Is any speed limit too small?

When Lieutenant Gary Megg of the Michigan State Police opens the meeting, he sometimes asks, “Who among you has exceeded the speed on this way?”

You may decide that Lieutenant Megg is particularly passionate about his work. He is the one who will pass half a block, only to cross the street in the proper place. The ideal citizen, disgusted obeying the letter of the law. But the essence of the question Megg does not in this.
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“We all exceed the speed, but between the accidents we see as witnesses, it usually takes months,” Lieutenant Megg tells us at a meeting about speed limits. - From this I conclude that most of us are adequate, safe and reasonable drivers. Speeding and road safety have a very weak correlation. ”

Over the past 12 years, Megg has raised the speed limit on nearly 400 stretches of Michigan. Each time, he or his staff hear complaints from local residents who believe that drivers are already driving too fast. But, as Megg and colleagues explain, they are not working to reduce traffic congestion, not under the pressure of a reality in which everyone still drives too fast, and not even a balance between safety and the desire of drivers to quickly get to their destination. On the contrary, Megg argues that raising the speed limit makes the roads safer.

ABC road facilities

Every year, traffic experts review speed limits on thousands of roads and highways. In most cases, this is done by a member of the US Department of Transportation, often with a state police officer - as is the case in Michigan. In each case, inspectors have a clear approach: they want to set a speed limit that would not exceed about 85% of drivers.

This " state-recognized method " of setting the speed limit at 85% is practically the alphabet of traffic control. Strangers to him, he puzzles. Is it not necessary that all drivers do not exceed the speed limit? And if the driver’s speed is determined by the restriction, how can one base a decision to change the limit based on the speed of the road?

The bottom line is that the speed limit is just a number on the sign, and it has very little effect on how people drive. “Over the years I have done a lot of research in the wake of raising or decreasing the speed limit,” says Megg. “Almost always, the 85% speed does not change, and if it changes, then by 2-3 miles per hour.”

The most honest drivers probably admit what follows from the above: if the speed limit is changed from 65 to 55 mph [from 105 to 89 km / h], most drivers will not drive 10 mph slower. But the reverse is also true - if the inspectors increase the speed limit by 10 mph, the flow rate will not increase by 10 mph. It will remain about the same. Years of traffic observation showed to specialists that while the police car is not visible, drivers are driving at the speed they want.

Fortunately, when choosing a speed for people, a certain logic works, besides simple thirst for speed. Drivers choose speed not based on laws or signs, but on the basis of weather, the number of intersections, the presence of pedestrians and road bends, and all other relevant information. As Megg says, "none of my acquaintances, getting into the car, wants to break."

So if drivers don't care about speed limits, why bother trying to set the “right” limit at all?

One of the reasons: a small part of the drivers actually follow the restrictions. “About 10% of drivers actually recognize the sign of the restriction and follow it,” says Megg. Since this is the slowest part of drivers, they do not affect 85%. But they affect the average speed - by changing it to 2-3 miles / h when the limit is changed, as Megg argues - and, more importantly, to the variation in speeds of movement.

And this is important because, as noted in the report of the Ministry of Transport of the United States , "the potential for the occurrence of accidents is the highest in the case of movement at a speed that is much lower than or greater than the speed of most road users." If all cars put the cruise control at the same speed, the probability of an accident will be low. But when some travel at 55 mph and others at 85 mph, the likelihood of a collision increases dramatically. Therefore, for road safety, it is very important to make slow drivers drive in the right lane . Usually, we blame for road crashers as reckless - and justified - but a car moving in the left lane at a speed slower than the maximum allowed is almost as dangerous.

Road traffic experts are confident that the 85% rule is an ideal speed limit, as it involves the smallest variety of travel speeds and, therefore, makes the roads safer. If the speed limit is correctly set at 85%, a small part of the drivers, specially observing the speed limit, no longer travel much slower than the average flow rate. The choice of speed according to the 85% rule is a conclusion based on data made on the basis of regular confirmatory studies of road traffic.

But most speed limits are set below 85% speed. For the first time, this question was raised by the National Motorists Association , which aimed to raise the restrictions to 85%.

