Crowd wisdom under computer control: hybrid intelligence learns to predict the unpredictable
The race of artificial intelligences has begun: neural networks are mastering more and more unexpected and interesting tasks that they could solve, and more and more companies and startups are trying to take them to a qualitatively new level, behind which lies the passage of the Turing test and singularity. While some are lavish with generous promises for those who want to get around everyone ( “The first trillionaire will be the one who engages in AI” ), others frighten the horrors of singularity and unpredictability of relations between humanity and AI . However, they both argue within the framework of one paradigm: AI is inevitable - the only question is whether it will bring us misfortunes, prosperity or a complex mixture of the one and the other - then in what proportions?
But there is a third way, an alternative to the world of the unopposed superiority of AI, in which we surrender to him at the mercy - hoping that this, and the truth, will be mercy. These are the capabilities of the human brain itself. In the article “People will not even understand how they became cyborg”, I outlined the idea theoretically: neural interfaces, which are being developed with no less success, but less aplomb, than neural networks are developing, are able to take man and humanity as a whole to a new level of intellectual power, which it is quite capable of delaying the onset of the moment when we become pets in the caring care of robots and SkyNet, and extending the time for us, when we can still allow ourselves to feel the crowns of creation - now not evolution, gods or engineers.
2017 has already earned a place in the future describing the history of cyborgization of a person, at least by the fact that Ilon Mask, a man whose ideas always become the number one news in the world of technology, launched Neuralink, which should weave a “neural circle” - an implantable electronic shell of the brain. Electric cars, autopilots, the development of Mars or new technologies of public transport - Musk denotes the main trends of progress one after another. But this does not mean that there was no life before Mask - just Ilon can disperse any topic that he paid attention to by the mere fact of his powerful media influence entering the orbit.
')
So, the team of Russian mathematicians and traders Cindicator suddenly found itself at the cutting edge of progress: the guys just did their work until the launch of Neuralink identified the merging of the human brain with the computing power and communication capabilities of computers as one of the top trends. And Cindicator , suddenly for himself, was among the leaders of this trend.
Cindicator is a platform that combines the capabilities of the collective mind in the most direct sense (the so-called "wisdom of the crowd") with the analytical power of computer systems to predict future events, primarily in the financial sector.
If you go completely from afar, then any mass expression of will carried out correctly is the very expression of the collective unconscious that can be “cast in granite”: the voice of the people is the voice of God.
But so far no one has managed to go beyond the amusing laboratory experiments and find practical application of the “wisdom of the crowd”. Firstly, for understandable logistic reasons: the technical ability to involve an unlimited number of people in solving problems by this method appeared relatively recently. It was the boom of smartphones and mobile Internet that made the “crowd” as accessible as possible to those who are interested in its “wisdom” - and allowed the process of guessing to give shape to the game.
Secondly, in accordance with the mathematical principle “the correct formulation of the problem contains half of the solution”, one must be able to put the question before the collective mind - so that it does not work out like in “The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy”
The answer to the main question of life, the universe and all of this: after careful thought, I can say - this is 42
Studies of the wisdom of the crowd say that the best application for it are problems with a specific definite answer - mathematical or geographical. In other words, places or numbers. And since a place is just a point in the coordinate system, it all comes down to numbers. Paradox: very few people at school loved mathematics - but collectively we turn out to be quite good accountants. I wonder what will happen if schoolchildren begin to pass exams, voting with the whole class for certain answers?
And due to the “connection” to the collective mind through a mobile application, Cindicator achieves complete decentralization of its collective mind, which is one of the principal conditions - group members must avoid any communication and exchange of views within the team, in order to avoid the influence of some individuals on others.
When the character of the film “Back to the Future” decided to earn extra money on knowing what was coming, he decided to make money on sports betting. Cindicator, choosing the scope of his efforts, began with the financial market, which gave the most promising feedback: it came up with an urgent, everyday need for predictions (what can I say when individual financial instruments by the name itself say that they require Nostradamus) and a clear feedback that allows you to assess the quality of their forecasts - and, of course, the ability to effectively monetize the resulting data.
