Three technological trends that change trade and consumer
Nassim Taleb says: "We create toys, and some of them change the world." We, as manufacturers, sometimes really create toys. After all, the human desire for "fan" is the driver that leads to changes in life. And some things have already changed people's habits. People buy more and more online than 3-5 years ago. They are accustomed to the once "toy" chatbots, and with might and main use virtual fitting rooms. And if earlier sellers of clothes laughed at "silly fantasies", now they are also looking for virtual fitting rooms and open online stores. Because the changing trade infrastructure and ways of shopping. Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence and IoT reshape the trade. We are sure of this - by virtue of experience.
Working with retail, we note that Russian retail is not in a hurry to believe in IoT and in “these are your IT things”. Especially firmly holds grocery retail. Many believe: bread will always be bought, and you only need to monitor the prices of competitors. And if you take the parser program and reduce the monitoring time by 5-10 times? .. It seems that the time has come when you are “fast or dead”. Or you sell bread the old-fashioned way, without asking questions, “Why are sales falling, and where do you get new buyers?” Or you introduce smart technologies and fit into the new reality of consumption. Working in any of the necessary directions, which we discuss below.
In e-commerce is not at all surprised by all sorts of AI-assistants. By 2020, up to 85% of people’s communications with online retail will be based on AI, and advanced global companies are preparing to reduce the number of call and contact centers. People will switch to self-service and communication with robotic assistants . What do the regional network of mini-supermarkets “Crane” do in these conditions? .. Develop digital communications and start communicating with customers in social networks and instant messengers. Get, if you can, virtual assistants.
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Our favorite topic is “voices”. By 2021, the world promises to be 7.5 billion devices with built-in voice assistants , and 1/3 of the Internet search will be carried out with them. Already, “voices” are looking for information, reminding of important events, helping to order a taxi in Uber or coffee in Starbucks. In the Russian reality, the transition to “voice” is a bit more complicated. After all, working with the Russian language is not as easy as with idiomatic English.
The developers of Yandex.Alisa (the first adequate Russian-speaking assistant) are struggling with the problem of “machine speaking” in Russian. And we are engaged in development "from the return". We do not try to learn to speak lively, but learn to hear and process sets of key phrases. By the end of the year, the REDMOND SkyFriend voice assistant will appear, which will read the user's commands. Entering the house, you will say: “Give me some tea” or “Make some coffee”, REDMOND SkyFriend will process the command and send it to the smart teapot for execution.
Previously, Russian fashion gurus laughed at the idea of ​​“virtual fitting rooms” - and now they are engaged in very many, from Amazon (they wrote about it recently on Habré ) to Skelkovo Texel residents. The client needs it - the retail one also needs it; you can't do anything about it!
In the interior design, IKEA was the first to launch a catalog with an AR code : by activating AR, it became possible to see furniture that was not yet purchased in its real interior. Now there are furniture aggregators from various networks and stores that help “try on” it with your interior. You can not believe in the effectiveness of "virtual fitting", but it is still clear: even if a person does not buy the product immediately on the site, he will come to the offline store with a concrete knowledge of what he needs and how much. Buyer and fun, and rationalizes!
Yes, REDMOND put his nose in here: after about a year we intend to present our AR-solution for controlling the smart home (and the equipment in it). We hope that with the help of Microsoft Hololens technology ( AR-glasses ) you can control the equipment without voice and buttons. With a flick, for example. So far, Microsoft Hololens is a little expensive (glasses cost about 300,000 rubles), but the development together with the Singapore-based partner Ready for Sky has already begun. Because the whole group of “virtual-intellectual-voice” developments and technologies is demanded by the user - it means that vendors and manufacturers will have to integrate this into their processes, products or sales.
“Regular retail” is used to daily losses. Wrong calculation of purchases, errors in the calculations of managers = loss in turnover. The miscalculation of the manager in the number of cashiers in the shift = queue at the box office and the loss of customers. Not to mention the theft. It seems that this can only be partially controlled. And the average Russian retailer looks like an unrealizable dream for the Amazon Go store : people collect products, do not stand at the cash register, there is no crowd and security guards. All that is needed, computer vision has recognized, linked to the account and has written off the money. We really like this concept: just a dream of a modern city dweller, affected by social phobia.
