World financial crisis and Runet
For several days now I feel growing nervousness. It is like radiation, it is not visible, but every second you feel that it is getting a little worse. I decided to share my assumptions with the Habra community. If suddenly, someone wants to speak - I will be glad.
Most likely, most of us have never heard of Lehman Brothers before. Few have abused the word liquidity. Only a few have tried to play Forex or speculate with stocks. But, it seems to me that even to a habr-person far from Wall Street every day it becomes more and more obvious that in one way or another the crisis can affect him too.
What will happen to Runet? Here is a question I would like to discuss.
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Russia has an advantage. No, I’m not even talking about money that can save our economy, I’m talking about time - we have the opportunity to see how it can happen and not make mistakes. Can we? Question…
We look - and our banks raise rates. Loans are harder to get. Banks do not want to risk it. The market is in a fever, which means that people are afraid to invest money, people are afraid to play. Stocks are falling. The amount of funds raised through IPOs on Russian sites over the past few months has decreased by several orders of magnitude compared to the same period last year (Several million against billion - source of Radio FM Business). Companies freeze projects that were funded with money raised.
Begin firing. And the IT industry is no exception. So what awaits us?
Two scenarios of development come to my mind. This is not a forecast, but just thinking out loud.
Option 1. A strong crisis in large IT-companies that put in the name, on the loyalty of investors. Ambitious projects are closing. A series of bankruptcies, takeovers. The crisis in medium and small companies, contractors of large companies. A series of layoffs. Drop in the number of projects. Personnel hunger is replaced by a fall in the level of wages of intellectual labor. People are “bought up” by 2-3 monsters of the industry who had free own funds in time to keep working. I am afraid to think further and so is not sweet.
Option 2. A strong crisis in almost all areas of the economy. Real estate falls in price. Apartment speculators are afraid to buy, and ordinary people do not pull the mortgage at 18%. Investors do not know where to invest money without risk. The bank will not incur, the shares are falling. Companies minimize costs. Reduced number of movements. All this leads to an increase in the popularity of the Web. People carry money to Runet. Initial investments are small, risks are high, but not better at the stock exchange. Unemployed bankers, economists, financiers are looking for work on the Internet and in the Internet business. Runet grows. Programmers are valued even more. Internet advertising, replacing television advertising as more expensive, as companies save on marketing during a crisis.
I thought for a long time which of these options to do first ... Write what you think.
Most likely, most of us have never heard of Lehman Brothers before. Few have abused the word liquidity. Only a few have tried to play Forex or speculate with stocks. But, it seems to me that even to a habr-person far from Wall Street every day it becomes more and more obvious that in one way or another the crisis can affect him too.
What will happen to Runet? Here is a question I would like to discuss.
')
Russia has an advantage. No, I’m not even talking about money that can save our economy, I’m talking about time - we have the opportunity to see how it can happen and not make mistakes. Can we? Question…
We look - and our banks raise rates. Loans are harder to get. Banks do not want to risk it. The market is in a fever, which means that people are afraid to invest money, people are afraid to play. Stocks are falling. The amount of funds raised through IPOs on Russian sites over the past few months has decreased by several orders of magnitude compared to the same period last year (Several million against billion - source of Radio FM Business). Companies freeze projects that were funded with money raised.
Begin firing. And the IT industry is no exception. So what awaits us?
Two scenarios of development come to my mind. This is not a forecast, but just thinking out loud.
Option 1. A strong crisis in large IT-companies that put in the name, on the loyalty of investors. Ambitious projects are closing. A series of bankruptcies, takeovers. The crisis in medium and small companies, contractors of large companies. A series of layoffs. Drop in the number of projects. Personnel hunger is replaced by a fall in the level of wages of intellectual labor. People are “bought up” by 2-3 monsters of the industry who had free own funds in time to keep working. I am afraid to think further and so is not sweet.
Option 2. A strong crisis in almost all areas of the economy. Real estate falls in price. Apartment speculators are afraid to buy, and ordinary people do not pull the mortgage at 18%. Investors do not know where to invest money without risk. The bank will not incur, the shares are falling. Companies minimize costs. Reduced number of movements. All this leads to an increase in the popularity of the Web. People carry money to Runet. Initial investments are small, risks are high, but not better at the stock exchange. Unemployed bankers, economists, financiers are looking for work on the Internet and in the Internet business. Runet grows. Programmers are valued even more. Internet advertising, replacing television advertising as more expensive, as companies save on marketing during a crisis.
I thought for a long time which of these options to do first ... Write what you think.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/41601/
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