The founder
of Kaspersky Lab and the head of antivirus research at this company has
published his own forecast of changes in the antivirus industry that are waiting for us in the coming years.
Evgeny Kaspersky mentions several factors that can influence the situation.
Factor 1. The continuing criminalization of the Internet. The whole logic of the Internet development says that there is a lot of crime in it, and then there will be only more. Proof of this is the doubling of the number of new criminal programs, which occurred in 2005 alone, that is, the level of criminal activity in the Network has doubled in a year. And there are no reasons to reduce such growth rates. By the number of malicious programs that come from different countries, China is the leader, followed by Latin America, then comes Russia and the countries of Eastern Europe.
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Factor 2. The growth of diversity of types and implementations of attacks. Ten years ago (1996), all malicious programs, among which then there were no criminal ones, were only two types: viruses and primitive Trojan programs. Now everything has become much more complicated and diverse:
* network worms;
* a variety of Trojans, including spyware (SpyWare);
* unwanted advertising systems;
* malicious use of legal programs (keyloggers, remote administration systems);
* spam of various directions, from begging to fraud;
* phishing as a separate group of financial fraud;
* network attacks and racketeering;
* others.
Factor 3. Microsoft. Microsoft is going to seriously address security solutions, including anti-virus security. Antivirus industry in shock. Now, Microsoft is launching its own home-based antivirus for home computers, antivirus for workstations (hereinafter), as well as solutions for MS Exchange (based on the multi-core Antigen product from Sybari).
Naturally, the appearance of such a monster will strike at the business of other manufacturers.
According to Evgeny Kaspersky, the landscape of the anti-virus industry is changing and will continue to change for a long time. It is possible that the entry of Microsoft into the security market will be a decisive factor in the change process. Still, there is hope that this event will make the Internet a safer place.