Russia in the Mg (the alarm of a simple entrepreneur)
I want to invite everyone to read the article of the director of the company where I used to work - a smart, experienced and thoughtful person.
This text was written a year and a half ago, and then many embraced it with hostility - it seemed to them that everything was going too well and that would continue, and only alarmists shout about the brewing crisis.
But what do we have now?
Look at the RTS chart , its fall within a month, the price of oil and its dynamics, inflation growth and drop in labor productivity, and then read this article written a year and a half ago. Who is the prophet here?
So, the article (complied with the author's spelling and expression):
I want to live in my homeland !!!, but god !!! how tired I am of all this ...
')
So, Russia has entered a full-scale economic crisis. You have not noticed? Nothing, and you will notice soon ...
Of course, the eye is washing up a continuous stream of “socialistically” uniform, victorious and optimistic news about taming inflation, about steady growth in GDP, about the power of the national currency, winning the dollar, and so on.
However, if there is even a drop of common sense, then this unwinding flywheel of a comprehensive crisis is hard to miss.
I would like to clarify for mutual understanding what I mean by “economic crisis”. If in the ordinary, a crisis is a turning point in changes, in this sense - of course, the crisis has not come. Old-fashioned people consider a crisis in the economy - something like a default when overnight the same compressed spring of accumulated negative processes in the economy is unclenched. But in fact, the economic crisis, (and the economy of any country is disproportionately large compared with the current personal wealth), this is when the positive changes do not exceed the negative changes. Think about the wording - it means that there are more negative phenomena than positive ones. The economy is a lot of vector, even in the time of default, someone won. So, it is precisely this formulation that is most correct in defining a crisis. By itself, the default of 98, in my opinion, was not a crisis, but the self-liquidation of an outdated system. Brought more by and large positive than negative. Life in loans, postponing the problem for later, deception of oneself and the people, asexual foreign policy of indulging one who gives loans, theft and irresponsibility - all this has fallen to the heads of those who nurtured it all. If everything happened (spring opening) slowly and sadly, then perhaps this is a much worse option, since the consequences would be more catastrophic. Actually, we also have this kind of experience, the whole system of socialism (created and built by the founders, who never worked themselves as creators) was the slow squeezing of the spring of crisis phenomena. Especially in the early 70s, this process of negative changes ceased to be properly compensated by positive directions. On the one hand, it is not psychologically scary, what can happen (or not happen) is not at all soon. But do not be a conductor of butterfly psychology - her happy life is transient. We already had everything, and there is no point in attacking the “old rake” again. Actually, the psychology of the “little man whose hut is on the edge” leads us to such events more than once. But how does the song say “It’s not like idlers, and you could live ..” Mom gave birth to us on Mondays?
We have become more informed, we see the world more with our own eyes, rather than through the news commentators of central television. Internet - finally broke the monopoly of television on the truth of the news. Social networks are expanding and become a conduit for instant dissemination of information and a versatile assessment of it.
So what we see, let's try to figure it out?
When looking at our country from the outside, one can immediately notice various economic absurdities:
1. In one of the poorest countries in Europe - Russia - the most expensive prices for almost everything, except for (for now) gasoline. But the one in America, the richest country in the world, is cheaper than ours. And at the same time, they buy oil from us, pay a weak export duty, transport it through half the world, reload, process it with expensive American hands, deliver it to consumers, and in the end it is cheaper? So, someone has a lot for free?
2. All other goods — from eggs, meat, wine, fish, to real estate — are cheaper in Europe, not to mention America. At the same time, it is absolutely not clear how, for example, pig meat grown by Germans, with its clearly higher salary, more expensive energy carriers for agricultural machinery and pig farming, of much better quality than what we sell, with high costs in trade. The result is cheaper ????
3. At the same time, the rise in prices is continuous and considerably exceeds the inflation declared by the government. How is this possible? After all, do not be fooled, confirmation every day on the price tags of stores! The ruble is rising relative to world currencies. And prices are rising in rubles - therefore, all our prices are rising twice - for the first time in rubles, and then also in currency terms, due to the artificial growth of the ruble exchange rate.
4. With the growth of ruble prices in trade, the ruble itself is continuously growing relative to world currencies !!! This means: either - the whole world is rolling in tartars, and we are in a “white coat”, or that the ruble is being artificially strengthened in order to hide the real inflation. And this in turn suggests that the real increase in prices is even higher.