Having strengthened a team of mathematicians and data analysts by experienced traders with serious experience in managing large positions, trading in global stock, futures, currency and crypto markets, Cindicator began to grope for a “special way” in the cruel world of financial trading.
Practical application of the wisdom of the crowd in trading on the stock and currency markets in reality looks a little more difficult than daily attempts to collectively guess tomorrow's dollar rate. Cindicator constantly tests various types of questions, data, new trading strategies and models to optimize the use of the data obtained to create trading robots and analytical products (indices, price levels, sentiments, and others); Constantly conducts Bektest and Forwardtests to adapt models in constantly changing markets.
In addition to working with the results of the predictions of the crowd, Cindicator adjusts the prediction machine itself: as the Cindicator experience shows, fine-tuning is quite capable of accelerating the efficiency of its engine at times. One example of this is a joint experiment with the Moscow Exchange, during which the Cindicator trading robot for three weeks made deals based on the collective opinion of 863 users of the application, of whom 40% had never made deals on the stock exchange before. In total, during the experiment, the robot modeled 27 transactions, 17 of which were profitable. As a result, during the competition, the model portfolio grew by 2.8% in foreign currency (47% per annum).
To improve its performance, Cindicator electronics needs to analyze not only the accuracy of each collective forecast, but also the effectiveness of each of the thousands and tens of thousands of forecasters, its strengths and weaknesses - this is the big data that has been talked about so much in recent years, but barely learned to approach her.
The work of Cindicator with big data includes the system and methods for determining the forecast weight of each user of the application based on a personal time sheet for various types of questions (decision time, history of forecasts for each type of investment instrument, the relationship between answers, the type of analysis method used and t .d.), dynamic feedback after each transaction, taking into account both the fact of profit or loss, and its size for the results of each of its forecasts.
Thus, the computational power of Cindicator not only tunes the collective prediction machine itself. She distinguishes among the crowd - individuality. At first glance, this may seem counter to the very idea of ​​the wisdom of the crowd, when a large amount of noise, errors, subjectivism is compensated by its heterogeneity and different directions (the simplest example is the Gauss distribution), but the Cindicator practice shows that a small dirigisme performed with a high mathematical accuracy, allows not only to tune the spontaneous power of collective predictions, but also, which absolutely could not have been expected in advance - to identify people who consistently turn out to be in fact strong forecasters themselves by themselves - superforcasters.
Until recently, the phenomenon of "wisdom of the crowd" remained, in fact, not studied deeply. Experiments confirming its availability have been carried out sufficiently . But there was simply no computational and organizational capacity to dig deeper.
Cindicator is not a research project, but a deeper understanding of the principles of this phenomenon is a side effect of the practical application of the “wisdom of the crowd” - and new discoveries. How did the confirmation of the theory of superforcasters (super-forecasters) happen soon after the launch of the platform - people who in most cases make more accurate predictions on certain assets and issues than others. The share of superforcasters among all Cindicator users is approximately 2%. Further analysis showed that they are also heterogeneous - some superforkasters are universal as forecasters, in others the accuracy above the median is manifested in the prediction of only a certain type of events. The reasons for both the uniqueness of these 2% and the specialization of some of them have yet to be determined - it can be both natural talent and acquired competence - in the example of the experiment with the Moscow Exchange mentioned earlier, the investor with 10 years of experience has become the author of the most accurate forecasts. However, this does not devalue the idea itself: its personal trading result would be + 1.48% in three weeks (25% per annum), which is almost two times lower than the yield provided by the collective wisdom of the Cindicator forcasters (2.8% in 3 for weeks / 47% per annum).
In comedy shows, gag is often found when a housewife divines the results of sports matches better than her husband-fan. In real life, the most unexpected people can be carriers of talent to predict the exchange rates or weather conditions of the future, without even knowing it - as well as what they could have achieved using this superpower.
