“The outside world can push you to the state of“ Day 2 ”if you don’t become or cannot quickly take on powerful trends. If you are fighting with them, you are probably fighting with the future. Use them and catch a fair wind. ”
- Jeff Bezos
Jeff, what does Day 2 look like ?
I was asked this question at our most recent meeting. I remind people that for several decades we have "Day 1". I worked in a building called “Day 1”, and when I moved to another building I decided to keep this name. I spent a lot of time thinking about it.
“Day 2” is static followed by irrelevance. And behind it - a painful, painful decline. Then death. That is why we always have "Day 1".
Do not hesitate - such a decline will occur as slowly as possible. A certain company can reap the benefits of Day 2 for decades, but in the end the result will be obvious.
The question is, how do we counteract Day 2? What are our tricks and tactics? How to maintain the viability of "Day 1" even in a large organization?
There is no simple answer. But there are many components, paths and traps. I don’t know the answer entirely, but I probably know the particles. Here is the starting package of things needed to protect Day 1: an obsession with customers, a skeptical look at models, a huge desire to accept external trends and high-speed decision making.True customer obsession
There are many ways in which you can build a business. You can be focused on competitors, on a product, on technology, on a business model, and so on. But, in my opinion, obsession with customers is the best way to protect the viability of Day 1.
Why? There are many advantages in the customer-oriented approach, but the biggest thing is this: customers are always beautiful and surprisingly unhappy, even when they say they are happy and that the business is excellent. They want something more even when they themselves do not know about it, and your great desire to please clients will lead you to inventions. No one ever asked us to create Amazon Prime, but as it turned out, everyone wanted this service, and there are many such examples.
“Day 1” requires that you calmly experiment, take failures, plant seeds, protect seedlings, and double it all with customer satisfaction. A culture obsessed by customers creates excellent conditions for this.Do not give in to ready-made models.
As the company begins to grow larger and more complex, there is a tendency to rely on proven models. It can manifest itself in different ways, but it is dangerous, cunning and in the style of "Day 2".
A common example is process as a model. A good process serves you so that you serve customers. But if you are not vigilant enough, the process can become an integral part. This is very common in large organizations. The process becomes a model for the result you want to achieve. You stop following the result and focus on the correctness of the process. You can often hear a young leader defending a bad result with the words: “Well, we just followed the instructions.” A more experienced leader uses this opportunity to research and improve the process. The process can not be by itself. It’s always worth asking: do we own the process or does the process own us? In the company "Day 2" the second option is most possible.
Here is another example: market research and customer surveys can be a model for customers, and this is especially dangerous when you invent and develop products. “55% of beta testers said they like this feature. And this is 47% higher compared to the first survey. ” Such information is difficult to interpret, and it may inadvertently be misleading. ”
Good inventors and designers understand their customers at a deeper level. They take a lot of time and effort to develop this intuition. They study and understand a huge number of stories, and not just the average values from questionnaires. They live by design.
I'm not against beta testing or polls. But you, the owners of the product or service, must understand the customer, have a vision and really love the offer. In this case, beta testing and research will help you find your blind spots. A truly incredible experience with customers begins with the heart, intuition, curiosity, play, courage and taste. Polls do not give you anything like that.Embrace external trends
The outside world can push you into the “Day 2” state if you don’t become or can’t quickly take on powerful trends. If you are fighting with them, you are probably fighting with the future. Use them and catch a fair wind.
These trends are hard not to notice (they talk and write a lot about them), but it is difficult for big companies to accept them. Now we have an obvious trend - machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Over the past decades, computers have largely automated tasks that programmers can describe with the help of clear rules and algorithms. Modern methods of machine learning allow us to work with tasks for which it is much more difficult to describe clear rules.
Amazon has been practicing machine learning for many years. Something to see: our standalone drones for delivering Prime Air; Amazon Go's grocery store, which uses machine vision to eliminate queues at the checkout; and Alexa is our cloud-based AI helper. (No matter how hard we try, we still hardly manage to constantly have Echo stocks in warehouses. This is a high quality problem, but a problem. We are working on it.)