5. Property prices have exceeded prices in many Western countries. It is overvalued by pumping unsecured funds to the economy from the commodity sector at least 2 times. With disgusting quality, and the highest risk in the acquisition. Prices for housing and communal services are almost equal to the world, with the same quality. The main result of the implementation of the National Project “Affordable Housing” was the tripling in 2 years of the cost of housing, and as a result, its complete inaccessibility to the population. With the cost of a one-room apartment at $ 100,000 and a loan rate of 15 percent per annum, a young highly paid specialist, even paying $ 1,000 a month (which is VERY much even at Western salaries) risks not paying this price ever? The financial balance is monstrous, renting a one-room apartment in Moscow costs $ 700 per month, a communal apartment 70, transport to work another 70, for a total of only 840 dollars to spend on the apartment and the way to work. While the rent has not yet risen in price following the price of real estate three times and this process has just begun!
6. The prices for the rental of commercial real estate also began to grow rapidly, and anyone who starts a business or expands it, is already deliberately put at a disadvantage, if not impossible. We rent a square meter office already costs from 30 to 70 dollars in the ordinary. In not the cheapest country in Germany, renting an office in Leipzig costs 11 euro a meter, in Berlin - 16 euro, and only in Frankfurt experiencing an acute shortage of space - 30 euro a meter! What kind of production of competitive products and global competitiveness can we talk about?
I do not want to give detailed political assessments of what is happening. So it is clear that the roots of what is happening go back to the origins of “market” reforms.
But guys !!! The sense of self-preservation should be even elementary? Is it really necessary to attack the same rake more than once? After all, we remember the guiltily smiling Lifshits, our main economist of the times of default, who spoke with a bewildered smile in front of the camera, saying that "we thought that a strong ruble policy would be an anchor for our economy." Yeah, anchor on the neck of a sinking economy! And after all, well done! And his son, probably in MGIMO, and champagne for $ 1,000 per bottle does not stop buying. And we remember that the course of the “fortified” over and above the measure of the anchor has collapsed 6 times. And retired heroically raised by how much since then?
Woe - dropouts, our economists, and after all, no one has deprived of a diploma of higher education, not to mention all sorts of doctoral studies, professorships, doctoral studies. Peeeedias ... But after all, this Lifshits should have just deserved to live in a village in the Perm Region in a house - a hen that rickety retired in the amount of 5000r. To each - according to his abilities! And it would be the height of humanism! Where is this damn "feedback"?
Where is the feedback, in which the official with the disgusting and disastrous work may suffer? Is there a management system that monitors world prices and tariffs of final consumers and would regulate domestic prices of monopolists based not on their astrological forecasts by the stars, but on the basis of a real picture of world prices and preferably with a focus on countries where there is a serious increase in these areas of the economy. And if the price picture does not create conditions for growth prospects of competitiveness of industries, then it would flexibly react to this not by administration, but by market mechanisms, creating attractiveness and soft conditions in this direction, providing there benefit and interest to entrepreneurs and workers.
Here, on the TV channel, they show the chief sanitary Onishchenko, who complains about the "sluggishness" of entrepreneurs who could not fill the vacated niches after his administration banned the importation of wines, mineral water, meat, fish. It is in “White Coat”, and the fact that salmon in stores jumped in price by 1.5-2 times, and Moldovan wines could not fully replace Krasnodar wines - business is not agile due to ... And it turns out that we cannot get off the oil and gas needle - the same is to blame the sluggishness of entrepreneurs !!! Vaughn like !!! All guilty it turns out, have long been known !!! How much time is needed to get land, plant vineyards, grow vines and harvest, install processing equipment, provide for exposure and storage, bottling lines, logistics, promote new brands - he even remotely understands what IT IS LABOR, and how much time and effort ???? And can he guarantee that the entrepreneur, having done all this, will not press into the fact that Moldova decided not to go into NATO and agreed to buy Gazprom gases at a price of $ 250? What did you get the benefits of returning your wine to the Russian markets? And with a more favorable climate, with low wages of the Moldovan peasant, with less corruption of power, will its costs be lower and competitiveness will be above the Russians who hit the winemaking industry?
What will create impossible conditions for the sale of their products to the poor Russian entrepreneur who has decided on the next feat of the kamikaze? But for him this is the end ... The end of his family, work, work ...
What is the point of fighting with pig-breeding methods for improving demography, if the entire structure of the emerging state-monopoly capitalism is aimed at over-exploitation of the people? What makes the people breed not a little, but dying a lot? We do not have a low birth rate, we have a high mortality rate !!!
And this high mortality rate is not only from the agonizing public health system.
Let's consider how the additional class of the average class, the basis of any market economy, is exposed to us, and from what this “basis” is like flies:
...
Habr does not allow to post very long articles and just cuts them off, so if you are interested, read the sequel where the original was published a year and a half ago - there were also 1500 interesting comments typed.
