The threat of AI is not Skynet, but the disappearance of the middle class.

In February 1975, several geneticists gathered in a small town on the central coast of California to decide if what they were doing would lead to the end of the world. They were just beginning to discover the science of genetic engineering, DNA management for the creation of organisms that do not exist in nature, and they were not sure how these technologies would affect the health of the planet and the people inhabiting it. So they retired to the shelter under the name Asilomar - a name that has become a synonym for the rules developed by them at this meeting - a strict ethical platform created so that biotechnology does not lead to an apocalypse.

After 42 years, another group of scientists gathered in Asilomar to look at a similar problem. But this time the threat was not biological, but digital. In January, the best researchers in the field of AI went the same way, discussing the rapidly expanding area of their interests, and the role it will play in the fate of humanity. The conference was private - the monstrosity of the topic deserves it - but then the organizers released several video clips with presentations, and some were ready to discuss their personal experience and shed light on how AI researchers see the threat from their own field of activity.

Yes, they discussed the possibility that the superintelligence would somehow get out of people's control, and by the end of the month the organizers had discovered a set of rules signed by participants and other lights from the field of AI intended to prevent such an anti-utopia. But researchers in Asilomar were also worried about more urgent problems: how AI will affect the economy.

“One of the reasons I don’t like talking about super-intelligence is because they distract from reality,” said Oren Etzioni, General Director of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AIAI, or AI2), who participated in the conference, - as the poet said, instead of imaginary problems, get real. "
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The Trump administration promises to make America great again by returning traditional manufacturing jobs to it, but AI specialists do not take it seriously. They know that these jobs will not return - mainly due to their own work, which in the future will destroy many other jobs. In Asilomar they viewed the real economy of the USA, the real reasons for the disappearance of the middle class. The problem is not immigration. The problem is not the loss of funds in offshore or taxes or regulation. The problem is technology.

Angry because of the cars *

[ * original pun: "Rage Against the Machines" - approx. trans. ]

In the US, the number of jobs in production was maximum in 1979, and since then has steadily decreased. At the same time, production grew steadily, and now more goods are produced in the United States than in any other country except China. Machines do not just take the place of people on the assembly lines, they cope better. And this is before the oncoming wave of AI will turn many other sectors of the economy. “I’m less worried about Terminator-type scenarios,” said Andrew McAfee, an economist at MIT, on the first day of the conference. “With the continuation of current trends, people will rebel much earlier than machines.”

McAfee pointed to new data showing a sharp decline in the number of jobs created for the middle class since the 1980s. Today, most new jobs are either at the very bottom of the salary scale, or at the very top. He also argued that these trends could be expanded, that improved education and increased emphasis on entrepreneurship and research could launch new growth engines, that economies were already coping with the growth of new technologies. But after his report on the sidelines of Asilomar, many researchers warned him that the upcoming AI revolution would eliminate much more work and much faster than it seemed to him.

The emergence of unmanned vehicles and trucks is just the beginning. New AI technologies will reinvent everything, from manufacturing to healthcare and Wall Street. In other words, AI threatens not only those who work with their hands. “Several luminaries from this area approached me and said:“ I think you underestimate this area. You misjudge the rate of change, ”says McAfee.

Because of this threat, many theorists are thinking about the idea of ​​a universal basic income, guaranteed benefits, paid by the government to anyone who has lost his job [ in fact, just for everyone - approx. trans. ]. But McAfee believes that this will only exacerbate the problem, since it will eliminate the attractiveness of entrepreneurship and other activity that can create new jobs with the disappearance of old ones. Others talk about the psychological effects of this process. “Universal basic income does not support self-esteem and does not protect people from boredom and vices,” says Etzioni.

In addition, the researchers reflected on the regulation of AI. Some fear that after the government squeezes immigration — which will slow down the entrepreneurship that McAfee is talking about — it will move to limitations in automation and AI. This will be a disaster both for AI researchers and for the economy. If AI transformation slows down in the US, it will only accelerate in other countries, which will result in an even greater threat to US jobs within the framework of global competition.

As a result, no one left Asilomar with the right way to prevent an economic coup in their hands. “Anyone who makes confident predictions about something related to the future or the AI ​​deceives either you or yourself,” says McAfee.

And yet, the researchers intend to find the answers. “People deal with problems in different ways. But I have not yet met an AI researcher who doesn't care, "says Etzioni. "People care about this." But they are confident that the answer will not prevent the development of AI. Yes, it is impossible, in actual fact - it is about as impossible as the return of old jobs.