression and transmission, as well as 4K-content production and storage technologies.
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Is the 4K format to become a new technological breakthrough, or will it be fixed in the minds of users as an attempt to force the viewer to buy a TV more expensive? Let's see what the facts and numbers say.

4K TVs: the hit of the coming years

4K TVs are undoubtedly the brightest star in the 4K sky. They are most interested in users and the press. According to OVUM forecasts, the popularity of UHD-TV will only grow. By 2020, the number of ultra-high-definition televisions worldwide will exceed 540 million - an increase of almost ten times compared with 2015.



IHS and Strategy Analytics predicts that already this year the vast majority of large-screen diagonal screens (50 inches and above) will support 4K. A bit later, the format will take root in more miniature devices.

This will lead to the fact that by 2020, every fourth family in the world will become the owner of a new UHD TV. Ahead of the rest of the world will be the North American market, where 4K penetration will exceed 45%. The West European region is in second place, the last in this race will be the market of Africa and the Middle East.



If we talk about individual countries, then the fastest 4K-TV conquer Japan. According to the Mitsubishi Research Institute, by 2020, half of Japanese families will have UHD TVs.

The real heavyweights on the market for 4K TV manufacturers will be China and South Korea. The largest UHD display factories operate in these countries. The main exporter in this pair will be South Korea, because Chinese manufacturers sell most of the products domestically.

4K set-top boxes: solid market share

Four-fold growth expects the market of set-top boxes. By 2020, they will make up a quarter of all 4K devices sold.

Sales of UHD consoles are growing by 10 million units per year, it is planned that by 2020 more than 50 million of these devices will be sold.

According to OVUM, by 2020, 4K consoles will be installed in more than 225 million homes across the globe. Consume UHD-content through the console will be 80 million viewers from North America and 65 million viewers from Europe and Asia.

Market services: in the role of catching up

Sales of 4K TVs and set-top boxes are growing steadily. However, their owners have already managed to face a significant problem: they have nothing to watch. There are several reasons for this:

• Technological: the production of 4K content is complex and expensive, despite the fact that content in FullHD is still popular and pays well.
• Logistic: not all homes have high-speed Internet.
• Economic: users do not want to buy a subscription, because it is quite expensive, and the choice of content is limited.

Despite all the difficulties, this problem will be solved in the near future. The media industry has already encountered a similar situation when the FullHD format appears. The owners of the then new devices had to wait several years before they had enough content to view.

A growing selection of videos in UHD, lower prices for TVs, 4K-set-top boxes and subscriptions will steadily lead to an explosive increase in the number of users. Most of them will be in the middle and upper classes living in the North American, Pacific and Western European regions.

In 2021, a greater number of subscribers will fall on cable, satellite and IPTV services. Essential TV, with a few exceptions, will not be able to offer viewers a UHD resolution.

4K Internet TV

4K-IPTV

Despite the fact that IPTV services still have fewer subscribers than their cable and satellite competitors, IPTV providers will be able to earn more from each viewer separately. The main reason for the spread of profits is that IPTV-providers quickly introduce new popular functions into their services, which attracts the most solvent users.



According to OVUM forecasts, by 2021 the number of subscribers to IPTV services with 4K will exceed 10 million. This is more than 20-fold increase compared to 450 thousand in 2017. Most of all, television viewers from Western Europe will connect to such services: in 2021, the number of subscribers in this region will be over 3 million. They will bring operators $ 1.2 billion in revenue, which is almost half of the global revenue.



4K-OTT
According to Juniper Research, in the next 5 years, OTT services that provide access to 4K content will be particularly popular. According to forecasts, by 2021 the number of unique consumers of “over the top” -content in 4K will reach 190 million, and the income of services will exceed $ 5 billion.

Televisions will remain the main user device for viewing 4K-OTT content, however, the widespread adoption of multi-screen technology will make UHD content available on smartphones, tablets and desktops.

Summing up

We can safely say that 4K content will not be long in coming, and its popularity will only grow. But let's consider the main factors that influence the speed of technology implementation:

Growth factors.

• The demand for high-end electronics.
• The emergence of new UHD channels and services.
• Cheaper 4K equipment.
• Development of compression algorithms and data transmission technologies.

Deterrent factors.

• While UHD-equipment is still not affordable for the majority of the population.
• Since the market is just emerging, not all investors risk investing in it.
• Creating 4K content costs several times more than creating FullHD.
• The network infrastructure required for 4K video transmission is not developed.
• Residents of remote or small communities do not have access to high-speed Internet, 4K-content will not be available to them for a long time.

Already, operators have a difficult choice: to create their own 4K service, while there is no competition, and demand is steadily growing; or focus on FullHD until the networks of their viewers are ready for 4K broadcasting.

Quality picture is not enough to win the love of users. Content should be interesting. This is confirmed by the shows, which were filmed on the camera of the smartphone, but were able to win millions of audiences.