The seller is profitable: in addition to minimizing the cost of "manual" service, he can regularly update the balances and reduce the cost of inventory of warehouses by 80-90%! “Computer vision” instead of difficult manual registration, and automation of control instead of hiring retired guards is one of the technologies of the future, which (although not massively) are beginning to be implemented in Russia.
Or, referred to price monitoring. Many grocery chains still do it manually, comparing price lists and putting search queries on an Excel table. One employee of a large regional FMCG network says: “Our management has monitoring like this: the priority products of prime necessity are bread, onions, potatoes, milk, etc. Because any grandmother knows where potatoes are cheaper, there will go. This buyer of whiskey does not have the habit of checking prices, and they can be monitored once a month, not more often. Therefore, when competitors make a promotional price for any non-essential commodity, information about this to managers goes too long. And our "retaliatory price measures" may be late and be meaningless. " If monitoring was automatic and total, then decisions would be made easier and faster. And the whole pricing policy would become more flexible and independent of the human factor. And staff time would be saved!
The founder of Magnit, Sergei Galitsky, said : “If the price of bananas goes down by 2 rubles, we sell them 100 tons more per day”. You just need to know what and when to overestimate. And there are already parsers for automatic, fast and error-free monitoring of competitors' prices. Of course, first of all, the parsing is done on the basis of data from online stores. More difficult with food retail, which does not "throws out" the prices of the entire range on the Internet. But even here, there are already opportunities for semi-automatic collection and processing of information for pricing - as in the domestic Beorg project .
Most likely, for habrovchan such things are obvious, like snow in winter. But for decision makers of retail, it is, alas, often - “an unnecessary waste of money, we will launch the girls themselves, they will take pictures of everything and write out prices from catalogs”. Many of those who make decisions in retail are often people of more age generation. They are hardly mastered in new technologies, because they do not understand how to control all this virtual “diversity”. Nevertheless, the technologies for accounting and monitoring are quite clear and transparent. Here you can count and see the effectiveness almost immediately. Therefore, for example, cinemas have already begun to use computer vision (facial recognition system) - this will help not only to accurately calculate attendance, but also analyze the repertoire and customize the rental of advertising , depending on the type of audience in the hall .
This is the most important trend that determines the spread of all other technologies and "frills". People buy online more and more - a point. According to the latest data, in 2017, 73% of Russians gained access to the Internet. And by 2020, the audience of the Runet will grow to 85% already. It is clear that these 110-120 million people will not only entertain and watch TV shows on the network, but also buy something!
We are following with interest the growth of online sales of food products. Abroad, this market is growing at 25-40% annually, in Russia - a little less. But we have our own "bombs" - such as the capital service "Shefmarket" and the St. Petersburg "Food Party" , which over the past year increased by 2-3 times. It is clear that Moscow and St. Petersburg always "set the tone", but quite obviously, it will be so soon in the regions. Moreover, for us, as developers of kitchen appliances, it is obvious: food delivery services do not compete with restaurants, but with supermarkets. Because the city dweller is still not so rich as to consider going to a restaurant as usual, and he will “go out” there. But to drag on traffic jams to the supermarket is no longer his desire. Why, if you can save money, time and gasoline, and order food or food at home? It seems that Russian retailers are not aware of this trend.
It supports this growth trend of “food delivery” and the fact that kitchen appliances have become much smarter in recent years. She can now much more than before. Russians appreciate it: in terms of the number of units of smart technology per capita, we lead the world . How can you stop coming up with an increasingly intelligent technique? Yes, nothing. In 2018, we will complete the "final and irrevocable" smarts technology, and then ... Your multicooker will be able to send the order to the supermarket for the products you need for the selected recipe. And you will be on the way from work to call either to this supermarket, or to a special point of issue, and pick up your grocery set. Or get a package of products from the courier. And then load everything into the slow cooker and get a ready dinner. And most importantly - no extra purchases in the hungry running around the supermarket after work!
We cooperate with several food technology startups and large networks - to integrate delivery services, trade and capabilities of REDMOND smart appliances. We understand the prospect: smart technology, ordering products, saves both time and money.
Morgan Stanley promises global growth in online sales of consumer goods by 21% by 2020, and retail sales growth by only 4%. It means that sellers who are “not interested in all this” will have a hard time. They will be forced out by the "progressives", the man in the street for joy.