This text was written a year and a half ago, and then many embraced it with hostility - it seemed to them that everything was going too well and that would continue, and only alarmists shout about the brewing crisis.
But what do we have now?
Look at the RTS chart , its fall within a month, the price of oil and its dynamics, inflation growth and drop in labor productivity, and then read this article written a year and a half ago. Who is the prophet here?
So, the article (complied with the author's spelling and expression):
I want to live in my homeland !!!, but god !!! how tired I am of all this ...
')
So, Russia has entered a full-scale economic crisis. You have not noticed? Nothing, and you will notice soon ...
Of course, the eye is washing up a continuous stream of “socialistically” uniform, victorious and optimistic news about taming inflation, about steady growth in GDP, about the power of the national currency, winning the dollar, and so on.
However, if there is even a drop of common sense, then this unwinding flywheel of a comprehensive crisis is hard to miss.
I would like to clarify for mutual understanding what I mean by “economic crisis”. If in the ordinary, a crisis is a turning point in changes, in this sense - of course, the crisis has not come. Old-fashioned people consider a crisis in the economy - something like a default when overnight the same compressed spring of accumulated negative processes in the economy is unclenched. But in fact, the economic crisis, (and the economy of any country is disproportionately large compared with the current personal wealth), this is when the positive changes do not exceed the negative changes. Think about the wording - it means that there are more negative phenomena than positive ones. The economy is a lot of vector, even in the time of default, someone won. So, it is precisely this formulation that is most correct in defining a crisis. By itself, the default of 98, in my opinion, was not a crisis, but the self-liquidation of an outdated system. Brought more by and large positive than negative. Life in loans, postponing the problem for later, deception of oneself and the people, asexual foreign policy of indulging one who gives loans, theft and irresponsibility - all this has fallen to the heads of those who nurtured it all. If everything happened (spring opening) slowly and sadly, then perhaps this is a much worse option, since the consequences would be more catastrophic. Actually, we also have this kind of experience, the whole system of socialism (created and built by the founders, who never worked themselves as creators) was the slow squeezing of the spring of crisis phenomena. Especially in the early 70s, this process of negative changes ceased to be properly compensated by positive directions. On the one hand, it is not psychologically scary, what can happen (or not happen) is not at all soon. But do not be a conductor of butterfly psychology - her happy life is transient. We already had everything, and there is no point in attacking the “old rake” again. Actually, the psychology of the “little man whose hut is on the edge” leads us to such events more than once. But how does the song say “It’s not like idlers, and you could live ..” Mom gave birth to us on Mondays?
We have become more informed, we see the world more with our own eyes, rather than through the news commentators of central television. Internet - finally broke the monopoly of television on the truth of the news. Social networks are expanding and become a conduit for instant dissemination of information and a versatile assessment of it.
So what we see, let's try to figure it out?
When looking at our country from the outside, one can immediately notice various economic absurdities:
1. In one of the poorest countries in Europe - Russia - the most expensive prices for almost everything, except for (for now) gasoline. But the one in America, the richest country in the world, is cheaper than ours. And at the same time, they buy oil from us, pay a weak export duty, transport it through half the world, reload, process it with expensive American hands, deliver it to consumers, and in the end it is cheaper? So, someone has a lot for free?
2. All other goods — from eggs, meat, wine, fish, to real estate — are cheaper in Europe, not to mention America. At the same time, it is absolutely not clear how, for example, pig meat grown by Germans, with its clearly higher salary, more expensive energy carriers for agricultural machinery and pig farming, of much better quality than what we sell, with high costs in trade. The result is cheaper ????
3. At the same time, the rise in prices is continuous and considerably exceeds the inflation declared by the government. How is this possible? After all, do not be fooled, confirmation every day on the price tags of stores! The ruble is rising relative to world currencies. And prices are rising in rubles - therefore, all our prices are rising twice - for the first time in rubles, and then also in currency terms, due to the artificial growth of the ruble exchange rate.
4. With the growth of ruble prices in trade, the ruble itself is continuously growing relative to world currencies !!! This means: either - the whole world is rolling in tartars, and we are in a “white coat”, or that the ruble is being artificially strengthened in order to hide the real inflation. And this in turn suggests that the real increase in prices is even higher.