Machine-adjusted crowd wisdom is called the Cindicator "hybrid intelligence" (GI). The project team is not even correctly called developers - because they are developing only part of the system. Her main strength, literally live. So a Cindicator would be more suitable for defining managers of hybrid intelligence. Being at the very beginning of the way for its development, study, domestication.
If you combine the knowledge of Cindicator about the wisdom of the crowd and the experience in directing the elemental power of collective intelligence to solve applied problems with the development of the same Neuralink, if Ilona Mask accompanies them with the same success as with electric vehicles, then the hybrid intelligence of Cindicator, combined with a neural interface, it can provide people with a breakthrough at a new technological, intellectual, social level, which previously was associated exclusively with the invention of AI.
The physical (more precisely, bioelectronic) interface created by Neuralink will require software developments that allow you to directly realize the opportunities that have emerged - just like a modern smartphone without a rich set of programs, turns out to be nothing more than an expensive flashlight. The development of hardware is more complicated and more expensive, but in the end, the one who has the best software wins - let’s be an example of a Windows Phone that hasn’t taken off as an eternal reminder of this.
By deploying its technologies on the Neuralink platform or any other similar project that comes to the finish line earlier, Cindicator will be able to overcome the margin of conventionality in defining “hybrid intelligence” and create a hybrid of the human mind with the computing power of machines without any quotes. In fact, this will mean a transition to the Vernadsky noosphere . And so far, of all the alternatives available to us, namely the capabilities of the human mind, overclocked by integration with electronic brains, combined, perhaps, into a kind of supermind, seem to be the best defense against AI threats, real or imaginary. At the very least, this will preserve the ability of the human mind to know the reality - postponing the onset of singularity for some time - that is, the moment when the speed and complexity of technology development will outstrip a person's ability to realize what is happening. Hybrid intelligence is our best chance so far to keep our place at the top of the food chain.
But there is a third way, an alternative to the world of the unopposed superiority of AI, in which we surrender to him at the mercy - hoping that this, and the truth, will be mercy. These are the capabilities of the human brain itself. In the article “People will not even understand how they became cyborg”, I outlined the idea theoretically: neural interfaces, which are being developed with no less success, but less aplomb, than neural networks are developing, are able to take man and humanity as a whole to a new level of intellectual power, which it is quite capable of delaying the onset of the moment when we become pets in the caring care of robots and SkyNet, and extending the time for us, when we can still allow ourselves to feel the crowns of creation - now not evolution, gods or engineers.
2017 has already earned a place in the future describing the history of cyborgization of a person, at least by the fact that Ilon Mask, a man whose ideas always become the number one news in the world of technology, launched Neuralink, which should weave a “neural circle” - an implantable electronic shell of the brain. Electric cars, autopilots, the development of Mars or new technologies of public transport - Musk denotes the main trends of progress one after another. But this does not mean that there was no life before Mask - just Ilon can disperse any topic that he paid attention to by the mere fact of his powerful media influence entering the orbit.
')
So, the team of Russian mathematicians and traders Cindicator suddenly found itself at the cutting edge of progress: the guys just did their work until the launch of Neuralink identified the merging of the human brain with the computing power and communication capabilities of computers as one of the top trends. And Cindicator , suddenly for himself, was among the leaders of this trend.
What does the cindicator do?
Cindicator is a platform that combines the capabilities of the collective mind in the most direct sense (the so-called "wisdom of the crowd") with the analytical power of computer systems to predict future events, primarily in the financial sector.
The wisdom of the crowd - repeatedly seen and confirmed effect, when the arithmetic mean of guessing results by any large number of people, is close to the correct answer. Remember how Raymond Babbitt, played by Dustin Hoffman in the movie “Rain Man”, at one glance accurately counted the number of toothpicks scattered by the waitress? An ordinary person cannot do this, but if a hundred people write down their estimates made at a glance, then the arithmetic average will most likely be close to the truth.