Finally, the last but not the least Various observers and experts argue that both software, components, and development will be cheaper in the next few years. And soon the AI, and AR, and so on will become commonplace. At work to us, manufacturers. And to the joy of ordinary people. What began as a toy changes the world as a whole. Therefore, the sellers of the “old format” will inevitably have to introduce new technologies into their trading processes. And we, for our part, will help them with IoT-development.
Working with retail, we note that Russian retail is not in a hurry to believe in IoT and in “these are your IT things”. Especially firmly holds grocery retail. Many believe: bread will always be bought, and you only need to monitor the prices of competitors. And if you take the parser program and reduce the monitoring time by 5-10 times? .. It seems that the time has come when you are “fast or dead”. Or you sell bread the old-fashioned way, without asking questions, “Why are sales falling, and where do you get new buyers?” Or you introduce smart technologies and fit into the new reality of consumption. Working in any of the necessary directions, which we discuss below.
Trend 1. AI technologies, as well as AR and voice assistants
In e-commerce is not at all surprised by all sorts of AI-assistants. By 2020, up to 85% of people’s communications with online retail will be based on AI, and advanced global companies are preparing to reduce the number of call and contact centers. People will switch to self-service and communication with robotic assistants . What do the regional network of mini-supermarkets “Crane” do in these conditions? .. Develop digital communications and start communicating with customers in social networks and instant messengers. Get, if you can, virtual assistants.
')
Our favorite topic is “voices”. By 2021, the world promises to be 7.5 billion devices with built-in voice assistants , and 1/3 of the Internet search will be carried out with them. Already, “voices” are looking for information, reminding of important events, helping to order a taxi in Uber or coffee in Starbucks. In the Russian reality, the transition to “voice” is a bit more complicated. After all, working with the Russian language is not as easy as with idiomatic English.
The developers of Yandex.Alisa (the first adequate Russian-speaking assistant) are struggling with the problem of “machine speaking” in Russian. And we are engaged in development "from the return". We do not try to learn to speak lively, but learn to hear and process sets of key phrases. By the end of the year, the REDMOND SkyFriend voice assistant will appear, which will read the user's commands. Entering the house, you will say: “Give me some tea” or “Make some coffee”, REDMOND SkyFriend will process the command and send it to the smart teapot for execution.
Previously, Russian fashion gurus laughed at the idea of ​​“virtual fitting rooms” - and now they are engaged in very many, from Amazon (they wrote about it recently on Habré ) to Skelkovo Texel residents. The client needs it - the retail one also needs it; you can't do anything about it!
In the interior design, IKEA was the first to launch a catalog with an AR code : by activating AR, it became possible to see furniture that was not yet purchased in its real interior. Now there are furniture aggregators from various networks and stores that help “try on” it with your interior. You can not believe in the effectiveness of "virtual fitting", but it is still clear: even if a person does not buy the product immediately on the site, he will come to the offline store with a concrete knowledge of what he needs and how much. Buyer and fun, and rationalizes!
Yes, REDMOND put his nose in here: after about a year we intend to present our AR-solution for controlling the smart home (and the equipment in it). We hope that with the help of Microsoft Hololens technology ( AR-glasses ) you can control the equipment without voice and buttons. With a flick, for example. So far, Microsoft Hololens is a little expensive (glasses cost about 300,000 rubles), but the development together with the Singapore-based partner Ready for Sky has already begun. Because the whole group of “virtual-intellectual-voice” developments and technologies is demanded by the user - it means that vendors and manufacturers will have to integrate this into their processes, products or sales.
Trend 2. Accounting, monitoring and computer vision
“Regular retail” is used to daily losses. Wrong calculation of purchases, errors in the calculations of managers = loss in turnover. The miscalculation of the manager in the number of cashiers in the shift = queue at the box office and the loss of customers. Not to mention the theft. It seems that this can only be partially controlled. And the average Russian retailer looks like an unrealizable dream for the Amazon Go store : people collect products, do not stand at the cash register, there is no crowd and security guards. All that is needed, computer vision has recognized, linked to the account and has written off the money. We really like this concept: just a dream of a modern city dweller, affected by social phobia.
The seller is profitable: in addition to minimizing the cost of "manual" service, he can regularly update the balances and reduce the cost of inventory of warehouses by 80-90%! “Computer vision” instead of difficult manual registration, and automation of control instead of hiring retired guards is one of the technologies of the future, which (although not massively) are beginning to be implemented in Russia.
