Prediction of scientists: in 2022 the collision of stars will be seen in the night sky

Calvin College professor Larry Molnar and his students, along with colleagues from the Apache Point conservatory and the University of Wyoming, predict a change in the night sky that can be seen with the naked eye.

“The fact that someone can predict an explosion is a one-million chance,” Molnar said. He estimated that no one could have done that before. He calculated that two stars rotating around each other, forming a single system - a double star - will merge and explode in 2022. Shortly before the collision, the brightness of this pair will increase by ten thousand times, and for some time it will become one of the most noticeable stars in the sky, which can be seen without special devices. It is expected that the collision will occur between the stars in the constellation Cygnus.
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Molnar has been studying the star, known as KIC 9832227, since 2013. It all started with a visit to an astronomy conference, where the Apache Point Observatory employee Karen Kimemuchi (Karenemuchi) presented her research on how to change the brightness of a star. At the end of the speech, the question was raised whether it was a star system or not, which inspired Molnar to do his own research.

At the same time, Calvin’s college student Daniel Van Noord, research assistant Molnar, was present at the conference. He accepted this question as a personal challenge and watched a star from a college observatory. First of all, he was interested in how the color of the aurora correlates with the brightness, which helped to determine the binary nature of the star. Molnar notes that they revolve around each other and "have a common atmosphere, like two nuts, under the same shell."

When Van Nurd established that these are two gravitationally bound stars, he, based on the data obtained by Kinemuchi from the Kepler satellite , took up the determination of the exact orbital period. The scientist found that the star makes a complete revolution a little faster than Kinemuchi predicted.

Scientists analyzed the results and studied similar cases. At one time, astronomer Romuald Tilenda (Romuald Tylenda) studied the archives of observations to find out how the double star in the constellation Scorpius behaved before unexpectedly exploding in 2008 and leading to the birth of a red supernova. Then the preliminary recordings demonstrated the link between the approach of a collision and the rapid reduction of the orbital period. The work the scientist did later helped Molnar interpret the new data.

After observing changes in the orbital period in 2013 and 2014, Molnar presented information about the orbital period for the past 15 years at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society and concluded that KIC 9832227 can follow in the footsteps of the star of the constellation Scorpio. However, before taking this hypothesis seriously, it was necessary to exclude other, more mundane interpretations of changes in the orbital period.

Within two years after this meeting, Molnar and his team conducted two serious observational tests to exclude several other explanations of what could be the reason for the change in the orbital period, thereby confirming the forecast made in 2015.

“We really believe that now we need to seriously consider the hypothesis of the merger of these stars. We also believe that in the next few years it is necessary to study this phenomenon intensively in order to know its cause in the event of an explosion, ”notes Molnar. To this end, a team of scientists will monitor the stellar system next year in the entire long-wavelength range using the Very Large Array radio telescope , an infrared telescope and the XMM-Newton spacecraft and infrared radiation.

The Molnar team is sure: if the forecast really comes true, then in the future astronomers will be able to follow the life of the stars and predict further explosions. The project is of great importance not only because of scientific results, but also because it can capture the imagination of ordinary passersby. If the forecast is correct, then for the first time in history, parents will be able to point to a dark spot in the sky and say: “Look, children, this is the place where the star is hiding, which will soon illuminate everything around.”

Molnar argues that this is the beginning of a story that will unfold over the next few years and that different people will be able to participate. Amateur astronomers who, by modern standards, have really amazing equipment can check the orbital periods. They can measure the change in the brightness of a star, the way it dwarfs other stars, and whether these changes relate to the schedule that Molnar proposes or not.