If you go completely from afar, then any mass expression of will carried out correctly is the very expression of the collective unconscious that can be “cast in granite”: the voice of the people is the voice of God.
But so far no one has managed to go beyond the amusing laboratory experiments and find practical application of the “wisdom of the crowd”. Firstly, for understandable logistic reasons: the technical ability to involve an unlimited number of people in solving problems by this method appeared relatively recently. It was the boom of smartphones and mobile Internet that made the “crowd” as accessible as possible to those who are interested in its “wisdom” - and allowed the process of guessing to give shape to the game.
Secondly, in accordance with the mathematical principle “the correct formulation of the problem contains half of the solution”, one must be able to put the question before the collective mind - so that it does not work out like in “The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy”
The answer to the main question of life, the universe and all of this: after careful thought, I can say - this is 42
Studies of the wisdom of the crowd say that the best application for it are problems with a specific definite answer - mathematical or geographical. In other words, places or numbers. And since a place is just a point in the coordinate system, it all comes down to numbers. Paradox: very few people at school loved mathematics - but collectively we turn out to be quite good accountants. I wonder what will happen if schoolchildren begin to pass exams, voting with the whole class for certain answers?
And due to the “connection” to the collective mind through a mobile application, Cindicator achieves complete decentralization of its collective mind, which is one of the principal conditions - group members must avoid any communication and exchange of views within the team, in order to avoid the influence of some individuals on others.
How to make money on forecasts
When the character of the film “Back to the Future” decided to earn extra money on knowing what was coming, he decided to make money on sports betting. Cindicator, choosing the scope of his efforts, began with the financial market, which gave the most promising feedback: it came up with an urgent, everyday need for predictions (what can I say when individual financial instruments by the name itself say that they require Nostradamus) and a clear feedback that allows you to assess the quality of their forecasts - and, of course, the ability to effectively monetize the resulting data.
Having strengthened a team of mathematicians and data analysts by experienced traders with serious experience in managing large positions, trading in global stock, futures, currency and crypto markets, Cindicator began to grope for a “special way” in the cruel world of financial trading.
Practical application of the wisdom of the crowd in trading on the stock and currency markets in reality looks a little more difficult than daily attempts to collectively guess tomorrow's dollar rate. Cindicator constantly tests various types of questions, data, new trading strategies and models to optimize the use of the data obtained to create trading robots and analytical products (indices, price levels, sentiments, and others); Constantly conducts Bektest and Forwardtests to adapt models in constantly changing markets.
In addition to working with the results of the predictions of the crowd, Cindicator adjusts the prediction machine itself: as the Cindicator experience shows, fine-tuning is quite capable of accelerating the efficiency of its engine at times. One example of this is a joint experiment with the Moscow Exchange, during which the Cindicator trading robot for three weeks made deals based on the collective opinion of 863 users of the application, of whom 40% had never made deals on the stock exchange before. In total, during the experiment, the robot modeled 27 transactions, 17 of which were profitable. As a result, during the competition, the model portfolio grew by 2.8% in foreign currency (47% per annum).
To improve its performance, Cindicator electronics needs to analyze not only the accuracy of each collective forecast, but also the effectiveness of each of the thousands and tens of thousands of forecasters, its strengths and weaknesses - this is the big data that has been talked about so much in recent years, but barely learned to approach her.
The work of Cindicator with big data includes the system and methods for determining the forecast weight of each user of the application based on a personal time sheet for various types of questions (decision time, history of forecasts for each type of investment instrument, the relationship between answers, the type of analysis method used and t .d.), dynamic feedback after each transaction, taking into account both the fact of profit or loss, and its size for the results of each of its forecasts.