Or, referred to price monitoring. Many grocery chains still do it manually, comparing price lists and putting search queries on an Excel table. One employee of a large regional FMCG network says: “Our management has monitoring like this: the priority products of prime necessity are bread, onions, potatoes, milk, etc. Because any grandmother knows where potatoes are cheaper, there will go. This buyer of whiskey does not have the habit of checking prices, and they can be monitored once a month, not more often. Therefore, when competitors make a promotional price for any non-essential commodity, information about this to managers goes too long. And our "retaliatory price measures" may be late and be meaningless. " If monitoring was automatic and total, then decisions would be made easier and faster. And the whole pricing policy would become more flexible and independent of the human factor. And staff time would be saved!
The founder of Magnit, Sergei Galitsky, said : “If the price of bananas goes down by 2 rubles, we sell them 100 tons more per day”. You just need to know what and when to overestimate. And there are already parsers for automatic, fast and error-free monitoring of competitors' prices. Of course, first of all, the parsing is done on the basis of data from online stores. More difficult with food retail, which does not "throws out" the prices of the entire range on the Internet. But even here, there are already opportunities for semi-automatic collection and processing of information for pricing - as in the domestic Beorg project .
Most likely, for habrovchan such things are obvious, like snow in winter. But for decision makers of retail, it is, alas, often - “an unnecessary waste of money, we will launch the girls themselves, they will take pictures of everything and write out prices from catalogs”. Many of those who make decisions in retail are often people of more age generation. They are hardly mastered in new technologies, because they do not understand how to control all this virtual “diversity”. Nevertheless, the technologies for accounting and monitoring are quite clear and transparent. Here you can count and see the effectiveness almost immediately. Therefore, for example, cinemas have already begun to use computer vision (facial recognition system) - this will help not only to accurately calculate attendance, but also analyze the repertoire and customize the rental of advertising , depending on the type of audience in the hall .
Trend 3. Strengthening online purchases and the growth of the product delivery segment
This is the most important trend that determines the spread of all other technologies and "frills". People buy online more and more - a point. According to the latest data, in 2017, 73% of Russians gained access to the Internet. And by 2020, the audience of the Runet will grow to 85% already. It is clear that these 110-120 million people will not only entertain and watch TV shows on the network, but also buy something!
We are following with interest the growth of online sales of food products. Abroad, this market is growing at 25-40% annually, in Russia - a little less. But we have our own "bombs" - such as the capital service "Shefmarket" and the St. Petersburg "Food Party" , which over the past year increased by 2-3 times. It is clear that Moscow and St. Petersburg always "set the tone", but quite obviously, it will be so soon in the regions. Moreover, for us, as developers of kitchen appliances, it is obvious: food delivery services do not compete with restaurants, but with supermarkets. Because the city dweller is still not so rich as to consider going to a restaurant as usual, and he will “go out” there. But to drag on traffic jams to the supermarket is no longer his desire. Why, if you can save money, time and gasoline, and order food or food at home? It seems that Russian retailers are not aware of this trend.
It supports this growth trend of “food delivery” and the fact that kitchen appliances have become much smarter in recent years. She can now much more than before. Russians appreciate it: in terms of the number of units of smart technology per capita, we lead the world . How can you stop coming up with an increasingly intelligent technique? Yes, nothing. In 2018, we will complete the "final and irrevocable" smarts technology, and then ... Your multicooker will be able to send the order to the supermarket for the products you need for the selected recipe. And you will be on the way from work to call either to this supermarket, or to a special point of issue, and pick up your grocery set. Or get a package of products from the courier. And then load everything into the slow cooker and get a ready dinner. And most importantly - no extra purchases in the hungry running around the supermarket after work!
We cooperate with several food technology startups and large networks - to integrate delivery services, trade and capabilities of REDMOND smart appliances. We understand the prospect: smart technology, ordering products, saves both time and money.
Morgan Stanley promises global growth in online sales of consumer goods by 21% by 2020, and retail sales growth by only 4%. It means that sellers who are “not interested in all this” will have a hard time. They will be forced out by the "progressives", the man in the street for joy.
Finally, the last but not the least Various observers and experts argue that both software, components, and development will be cheaper in the next few years. And soon the AI, and AR, and so on will become commonplace. At work to us, manufacturers. And to the joy of ordinary people. What began as a toy changes the world as a whole. Therefore, the sellers of the “old format” will inevitably have to introduce new technologies into their trading processes. And we, for our part, will help them with IoT-development.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/417529/
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