Historical launch of SpaceX against the background of economic issues
This week, most likely, the historic first launch of the already-flying stage of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle will take place. Its test burn has already moved off from Sunday to Monday, and the planned launch date will probably move from Wednesday to Thursday. The launch is likely to be successful, and the Internet will fill the glee. But in 2017, for SpaceX, more important than re-launching a flying stage or even testing Falcon Heavy will be less visible and more sad looking economic issues.
Start EchoStar 23 March 16, photo SpaceX
The test burn on Monday will be the fifth (or eighth, depending on how you count) switching on the engines of the first stage No. 1021. After assembly, the stage was tested on February 5, 2016 at a test stand in MacGregor. After successful tests, the nozzles of several engines managed to damage in the incident with ground equipment on February 8. The nozzles were repaired, and the stage was sent to Cape Canaveral at the end of March 2016. The second time, the engines were turned on for 3.5 seconds during the test burning at the SLC-40 launch complex on 5 April. Three days later, the stage started (third engine starting) with the mission of supplying the ISS CRS-8. After working for 2 minutes and 42 seconds, the first step separated from the second. Successful landing on the barge "Of course, I still love you" - these are three more engine start-ups, but not all, so you can take them into account or not.
Step â„–1021 after landing, Photo SpaceX
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This landing was the first successful return of the first stage to the barge. It is curious that the option of returning to the landing site near the start was considered as an alternative, but we chose to land on the barge to prove its feasibility.
It was originally planned that the stage number 1021 will not fly again, but will be used in tests at the stand. Ten engine starts will have to confirm that the stage can be reused. But the situation changed when, contrary to expectations, level 1022, which was used to remove JCSAT-14, successfully landed on the barge. The satellite was heavy, and it was assumed that the first step would not be able to make a soft landing. In part, these fears were justified - the landing turned out to be more rigid. But for testing level number 1022 was best suited.
Already flying steps Falcon 9 in the hangar, Photo SpaceX
In July 2016, SpaceX announced that stage No. 1021 would be reused for unannounced payload, and stage No. 1022 was sent for testing. In August 2016, the payload was identified - the SES-10 telecommunications satellite for the geostationary orbit and the expected launch date is October-November 2016. But all the cards were confused by the September 1 accident on a test burn before launching AMOS-6. SpaceX flights were stopped for four months, and the launch of the SES-10 eventually moved to the end of March. In January 2017, the stage was again tested at McGregor (the fourth or seventh engine start) and sent to Cape Canaveral. The launch has already been postponed at least twice - once due to the delayed launch of the Cygnus OA7 truck to the ISS and the second time due to delays in preparation for launching already at SpaceX itself. We have already got used to the fact that Mask doesn’t fly away from the first time, so the launch on Thursday may well be postponed, but, most likely, it will take place this week.
A really great achievement of re-use of the stage, however, is not critical, after which SpaceX will suddenly have “all is well”. The road to switching to reusable launch vehicles is long, and in the coming years, no one even in SpaceX will know if it will be successful in the end. I wrote about it in more detail here - the cost of post-flight maintenance, the resource level and the percentage of losses so far exist only in paper calculations and are not confirmed by experience.
And the most important task for 2017 for SpaceX I would call the exit to regular successful launches. According to the plan, in 2017 there should be 27 launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy, March is already ending, and only three took place. In January of this year, SpaceX President Gwyn Shotwell has already spoken of "hoping for at least 20 launches." At the same time, the last two years have been very unsuccessful for the company due to accidents. In early 2017, The Wall Street Journal published SpaceX financial data and plans. The article is still unavailable for unregistered users, but the Russian site vc.ru quoted illustrations of the article at home.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
If we assume that the financial results of 2016 are repeated in 2015 due to the accident on September 1, which is quite logical, then SpaceX has been suffering losses for 2 years in a row. This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that the word “profitable” was removed from the company's description on the official website.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
In 2015 and 2016, SpaceX was unable to reach 10 launches per year, which means plans for 20-27 launches in 2017 are an increase in the amount of work at least twice. And such a task is a big challenge for any organization. It was the “golden era” of the space shuttles 1984-1985 that was the time of the greatest burden on support personnel, resources, money and people were not enough. If SpaceX, like NASA in the 80s, was mistaken with estimates of resource costs for launches, then the problem of overload may recur.
"The lessons of space catastrophes"
In such circumstances, it is easier to make a mistake or underestimate a problem that could lead to an accident. A new accident SpaceX can not afford, because it is a waste of time, money, customers and reputation.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
For all the difficulties, SpaceX plans are grand at the level of megalomania. Starting from 2020, the main income of the company is planned to be not the launch of launch vehicles, but the income from communication services and the global Internet. 12,000 satellites will have to bring the company tens of billions of dollars a year by the mid-2020s, even though banal arithmetic requires another industrial revolution in the production and development of satellites, the technology for which SpaceX has not yet shown.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
On the other hand, when half of the package of orders is occupied by state agencies - NASA and the military, you can build gigantic plans. SpaceX prices so far look very profitable in the US market compared to the ULA, Musk continues to win contracts for launches of government satellites, and the new administration of Trump does not yet block his oxygen.
