New way of world development

I learned yesterday at Moscow Evenings that there is a current scientific rationale for a certain world order. The program “a new way of world development” has been developed.

The speakers generally only talked about their predictive system. This thing stores statistical information over the years of operation of the customer company and tries to help its management in making management decisions. Softina sell to predict future loads in the telecom, energy, etc. The prediction errors are quite good, a couple of percent for telecom and five for power engineers. Very funny, they before the start of the customer project convince in the accuracy of software. Or extrapolate later data to earlier ones. Either the time axis is not twisted, but it is predicted for the end of the already known period from incomplete statistical data. This is already much clearer to me than the "former-intelligence -nothing-not-say-but-it-can-everything ". This concludes a specific decision, the speech is not about the system, but about the interesting history of the development of its colleagues and the “new way of world development”

At first, strategy modeling became relevant for the military. In their subject area you will not conduct an experiment, and the statistics is difficult to maintain. The data on the siege of Troy or even on the attacks of the red cavalry of the times of our Civil War are unlikely to help modern rocket men or aviators. In the 40s of the last century, the Americans and the British conducted experiments on the strategic use of scenarios. Then Jay Forrester , engaged in building models for American realtors in the mid-50s, realized that the systems of equations in which he stuffed, figuratively speaking, the incomes of fellow citizens, the amount of housing built, etc., he clearly lacks. So there is a system dynamics. Pretty quickly, already in the 60s, the methodology was adopted in the corporate governance environment. Ten years after the notion, in the 68th the Club of Rome entrusts Forrester with predicting the future. The scientist takes statistics from 1900, takes into account population growth, the level of pollution, some total mass of capital (the definition of capital I know is such that I would not undertake to weigh it on the same scales, but God be with him, Forrester is smarter and somehow then measured) and created a model of the future development of the Earth. It turned out that in 2010-2030 the level of pollution will reach a level that will cause a decrease in the population. By 2050, we still have someone alive, but in complete chaos
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The Rome Club is logical to think about how to avoid it. Over time, I thought of “organic growth” and a stunning, I believe, the idea of ​​“ limiting resource consumption at the expense of the so-called industrially underdeveloped countries .” If so, that's five. Type at a meeting of tenants decided that since the water is not all in the house is not enough, then in the 22nd and 45th to give it in the evening hours will not. Why in these two? And why should they, anyway, alcoholics. The rest will get more, otherwise everyone will be bent. (I know that I don’t always understand my personal assessment of what is happening. Although it seems obvious to me. Probably I convey too much in speech in intonations. So, so that there is no misunderstanding: I consider this idea disgusting)

But this is Wikipedia, no matter how credible, we look at the official club website. It says who can be a member of the club and who he is now . There are Benin bankers, Moroccan professors, former Mexican ambassadors. Ours is not. Vicki says that at various times members were Kapitsa, Primakov and Gorbachev. It is written about the independence of the Club of Rome, the location of its international secretariat in Zurich, the directions of work. The fact that consumption needs to be regulated only in some specific countries is not written. Is this Vicki coming up or is the site just incomplete? Who has heard of the “new path of world development”? Is this “organic growth” really there? Who of the talking heads in the speeches referred to the project that they justified with its help?

And a few words about what we have to predict. These people are interesting, have grown from a closed research institute. It seems like Gazprom’s production is forecast and delivered to a bunch of our government agencies . I wonder if we have a smart head somewhere in a cap or in civilian clothes that has driven into a similar software, for example, the dynamics of the US energy consumption structure, the info about military crises, tried to identify dependencies, extrapolate for the future, estimate the error