One of the members of the association sent us to the report of the Ministry of Transport in 1992, “Results of increasing and decreasing speed limits”, in which, apart from the arguments already described, it was noted that most of the organizations responsible for the highway set speed limits less than the value dictated by the rule 85%, which leads to the fact that more than 50% of motorists "technically exceed the speed limit." Megg believes that in Michigan the percentage of compliant drivers is below 50%.

It seems absurd that more than half of drivers constantly violate speed limits. It is equally surprising that the policy of restriction does not comply with the basic rules of traffic management. So why do people like Lieutenant Megg have to waste time trying to raise speed limits?

How Saudi Arabia made us all drive at 55 mph

When i'm going so slow
I find it very difficult to steer
And me from second to third
Unable to switch
I used to fly a couple of hours
Now it takes all day
It took me 16 hours
To crawl to LA

Sammy Hagar / “I Can't Drive 55”

In 1973, the Egyptian military crossed the Suez Canal with a surprise attack on Israel. So the " Doomsday War " began (it is the Fourth Arab-Israeli War), and so there were speed limits in the United States. When the United States began supplying weapons to Israel, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries declared an embargo against the United States and several other countries. Coupled with other restrictions on supply, this led to a fourfold increase in the cost of gasoline in the United States, gasoline was not enough, and queues began to accumulate at gas stations.

To reduce gasoline consumption, President Nixon issued a decree restricting the speed limit on US highways to 55 miles per hour [≈ 90 km / h], and Congress approved it the following year. The states themselves are officially responsible for speed limits, but national leaders, with varying success, persuaded them to comply with the law, tying its execution to funding. Since driving at high speeds is not as effective, it is believed that this restriction helped save 167,000 barrels of oil per day , or about 1% of US oil consumption.

And although the effects of the oil crisis subsided in the 1970s, the new federal speed limit remained. But instead of insisting on gasoline savings, members of Congress supported this restriction because they believed it helped improve road safety. This was demonstrated in disputes over the 1987 law, which allowed certain states to increase the speed limit to 65 mph. The New York Times wrote that "critics were quick to warn everyone that death rates would rise sharply on the highway." The chairman of the committee on public works and transport, an opponent of this law, called it "irresponsible and life-threatening."

Congress repealed the 1995 federal speed limit. Many states rushed to increase the speed limits even before they managed to place new road signs, but many left speed limits at a low level. 20 years of existence with a speed limit of 55 miles per hour created a lower bar pulling down modern speed limits.

Why speed limits are so low

If you carefully read the materials of the website of the Ministry of Transport, you can find a very technocratic explanation of the principle of 85%. But in a country, restrictions are usually below this mark, since there are many obstacles along the way of following this principle. For example, the Florida State Department of Transportation rejects the 85% rule, and the state legislature sets limits for each type of road separately. In a particular locality, officials may succumb to pressure from parents and other security-conscious groups and lower their speed.

The rule of 85% constantly loses our intuitive opinion that the faster the road, the more dangerous it is - and therefore the allowed speed should be lowered. With this delusion, says Megg, he often encounters in his work. When he proposes to increase the maximum allowed speed, the first reaction is usually: "Oh gods, this can not be done, people are already driving too fast." People believe that increasing the speed limit by 10 miles per hour will force everyone to drive 10 miles faster per hour, but in reality, changing the restrictions has almost no effect on the speed of traffic.

The same misunderstanding makes health-related organizations agitate for the reduction of the allowed speed, and this also affects the legislators. For example, WHO campaigns for a reduction in the permitted speed to prevent accidents on the roads and cites studies showing that traffic accidents and deaths increase with increasing speed. “From a purely physical point of view,” says Megg, “if you ask whether you want to crash into a pillar of the bridge at 10 miles per hour or 40 miles per hour, it’s hard to argue with that.” But advocating an increase in the speed limit, I do not urge to drive faster - and this is the hardest to understand. ”

If anyone could wave a magic wand and force all Americans to drive no faster than 60 miles an hour, the roads would be safer. But since law enforcement agencies cannot force more than half of Americans not to violate the speed limit, installing a sign with a lower maximum speed does not make the road safer. Fortunately, the highways in the US are safer than ever , and the number of deaths is a record low. The road can be dangerous, but the opinion that roads are becoming more and more dangerous is wrong.