5. Property prices have exceeded prices in many Western countries. It is overvalued by pumping unsecured funds to the economy from the commodity sector at least 2 times. With disgusting quality, and the highest risk in the acquisition. Prices for housing and communal services are almost equal to the world, with the same quality. The main result of the implementation of the National Project “Affordable Housing” was the tripling in 2 years of the cost of housing, and as a result, its complete inaccessibility to the population. With the cost of a one-room apartment at $ 100,000 and a loan rate of 15 percent per annum, a young highly paid specialist, even paying $ 1,000 a month (which is VERY much even at Western salaries) risks not paying this price ever? The financial balance is monstrous, renting a one-room apartment in Moscow costs $ 700 per month, a communal apartment 70, transport to work another 70, for a total of only 840 dollars to spend on the apartment and the way to work. While the rent has not yet risen in price following the price of real estate three times and this process has just begun!
6. The prices for the rental of commercial real estate also began to grow rapidly, and anyone who starts a business or expands it, is already deliberately put at a disadvantage, if not impossible. We rent a square meter office already costs from 30 to 70 dollars in the ordinary. In not the cheapest country in Germany, renting an office in Leipzig costs 11 euro a meter, in Berlin - 16 euro, and only in Frankfurt experiencing an acute shortage of space - 30 euro a meter! What kind of production of competitive products and global competitiveness can we talk about?
I do not want to give detailed political assessments of what is happening. So it is clear that the roots of what is happening go back to the origins of “market” reforms.
But guys !!! The sense of self-preservation should be even elementary? Is it really necessary to attack the same rake more than once? After all, we remember the guiltily smiling Lifshits, our main economist of the times of default, who spoke with a bewildered smile in front of the camera, saying that "we thought that a strong ruble policy would be an anchor for our economy." Yeah, anchor on the neck of a sinking economy! And after all, well done! And his son, probably in MGIMO, and champagne for $ 1,000 per bottle does not stop buying. And we remember that the course of the “fortified” over and above the measure of the anchor has collapsed 6 times. And retired heroically raised by how much since then?
Woe - dropouts, our economists, and after all, no one has deprived of a diploma of higher education, not to mention all sorts of doctoral studies, professorships, doctoral studies. Peeeedias ... But after all, this Lifshits should have just deserved to live in a village in the Perm Region in a house - a hen that rickety retired in the amount of 5000r. To each - according to his abilities! And it would be the height of humanism! Where is this damn "feedback"?
Where is the feedback, in which the official with the disgusting and disastrous work may suffer? Is there a management system that monitors world prices and tariffs of final consumers and would regulate domestic prices of monopolists based not on their astrological forecasts by the stars, but on the basis of a real picture of world prices and preferably with a focus on countries where there is a serious increase in these areas of the economy. And if the price picture does not create conditions for growth prospects of competitiveness of industries, then it would flexibly react to this not by administration, but by market mechanisms, creating attractiveness and soft conditions in this direction, providing there benefit and interest to entrepreneurs and workers.
Here, on the TV channel, they show the chief sanitary Onishchenko, who complains about the "sluggishness" of entrepreneurs who could not fill the vacated niches after his administration banned the importation of wines, mineral water, meat, fish. It is in “White Coat”, and the fact that salmon in stores jumped in price by 1.5-2 times, and Moldovan wines could not fully replace Krasnodar wines - business is not agile due to ... And it turns out that we cannot get off the oil and gas needle - the same is to blame the sluggishness of entrepreneurs !!! Vaughn like !!! All guilty it turns out, have long been known !!! How much time is needed to get land, plant vineyards, grow vines and harvest, install processing equipment, provide for exposure and storage, bottling lines, logistics, promote new brands - he even remotely understands what IT IS LABOR, and how much time and effort ???? And can he guarantee that the entrepreneur, having done all this, will not press into the fact that Moldova decided not to go into NATO and agreed to buy Gazprom gases at a price of $ 250? What did you get the benefits of returning your wine to the Russian markets? And with a more favorable climate, with low wages of the Moldovan peasant, with less corruption of power, will its costs be lower and competitiveness will be above the Russians who hit the winemaking industry?
What will create impossible conditions for the sale of their products to the poor Russian entrepreneur who has decided on the next feat of the kamikaze? But for him this is the end ... The end of his family, work, work ...
What is the point of fighting with pig-breeding methods for improving demography, if the entire structure of the emerging state-monopoly capitalism is aimed at over-exploitation of the people? What makes the people breed not a little, but dying a lot? We do not have a low birth rate, we have a high mortality rate !!!
And this high mortality rate is not only from the agonizing public health system.
Let's consider how the additional class of the average class, the basis of any market economy, is exposed to us, and from what this “basis” is like flies:
...
Habr does not allow to post very long articles and just cuts them off, so if you are interested, read the sequel where the original was published a year and a half ago - there were also 1500 interesting comments typed.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/39955/
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