Start EchoStar 23 March 16, photo SpaceX
Adventure stage number 1021
The test burn on Monday will be the fifth (or eighth, depending on how you count) switching on the engines of the first stage No. 1021. After assembly, the stage was tested on February 5, 2016 at a test stand in MacGregor. After successful tests, the nozzles of several engines managed to damage in the incident with ground equipment on February 8. The nozzles were repaired, and the stage was sent to Cape Canaveral at the end of March 2016. The second time, the engines were turned on for 3.5 seconds during the test burning at the SLC-40 launch complex on 5 April. Three days later, the stage started (third engine starting) with the mission of supplying the ISS CRS-8. After working for 2 minutes and 42 seconds, the first step separated from the second. Successful landing on the barge "Of course, I still love you" - these are three more engine start-ups, but not all, so you can take them into account or not.
Step â„–1021 after landing, Photo SpaceX
')
This landing was the first successful return of the first stage to the barge. It is curious that the option of returning to the landing site near the start was considered as an alternative, but we chose to land on the barge to prove its feasibility.
It was originally planned that the stage number 1021 will not fly again, but will be used in tests at the stand. Ten engine starts will have to confirm that the stage can be reused. But the situation changed when, contrary to expectations, level 1022, which was used to remove JCSAT-14, successfully landed on the barge. The satellite was heavy, and it was assumed that the first step would not be able to make a soft landing. In part, these fears were justified - the landing turned out to be more rigid. But for testing level number 1022 was best suited.
Already flying steps Falcon 9 in the hangar, Photo SpaceX
In July 2016, SpaceX announced that stage No. 1021 would be reused for unannounced payload, and stage No. 1022 was sent for testing. In August 2016, the payload was identified - the SES-10 telecommunications satellite for the geostationary orbit and the expected launch date is October-November 2016. But all the cards were confused by the September 1 accident on a test burn before launching AMOS-6. SpaceX flights were stopped for four months, and the launch of the SES-10 eventually moved to the end of March. In January 2017, the stage was again tested at McGregor (the fourth or seventh engine start) and sent to Cape Canaveral. The launch has already been postponed at least twice - once due to the delayed launch of the Cygnus OA7 truck to the ISS and the second time due to delays in preparation for launching already at SpaceX itself. We have already got used to the fact that Mask doesn’t fly away from the first time, so the launch on Thursday may well be postponed, but, most likely, it will take place this week.
the main task
A really great achievement of re-use of the stage, however, is not critical, after which SpaceX will suddenly have “all is well”. The road to switching to reusable launch vehicles is long, and in the coming years, no one even in SpaceX will know if it will be successful in the end. I wrote about it in more detail here - the cost of post-flight maintenance, the resource level and the percentage of losses so far exist only in paper calculations and are not confirmed by experience.
And the most important task for 2017 for SpaceX I would call the exit to regular successful launches. According to the plan, in 2017 there should be 27 launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy, March is already ending, and only three took place. In January of this year, SpaceX President Gwyn Shotwell has already spoken of "hoping for at least 20 launches." At the same time, the last two years have been very unsuccessful for the company due to accidents. In early 2017, The Wall Street Journal published SpaceX financial data and plans. The article is still unavailable for unregistered users, but the Russian site vc.ru quoted illustrations of the article at home.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
If we assume that the financial results of 2016 are repeated in 2015 due to the accident on September 1, which is quite logical, then SpaceX has been suffering losses for 2 years in a row. This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that the word “profitable” was removed from the company's description on the official website.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
In 2015 and 2016, SpaceX was unable to reach 10 launches per year, which means plans for 20-27 launches in 2017 are an increase in the amount of work at least twice. And such a task is a big challenge for any organization. It was the “golden era” of the space shuttles 1984-1985 that was the time of the greatest burden on support personnel, resources, money and people were not enough. If SpaceX, like NASA in the 80s, was mistaken with estimates of resource costs for launches, then the problem of overload may recur.
"The lessons of space catastrophes"
NASA's brilliant visible success hid the disastrous overload of performers. In the memoirs of the astronaut Mike Mullein, it is told about entire teams, processing for months without a single day off, workers who were pulled out of the house in the evening for an urgent call, and they worked even drunk. The NASA document flow was overwhelmed by the requirements “I need people! Spare parts! Equipment! ”, Which remained unanswered, because there was nothing to acquire the required.
In such circumstances, it is easier to make a mistake or underestimate a problem that could lead to an accident. A new accident SpaceX can not afford, because it is a waste of time, money, customers and reputation.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
For all the difficulties, SpaceX plans are grand at the level of megalomania. Starting from 2020, the main income of the company is planned to be not the launch of launch vehicles, but the income from communication services and the global Internet. 12,000 satellites will have to bring the company tens of billions of dollars a year by the mid-2020s, even though banal arithmetic requires another industrial revolution in the production and development of satellites, the technology for which SpaceX has not yet shown.
Illustration of The Wall Street Journal / vc.ru
On the other hand, when half of the package of orders is occupied by state agencies - NASA and the military, you can build gigantic plans. SpaceX prices so far look very profitable in the US market compared to the ULA, Musk continues to win contracts for launches of government satellites, and the new administration of Trump does not yet block his oxygen.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/402587/
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