Many adherents of reducing the permitted speeds will not agree with the actions of people like Lt. Megg. Just as Megg can indicate the results obtained from hundreds and thousands of roads that have become safer or have not lost their safety from increasing the maximum allowable speed, other researchers draw the opposite conclusion about the increase in speed and the number of accidents.

None of the studies mention the 85% principle, and Megg is surprised by the findings of the researchers. And since the debate on speed limits often involves experts expressing opposite points of view on the results of increasing the maximum speed, it seems that the policy on traffic rules would be more consistent if health care societies and traffic experts worked more often would be together.

Another reason why the maximum allowed speed remains low is voiced by John Bowman, director of communications for the national association of motorists. He claims that cities and police departments use fines for exceeding as a means of earning. Bowman says that if you artificially lower speed limits artificially, it’s easier to hand out fines and generate revenue.

Expressing concern about such “speed traps”, a decree was issued in Missouri in the 1990s that limits the city’s maximum income from road fines. In 2010, auditors found that between 75% and 83% of the budget of the city of Randolph in Missouri was filled with fines for exceeding. In this tiny town with a population of 50 people, located next to several casinos, there are two full-time police officers and eight part-time employees, which makes it a vivid example of a speed trap.

It is difficult to say how familiar the tactic practiced in Randolph is, and it is also difficult to tie it to a conscious desire to lower the speed limits. Each city makes decisions on its own, so it’s hard to say how often overdue fines are used to fill the budget. It is very easy for the police departments to defend their attempts to encourage employees to increase the number of fines issued, arguing that they are trying to increase road safety. That was how LAPD justified last year, after exceeding the quota for the exceeded speed quotes .

In our conversation, Megg argued that she believes in the seriousness of the problem of speed traps, and that such traps do not help maintain public order. In an article in Detroit News , which described many cities that ignore state laws and do not revise speed limits on their sections of the road, Megg said that he believes that these cities act so deliberately so as not to increase the maximum speed. This allows them to continue to receive income from "artificially low" restrictions.

Slow down

Given the inevitability of speeding, it is pleasant to realize that the highway can be made safer with the help of such accessible measures as setting realistic speed limits; there is no point in trying to get everyone to drive 10-20 miles an hour more slowly. But this option at first glance contradicts our goals. Are such restrictions low enough to accommodate cyclists playing children and making cities more accessible to pedestrians?

“I don't want to fool people,” says Megg. Maybe parents will feel better if their street speed is limited to 25, not 35 miles per hour, but this sign does not make people drive slower. Megg prefers such restrictions that allow people to legally drive at a safe speed and realistically reflect the real speed of movement. He says that people should not have a false sense of safety on the roads.

If people and politicians want to reduce speed on the roads to improve safety, or make cities more convenient for pedestrians, Megg says that "from an engineering point of view, you can do a lot of other things." Cities can reduce the number of lanes, change the situation with parking, create wider bicycle lanes, etc. It will be more expensive, but, unlike the change of numbers on the signs, and more effective.

Raising speed limits to the flow rate may look like dropping positions in front of fast and dangerous driving. But this will allow to achieve the opposite result. If people like Megg are right, then following the rule of 85% will make the roads safer and make you take speed limits more seriously.

In a report in 1992, the Ministry of Transport warned : "Arbitrarily chosen, unrealistic and non-uniform speed limits caused the neglect of speed limits in society to become acceptable." Megg worked on such roads, where almost no one obeyed speed limits, and often the recipients of fines complained that they did not exceed the speed any more than everyone else. Megg says that as the maximum speed increases, the police will be able to focus on the really important things: drunk drivers, unstuck people driving through a red light, and, most importantly, a small number of drivers traveling at an unacceptable speed.

It seems counterintuitive, but this is the formula that should appeal to Americans: raise the speed limit to make the roads safer.