The crisis in Russia: links in one chain
The crisis in the Russian economy has been brewing for a long time. In many of its industries, there was an “overheating”, analysts foreshadowed it, starting from 2007, positioning it as a “long overdue and very global problem”, the peak of which is now expected by the summer of 2009.
Obviously, any predictions should be based on facts. And they are such that the crisis also acquires the features of a social one, because the incomes of the population and the consumption of goods are declining, unemployment is projected to increase.
There are problems with food and medicine, the imports of which in Russia reach 40% and 80%, respectively. The growth of world prices for these categories of goods will lead to the expenditures of foreign exchange reserves, the reduction of social programs, the transition to a state of emergency economy.
Thus, there are “crises in crisis” that are caused by interconnected links of the market and social processes. The trust disappears , on which many successful “economic chains” have been built, and therefore they break. The once stable links are torn, the links leave each other for survival, there is a notorious "domino" effect, with its usual panic, in which multiple "bubbles" come to light and burst.
What is happening now in numerous enterprises? What is being done to overcome the crisis? What is the situation in the markets?
')
It can be seen that many have a hard time, different positions are taken: active and “waiting”, someone is looking for new ideas and solutions, someone is afraid, someone no longer wants to work. Definitely always that in any case the strongest will survive, who managed to foresee the most important.
Labor market
There are opinions that the ground is being prepared for mass layoffs. A more optimistic forecast is a reduction of up to 10% of the staff of Russian companies.
In any case, in free flight there will be a mass of “office workers” who will have to retrain and get another qualification.
In the media, you can even meet in a certain way the words of gratitude: "thanks to the crisis - it blows the foam from swollen states." The thesis is not unreasonable, but also disappointing.
With vacancies, the situation worsens daily, it can be seen for example on hh.ru - “72768 vacancies, 2421114 resumes”. It is obvious that now companies are trying not to hire staff. Previously, headhunters were looking for valuable personnel, and now they think how to fire them without serious consequences.
For example, it is known that the growth in the number of resumes of marketers in the labor market exceeded all reasonable expectations. Apparently, the situation is such that companies lay off employees who occupied “trendy marketing” positions, without taking into account the thesis that during a crisis one cannot save money on marketing and advertising.
However, it should be recognized that such layoffs during the current crisis are inevitable. Despite hopes in popular business literature about personnel as the main value, its auxiliary and service parts, marketing and advertising services become the “first victims”. Next, the queue can reach other "ineffective" and "unwanted" employees.
Well, if this does not allow reducing costs to the proper level, then middle and possibly top managers will be offered a little “down on the stairs” and who do not like it will show up at the door.
And again the “chain” and its social component. A decrease in the number of employees and a decrease in payroll funds definitely lead to a decrease in the income of the Pension Fund. Enterprises simply reduce the amount of deductions.
Against the background of a difficult demographic situation, a decrease in the number of economically active population, the situation is clearly not encouraging. The already meager pensions of our old people can expect delays in payment. And there can be no talk of any noticeable increase in them yet.
Now it is a little about those who for the present pays in the Pension fund. A lot of people on the wave of actively promoted by the media “boom” of consumption-crediting got used to live as they say “beyond their means”, as a result of which they “will get” the most. The old truth was forgotten that loans are bad because they simply have to be given away, and even with predatory interest, closed effective rates and conditions cleverly hidden in credit contracts in the form of "asterisks" and "small print lines."
Being on such a “wave”, a successful manager, who is also a member of the bubble “bubble”, will suffer more with a salary of 100 thousand rubles than with the same one, but with a salary of 20 thousand rubles. It is clear that the fall of the first will be much more painful - the failure of a mortgage loan, the refusal to buy a prestigious car (sales in car dealerships fall - give less and take on credit), deprivation of rest, no less than in the Seychelles. And the spheres and branches connected with this “along the chain” will feel this on themselves.
Production area
Mechanical engineering, metallurgy, metalworking. In these industries
various types of production are reduced, energy consumption is significantly reduced, prices for metals and other strategically important products are falling, there is a need to optimize costs and calculating savings on everything.
There are signals about downtime. Accordingly, the work collectives either dissolve or go on forced leave. Those who worked on the state order, it is particularly difficult.
The situation is worsening with suppliers of industrial equipment. The invoices for a long time remain without payment. The number of new orders decreases markedly. One of the reasons is that buyers used to arrange equipment for leasing and on credit. It is clear that during the crisis these operations lose their relevance.