The sleep of reason gives birth to monsters. Analysis of the collective mind - superforcasters
Thus, the computational power of Cindicator not only tunes the collective prediction machine itself. She distinguishes among the crowd - individuality. At first glance, this may seem counter to the very idea of ​​the wisdom of the crowd, when a large amount of noise, errors, subjectivism is compensated by its heterogeneity and different directions (the simplest example is the Gauss distribution), but the Cindicator practice shows that a small dirigisme performed with a high mathematical accuracy, allows not only to tune the spontaneous power of collective predictions, but also, which absolutely could not have been expected in advance - to identify people who consistently turn out to be in fact strong forecasters themselves by themselves - superforcasters.
Superforkastera - superheroes of the real world
Until recently, the phenomenon of "wisdom of the crowd" remained, in fact, not studied deeply. Experiments confirming its availability have been carried out sufficiently . But there was simply no computational and organizational capacity to dig deeper.
Cindicator is not a research project, but a deeper understanding of the principles of this phenomenon is a side effect of the practical application of the “wisdom of the crowd” - and new discoveries. How did the confirmation of the theory of superforcasters (super-forecasters) happen soon after the launch of the platform - people who in most cases make more accurate predictions on certain assets and issues than others. The share of superforcasters among all Cindicator users is approximately 2%. Further analysis showed that they are also heterogeneous - some superforkasters are universal as forecasters, in others the accuracy above the median is manifested in the prediction of only a certain type of events. The reasons for both the uniqueness of these 2% and the specialization of some of them have yet to be determined - it can be both natural talent and acquired competence - in the example of the experiment with the Moscow Exchange mentioned earlier, the investor with 10 years of experience has become the author of the most accurate forecasts. However, this does not devalue the idea itself: its personal trading result would be + 1.48% in three weeks (25% per annum), which is almost two times lower than the yield provided by the collective wisdom of the Cindicator forcasters (2.8% in 3 for weeks / 47% per annum).
In comedy shows, gag is often found when a housewife divines the results of sports matches better than her husband-fan. In real life, the most unexpected people can be carriers of talent to predict the exchange rates or weather conditions of the future, without even knowing it - as well as what they could have achieved using this superpower.
Forward to the noosphere
Machine-adjusted crowd wisdom is called the Cindicator "hybrid intelligence" (GI). The project team is not even correctly called developers - because they are developing only part of the system. Her main strength, literally live. So a Cindicator would be more suitable for defining managers of hybrid intelligence. Being at the very beginning of the way for its development, study, domestication.
If you combine the knowledge of Cindicator about the wisdom of the crowd and the experience in directing the elemental power of collective intelligence to solve applied problems with the development of the same Neuralink, if Ilona Mask accompanies them with the same success as with electric vehicles, then the hybrid intelligence of Cindicator, combined with a neural interface, it can provide people with a breakthrough at a new technological, intellectual, social level, which previously was associated exclusively with the invention of AI.
The physical (more precisely, bioelectronic) interface created by Neuralink will require software developments that allow you to directly realize the opportunities that have emerged - just like a modern smartphone without a rich set of programs, turns out to be nothing more than an expensive flashlight. The development of hardware is more complicated and more expensive, but in the end, the one who has the best software wins - let’s be an example of a Windows Phone that hasn’t taken off as an eternal reminder of this.
By deploying its technologies on the Neuralink platform or any other similar project that comes to the finish line earlier, Cindicator will be able to overcome the margin of conventionality in defining “hybrid intelligence” and create a hybrid of the human mind with the computing power of machines without any quotes. In fact, this will mean a transition to the Vernadsky noosphere . And so far, of all the alternatives available to us, namely the capabilities of the human mind, overclocked by integration with electronic brains, combined, perhaps, into a kind of supermind, seem to be the best defense against AI threats, real or imaginary. At the very least, this will preserve the ability of the human mind to know the reality - postponing the onset of singularity for some time - that is, the moment when the speed and complexity of technology development will outstrip a person's ability to realize what is happening. Hybrid intelligence is our best chance so far to keep our place at the top of the food chain.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/399863/
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