American scientists: industrial robots eliminate jobs in the US, but do not give new

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Managers of many industrial enterprises in different countries are trying to automate production lines. From a business point of view, everything is correct - robots do not require food, lunch breaks, vacations and many other things. Of course, robotic systems are not free at all, many industrial installations cost tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Plus, their service also requires a lot of money. But in many cases, these costs pay off within a few years, and the company begins to receive net profit, without paying wages to those employees whose workplaces were eliminated by mechanisms.

Replacing people with robots is not at all fiction, this process has been going on for many years, and the trend is only increasing over time. The trade unions and the employees of enterprises where industrial robots are installed often protest against these actions, stating that in the end people lose their jobs. One of the studies, the results of which were recently published by the economist Daron Esmoglu from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, shows that this point of view is quite fair.

The purpose of the study is to assess the large-scale direct impact of the introduction of robots in enterprises, if, of course, this effect exists. As far as can be judged, this is the first major work on this topic, conducted, moreover, by an independent specialist, and not by the employees of a department of a company that produces industrial robots. Previously, the effect of using industrial robots was considered positive. For example, last year the results of another study were published , where it was shown that robots would allow to create new high-quality jobs. Accordingly, employees of enterprises will be able to improve their skills and receive these jobs.
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China, salary and robots

By the way, the development of robots is an area where new jobs are also constantly being created. The more industrial robots are required, the more engineers, programmers, and data analysis and machine learning specialists will be needed. And it really takes a lot of robots.

In the same China, only one Foxconn factory plans to replace the labor of 60,000 people with the labor of robots. The process of automating production lines began at this factory a long time ago, and last year, management stated the following: “The Foxconn factory reduces the number of workers from 110,000 to 50,000 thanks to robots. This will reduce the cost of labor ... Other companies will follow our example. ”

In 2016, Foxconn and other Taiwanese companies (yes, this is a Taiwanese company with factories in China) spent about $ 610 million to robotize their enterprises. The money went not only to replace people with robots, but also for various research in the field of artificial intelligence.

The Chinese company Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology announced the intention to fully automate the workflow at its factory. According to the plan, the work of people should be replaced by about 1000 robots. The company believes that robots will help increase overall productivity and reduce operating costs.

For China, the problem is that it has become the number one manufacturer in the world thanks to cheap labor. But over time, the situation is changing - labor is becoming more expensive, even in China. The same “one child” policy keeps the population of the country from growing out of control, but it also helps to reduce working people between the ages of 16 and 59. And the young Chinese are not at all eager to go to the factories. They, receiving education, previously inaccessible to their parents, tend to find less labor-intensive work.



As for the growth of wages, there is a positive trend. In 2005, the average salary in China was 18,364 yuan, in 2014 it was already 56,339 yuan, and the growth trend continues. Because of this, China is no longer so attractive for foreign companies that place their enterprises abroad to reduce the cost of production, as before.

Good or bad?

In the new work of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is not considered a theoretical situation, the concept of the impact of robots and software on humans. It analyzes the dynamics of jobs in those regions where robotization has already been done and occupies an important place in the production process. As it turned out, employment growth in these regions is very small. Moreover, the bulk of the staff of factories and factories is the hardest of all - not to developers or data analysis specialists, but to employees with working specialties. In most cases, they find themselves in a closed circle - neither can one leave, since there are no funds, nor can they get a new job - because the jobs are occupied by robots.

“The conclusion is that even if there is a small increase in employment, there will always be losers, and for local communities, recovery will take a long time,” says Esmoglu. “If you worked, for example, in Detroit for 10 years, you no longer have the opportunity to go, for example, to health care,” he says. “The market economy does not create jobs by itself, there will always be people who bear the brunt of the changes.”

The conclusion of this scientific work contrasts sharply with the commentary of the US Treasury Department. Its representatives said that replacing employees of US enterprises with robots, including those with artificial intelligence, "is not even on radar screens." More or less significant replacement of people with robots, according to representatives of the Ministry of Finance, will take place no earlier than 50-100 years.



According to some experts, officials are mistaken because systems with a weak form of artificial intelligence are already beginning to take jobs from human employees. “They say that new-type computers will not have a significant impact on the economy for 50 or 100 years,” says Andrew McAfee. “But I don’t even consider it necessary to speak with people who believe in it.” And these are not empty words. All that has been said relates not only to working specialties, but also to the sphere of activity where white collars are traditionally employed.

The fact is that McAfee interviewed about 140 experts in artificial intelligence, robotics and personnel. As it turned out, the rapprochement between humans and robots is not in the distant future, it has already happened. And the further, the more noticeable this trend will be. For example, most experts believe that by 2030, half of the trucks on the roads will be driven by software, smart computers, and not people. This means that in the United States alone, about 1.75 million people can lose their jobs over the next 15 years.

And this is not all - experts believe that at about the same time, neural networks and a weak form of AI will replace, for example, physicians who analyze data in patients' case histories. 95% of US air traffic control jobs will also replace automated systems. Here we are not talking about industrial robots, but simply about productive "smart" software platforms. They can replace the work of financiers .

At the same time, economists, using various methods of counting, could not come to a common opinion - the overall productivity of labor grows, replacing people with cars at American enterprises or not. As it turned out, labor productivity is increasing, and in industry this growth is more active than anywhere else.



From 1990 to 2007, it is estimated that robots caused the loss of work to approximately 670,000 employees of various enterprises, including the industrial sector. The gradual replacement of people with machines leads to a change in the labor market and the economy itself.

Replacing people with machines and software affects both specialties that are considered masculine and those that are considered to be purely feminine. But for men, this trend is about twice as active as for women. There is no explanation for this yet, but there is a cautious assumption that women are more willing to cut wages in order to save jobs than men.

Interesting were the results of a study on the effect of robotization on the parameters of amusement and wages in relatively small regions. Thus, with the introduction of one robot at the enterprise, the number of jobs per thousand people decreased by 6.2. The salary was reduced by 0.7%. As for the national level, this effect is smoothed out, since jobs are created in other regions.

As an example, you can take the same Detroit. There are a large number of enterprises owned by automakers. Most of the production processes of machines are automated, industrial robots are installed on many conveyor lines. At the local level, the effect of robotization is very strong. But when employees of enterprises are laid off in Detroit, they move to other regions where they work, for example, at steel mills, work as taxi drivers or do other work. At the same time, the average check at a Detroit resident’s store is slightly less than the average check from a representative of another region. After a detailed analysis of the situation in Detroit, it turned out that the commissioning of one robot leads to the dismissal of 3 people per thousand, plus a reduction in wages remaining by 0.25%.

What's next?

The published research results, no doubt, require verification and verification. But they are already used as arguments in discussions about how robotization affects the lives of people in different regions. A number of experts believe that robots and software do not replace people at all, the capabilities of robots and, for example, neural networks, complement the capabilities of people. “I don’t think this study closes the topic, I think it opens it,” said David Autor, Esmoglu’s colleague.


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Some experts believe that even if the results of the study are correct, it is also necessary to take into account the fact that new jobs, the creation of which robots do contribute to, are created in other areas, not where the number of vacancies and jobs is reduced.

As for industrial robots, they are used not only in the manufacture of automobiles, but also in such areas as electronics, metal-roll, the manufacture of plastics and various chemicals. To serve a large number of robots you need a very limited number of people. In the overwhelming majority of situations, operators are not needed at all.

Having learned how robotization affects wages and the number of employees of industrial enterprises, it would be good to conduct a study on how economics and employment are influenced by machine learning, drones and machines with automatic control.