Advertising market
Forecast: for some time, advertising will be afloat, because for those from whom the goods are purchased, advertising budgets are paid, it is necessary to sell it all anyway. Even apparently with discounts, as turnover is clearly not enough. Then there will be a recession. On the streets of the cities it was noticed that advertising space (on the walls of houses, stretch marks) was starting to become empty. On popular roadside billboards you can see ads only large companies.
Advertising agencies are also forced to cut staff, because customers are beginning to leave, and those who remain will reduce advertising budgets.
However, it should be noted that against the background of such an advertising recession, its position will be held and even increased by advertising on the Internet, as a simple, understandable and effective marketing tool. Here, context takes the first place, and media advertising takes the second place. Will maintain its niche and search engine optimization (SEO), supporting an army of freelancers and profile companies.
Tourist market
Briefly: here the autumn of 2008 shows a large decrease in the number of tourists, and in some areas where at least some activity was observed, there are simply no customers. Again there is a gap in the “chain” and sociality of the problem. Managers who count office hours do not have time to rest and travel. Tours on credit in our banks also become irrelevant.
Tour operators and agencies at different levels will be forced to either cut salaries, or simply dismiss people who are unemployed.
Banking
Russian banks in their time chose the path of development through cheap foreign borrowing, thereby increasing their debts.
Now they are looking for salvation in the measures being developed by the Government to support the banking sector, the essence of which is in huge investments (up to two thirds of the annual budget) from the funds of the reserve and national wealth and the use of funds from the budget surplus.
However, the effectiveness of these measures is questionable. In a similar interpretation, these injections may not reach the real sectors of the economy, and, moreover, stimulate corruption, because these astronomical sums are distributed by state officials.
Now the banks have started a wave of raising rates on various types of loans and stricter requirements for borrowers. Many banks leave the mortgage market.
Thus, it is clear that the financial system of Russia, unfortunately, developed in a conscious and constant separation from the movement of the real sectors of the economy.
Concluding, it should be noted that most of the existing forecasts suggest that the consequences of the ongoing processes will be quite difficult and the way out of the crisis will be more difficult than the exit from the previous one. It is only worth mentioning that the burden of foreign debt of Russian companies to foreign creditors amounts to over five hundred fifty billion dollars, as it becomes clear that this amount “pulls” on all Russia's gold and currency reserves.
And the last. the opinion that the crisis will only affect the financial sector and the so-called “middle class” seems to be erroneous. All processes occurring in the economy are closely interrelated. And the main difficulties caused by the current crisis await us ahead.
Obviously, any predictions should be based on facts. And they are such that the crisis also acquires the features of a social one, because the incomes of the population and the consumption of goods are declining, unemployment is projected to increase.
There are problems with food and medicine, the imports of which in Russia reach 40% and 80%, respectively. The growth of world prices for these categories of goods will lead to the expenditures of foreign exchange reserves, the reduction of social programs, the transition to a state of emergency economy.
Thus, there are “crises in crisis” that are caused by interconnected links of the market and social processes. The trust disappears , on which many successful “economic chains” have been built, and therefore they break. The once stable links are torn, the links leave each other for survival, there is a notorious "domino" effect, with its usual panic, in which multiple "bubbles" come to light and burst.
What is happening now in numerous enterprises? What is being done to overcome the crisis? What is the situation in the markets?
')
It can be seen that many have a hard time, different positions are taken: active and “waiting”, someone is looking for new ideas and solutions, someone is afraid, someone no longer wants to work. Definitely always that in any case the strongest will survive, who managed to foresee the most important.
Labor market
There are opinions that the ground is being prepared for mass layoffs. A more optimistic forecast is a reduction of up to 10% of the staff of Russian companies.
In any case, in free flight there will be a mass of “office workers” who will have to retrain and get another qualification.
In the media, you can even meet in a certain way the words of gratitude: "thanks to the crisis - it blows the foam from swollen states." The thesis is not unreasonable, but also disappointing.
With vacancies, the situation worsens daily, it can be seen for example on hh.ru - “72768 vacancies, 2421114 resumes”. It is obvious that now companies are trying not to hire staff. Previously, headhunters were looking for valuable personnel, and now they think how to fire them without serious consequences.
For example, it is known that the growth in the number of resumes of marketers in the labor market exceeded all reasonable expectations. Apparently, the situation is such that companies lay off employees who occupied “trendy marketing” positions, without taking into account the thesis that during a crisis one cannot save money on marketing and advertising.
However, it should be recognized that such layoffs during the current crisis are inevitable. Despite hopes in popular business literature about personnel as the main value, its auxiliary and service parts, marketing and advertising services become the “first victims”. Next, the queue can reach other "ineffective" and "unwanted" employees.