But a lot of machine learning is not obvious. Machine learning manages our demand forecasting algorithms, product search rankings, product and transaction recommendations, merchandising, fraud detection, translation and more; although less noticeable, but most of the work of machine learning will be just that - imperceptible, but improving key operations.
With AWS (Amazon Web Services) cloud platform, we reduce costs and other machine learning and AI barriers so that all organizations and companies can take advantage of advanced technologies.
Using pre-built versions of popular depth learning systems that work according to the P2-computing model (optimized for such a workload), customers are already developing powerful systems in various fields: from early detection of the disease to increased yields. We also made higher level Amazon services more accessible in a convenient form. Amazon Lex (which is inside Alexa), Amazon Polly and Amazon Rekognition eliminate the hard work of recognizing natural language, generating speech and analyzing images. Access to them is provided through a simple API call, which does not require special knowledge in machine learning. Watch out for this area. Further more.Fast decision making
Day 2 companies make really good decisions, but they do it slowly. To preserve the energy and dynamics of Day 1, you must be able to combine high speed and quality in solutions. This is easy for startups, unlike large companies. The Amazon team is committed to supporting high-speed decision making. Speed matters in business, and also makes the atmosphere much more fun. We do not know all the answers, but here are some of our thoughts.
First , never use a universal decision-making process. Many solutions have two sides. For these solutions, you can use a lightweight process. What happens if you make a mistake? I spoke about this in my last year’s address.
Secondly , most decisions should be made, having about 70% of the information you would like to have. If you wait up to 90%, most likely you will be slow. In addition, in any case, you should be able to quickly recognize and correct the wrong decisions. If you can easily correct the direction of the decision, then the errors will not be as costly as you think (but the delay is always expensive).
Third , use the principle of "do not agree, but do." He will save a lot of time. If you have conviction in a certain direction, but there is no unanimous decision, it would be better to say: “Listen, I understand that we have not come to a unanimous decision, but maybe we will take the risk? Do not agree and do? ". At this stage, no one knows the correct answer, so you will surely quickly hear a positive answer.
This does not work unilaterally . If you are a boss, you also need to adhere to this principle. I always disagree, but I do. We recently gave the green light to a TV show from Amazon Studios. I told my team that I’m not sure that it will be interesting, that it will be easy to release and that the business conditions are not very profitable, and that we still have many offers. They had a completely different look, and they wanted to take a chance. I immediately answered them: “I do not agree, but I give the green light and I hope that this series will be the most viewed of all that we have done before.” Imagine how much we would slow the decision-making cycle if the team really had to convince me, and not just gain my trust.
Notice that in this example I did not think: “Well, guys are completely wrong and do not catch the essence, and this is not worth my efforts.” This is the most real difference of opinion, a frank expression of my point of view, a chance for the team to weigh my opinion and go their way. Given that the team has already taken 11 Emmys, 6 Golden Globes and 3 Oscars, I'm glad they let me in the room!
Fourthly , recognize the true problems of inconsistency as early as possible and immediately raise them to a new level. Sometimes teams have different goals and completely different views. They are not consistent. No discussions and no meetings will solve this deep misunderstanding of each other. Without escalation, the default dispute resolution mechanism in this scenario will be exhausted. The final decision is made by one who has higher endurance.
Over the years at Amazon, I have seen many examples of true disagreement. When we invited third-party vendors who had to compete with us directly in our own products, this became especially clear. Many smart Amazon employees simply disagreed with the chosen direction. A big decision led to a bunch of small ones, many of which had to be raised to a higher level of senior management.
“You have completely exhausted me” - this is a terrible decision-making process. It is slow and energy depriving. Much better to raise the question to another level.
So, did you stop on the quality of decision making or did you think about speed? Do world trends fill your sails with a fair wind? Are you a victim of models or models work for you? And, most importantly, do you make your customers happy? You can have the scale and capabilities of a large company, and the spirit and heart of a small one. The choice is yours.
Many thanks to each client for allowing you to provide services, our shareholders for support, and each employee for their hard work, ingenuity and passion.
As always, I enclose a copy of the original letter of 1997. We still have "Day 1".
Respectfully,
Jeff.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/423805/
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