Review of the earthquake prediction system on Youtube channel “Dutchsinse”
Hello! I would like to write a brief overview on the topic, because I did not find any other information on Habré. An American channel is running on Youtube called “Dutchsinse”. In which he uses the system (EARTHQUAKE 3D ENHANCED EDITION), plotting earthquakes on the 3d earth map and analyzes them for the past 7-10 days, he makes a forecast of future earthquakes based on this information. Analysis of his method under the cut.
As far as I was able to understand, the author analyzes two earthquakes that occurred at different times, not far from each other, located along the contact of tectonic plates. Further, taking into account the geometry of tectonic plates in the area of earthquakes, he finds the middle between two earthquakes, in the area of this place, he predicts the next earthquake of approximately the same magnitude as each of the previous ones.
The predicted time to the next earthquake, from 1 to 10 days, depending on the strength and depth of previous earthquakes.
Why he gives such a forecast, he explains on the example of a video of concentric waves.
')
And video of standing waves.
Where two or more magma waves occur due to past earthquakes, a new earthquake occurs (as shown in the concentric wave video). Then standing waves diverge, which, when they encounter waves of other earthquakes on their way, amplify their amplitude (I may be mistaken, but this is how I understood)
The kinetic energy stored in magma from other earthquakes continues to spread along the lines of contact of the tectonic plates until it reaches equilibrium, or collides with another wave. What explains the increased seismic activity on the edges of tectonic plates. The author also shows with concrete examples how the energy diverges and divides when it hits, if one can say so, into the acute angle of another tectonic plate. (Again, as far as I understood it).
The author also affects (I don’t know in all of the videos, but for sure, on August 29, 2018) interaction with volcanoes and the influence of the human factor.
Maybe my translation and explanation somewhere is not entirely correct, I am not an expert in this field. But the fact that the author gives long-term projections and they are confirmed (this can be checked by videos and reviews) makes it possible to study this direction, and it may be possible to develop more accurate models for prediction.
PS Recently there has been a rather strong seismic activity around the entire "Pacific Ring of Fire" a strong and deep earthquake of about 7 balls happened recently in South America, the author suggests that it could cause a stronger earthquake in about the same area, he put plug 1-10 days from the day of the earthquake. There is an opportunity to check the forecast.
Youtube channel
Local earthquake analysis
As far as I was able to understand, the author analyzes two earthquakes that occurred at different times, not far from each other, located along the contact of tectonic plates. Further, taking into account the geometry of tectonic plates in the area of earthquakes, he finds the middle between two earthquakes, in the area of this place, he predicts the next earthquake of approximately the same magnitude as each of the previous ones.
The predicted time to the next earthquake, from 1 to 10 days, depending on the strength and depth of previous earthquakes.
Why he gives such a forecast, he explains on the example of a video of concentric waves.
')
And video of standing waves.
Where two or more magma waves occur due to past earthquakes, a new earthquake occurs (as shown in the concentric wave video). Then standing waves diverge, which, when they encounter waves of other earthquakes on their way, amplify their amplitude (I may be mistaken, but this is how I understood)
Global Earthquake Analysis
The kinetic energy stored in magma from other earthquakes continues to spread along the lines of contact of the tectonic plates until it reaches equilibrium, or collides with another wave. What explains the increased seismic activity on the edges of tectonic plates. The author also shows with concrete examples how the energy diverges and divides when it hits, if one can say so, into the acute angle of another tectonic plate. (Again, as far as I understood it).
The author also affects (I don’t know in all of the videos, but for sure, on August 29, 2018) interaction with volcanoes and the influence of the human factor.
Maybe my translation and explanation somewhere is not entirely correct, I am not an expert in this field. But the fact that the author gives long-term projections and they are confirmed (this can be checked by videos and reviews) makes it possible to study this direction, and it may be possible to develop more accurate models for prediction.
PS Recently there has been a rather strong seismic activity around the entire "Pacific Ring of Fire" a strong and deep earthquake of about 7 balls happened recently in South America, the author suggests that it could cause a stronger earthquake in about the same area, he put plug 1-10 days from the day of the earthquake. There is an opportunity to check the forecast.
Youtube channel
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/421915/
All Articles