Well, if this does not allow reducing costs to the proper level, then middle and possibly top managers will be offered a little “down on the stairs” and who do not like it will show up at the door.
And again the “chain” and its social component. A decrease in the number of employees and a decrease in payroll funds definitely lead to a decrease in the income of the Pension Fund. Enterprises simply reduce the amount of deductions.
Against the background of a difficult demographic situation, a decrease in the number of economically active population, the situation is clearly not encouraging. The already meager pensions of our old people can expect delays in payment. And there can be no talk of any noticeable increase in them yet.
Now it is a little about those who for the present pays in the Pension fund. A lot of people on the wave of actively promoted by the media “boom” of consumption-crediting got used to live as they say “beyond their means”, as a result of which they “will get” the most. The old truth was forgotten that loans are bad because they simply have to be given away, and even with predatory interest, closed effective rates and conditions cleverly hidden in credit contracts in the form of "asterisks" and "small print lines."
Being on such a “wave”, a successful manager, who is also a member of the bubble “bubble”, will suffer more with a salary of 100 thousand rubles than with the same one, but with a salary of 20 thousand rubles. It is clear that the fall of the first will be much more painful - the failure of a mortgage loan, the refusal to buy a prestigious car (sales in car dealerships fall - give less and take on credit), deprivation of rest, no less than in the Seychelles. And the spheres and branches connected with this “along the chain” will feel this on themselves.
Production area
Mechanical engineering, metallurgy, metalworking. In these industries
various types of production are reduced, energy consumption is significantly reduced, prices for metals and other strategically important products are falling, there is a need to optimize costs and calculating savings on everything.
There are signals about downtime. Accordingly, the work collectives either dissolve or go on forced leave. Those who worked on the state order, it is particularly difficult.
The situation is worsening with suppliers of industrial equipment. The invoices for a long time remain without payment. The number of new orders decreases markedly. One of the reasons is that buyers used to arrange equipment for leasing and on credit. It is clear that during the crisis these operations lose their relevance.
Advertising market
Forecast: for some time, advertising will be afloat, because for those from whom the goods are purchased, advertising budgets are paid, it is necessary to sell it all anyway. Even apparently with discounts, as turnover is clearly not enough. Then there will be a recession. On the streets of the cities it was noticed that advertising space (on the walls of houses, stretch marks) was starting to become empty. On popular roadside billboards you can see ads only large companies.
Advertising agencies are also forced to cut staff, because customers are beginning to leave, and those who remain will reduce advertising budgets.
However, it should be noted that against the background of such an advertising recession, its position will be held and even increased by advertising on the Internet, as a simple, understandable and effective marketing tool. Here, context takes the first place, and media advertising takes the second place. Will maintain its niche and search engine optimization (SEO), supporting an army of freelancers and profile companies.
Tourist market
Briefly: here the autumn of 2008 shows a large decrease in the number of tourists, and in some areas where at least some activity was observed, there are simply no customers. Again there is a gap in the “chain” and sociality of the problem. Managers who count office hours do not have time to rest and travel. Tours on credit in our banks also become irrelevant.
Tour operators and agencies at different levels will be forced to either cut salaries, or simply dismiss people who are unemployed.
Banking
Russian banks in their time chose the path of development through cheap foreign borrowing, thereby increasing their debts.
Now they are looking for salvation in the measures being developed by the Government to support the banking sector, the essence of which is in huge investments (up to two thirds of the annual budget) from the funds of the reserve and national wealth and the use of funds from the budget surplus.
However, the effectiveness of these measures is questionable. In a similar interpretation, these injections may not reach the real sectors of the economy, and, moreover, stimulate corruption, because these astronomical sums are distributed by state officials.
Now the banks have started a wave of raising rates on various types of loans and stricter requirements for borrowers. Many banks leave the mortgage market.
Thus, it is clear that the financial system of Russia, unfortunately, developed in a conscious and constant separation from the movement of the real sectors of the economy.
Concluding, it should be noted that most of the existing forecasts suggest that the consequences of the ongoing processes will be quite difficult and the way out of the crisis will be more difficult than the exit from the previous one. It is only worth mentioning that the burden of foreign debt of Russian companies to foreign creditors amounts to over five hundred fifty billion dollars, as it becomes clear that this amount “pulls” on all Russia's gold and currency reserves.
And the last. the opinion that the crisis will only affect the financial sector and the so-called “middle class” seems to be erroneous. All processes occurring in the economy are closely interrelated. And the main difficulties caused by the current crisis await us ahead.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/43924/
All Articles