Six technologies that "put America on its knees"
The National Intelligence Council is the center for the strategic analysis of the US intelligence community. One of its activities is to hold discussions and conferences among non-governmental experts. Among the topics of such discussions are civilian technologies that pose a potential danger to national interests in the medium and long term.
In connection with the upcoming US presidential election, some NIC discussions are becoming more relevant. For example, April, in which six technologies that threaten American national interests were identified. The year 2025 was chosen as the starting point.
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However, they pose a certain “danger” for other countries. The Internet is also there, but not in the first place.
1. Biogerontechnology is a rather angular English term. Behind it lies a combination of medical and other technologies that lead to an increase in life expectancy. The issue of pensions is relevant for both the United States and China. In 2025, experts expect that every able-bodied citizen of the United States will feed three retirees. The problems of the United States, in comparison with China, are aggravated by the fact that American pensioners will live longer, live more actively and spend more. Those. one American grandfather will cost ten Chinese.
2. Conservation of energy . The rapid development of new methods of energy conservation, including new materials and technologies for batteries, capacitors, as well as the improvement of fuel cells, will change the paradigm of production, distribution and consumption of resources.
In the field of geopolitics, the development of a “hydrogen” economy can lead to a change in the balance of power on a global scale. In the economy, a serious blow will be dealt to oil producing and oil refining companies, which today, despite all the efforts of Microsoft and Google, are still the richest and most influential. In the military area, thanks to portable energy sources, units will be able to operate autonomously for a longer time. They will become more mobile. In the social sphere, the new “hydrogen” economy will have a positive effect - it will finally become economical and environmentally friendly - but it will balance the danger of a social explosion: after all, people employed in traditional “oil” industries may lose their jobs.
3. Biofuels and biochemistry . Biofuels are good for everyone: it is cleaner, does not cause the greenhouse effect and weakens competition for energy resources, the report says. The challenge for the United States and other countries is to build a bioenergy economy on time. I'd add: there are some nuances. Already they are talking about the possibility of a food crisis, caused by the fact that agricultural products will go not to the table, but to the gas tank. The reorientation of agriculture, the increase in food prices can lead to a food crisis. However, the United States and the rich countries are unlikely to be affected. It is known that the poor, not the rich, suffer most from food problems.
4. Technologies of “clean coal” . Coal is known to be dirty fuel. When it is burned, not only water and carbon dioxide are emitted, as is the case with many other hydrocarbons, but practically the entire periodic table. According to American experts, today's expectations of clean coal technology are too high. If they are not created or are not clean enough, it can lead to economic and environmental problems.
Possible threats: increased global warming, "coal war" by analogy with today's "wars for oil".
5. The development of robotics . Experts expect that by 2025, robots can replace people in some areas of activity, as well as work alongside them. For example, the Japanese are already successfully working on nurse robots. There are a lot of materials . Most likely, robots will appear in the service sector, primarily low-paid ones. They will become nurses, cleaners, etc. In high-tech manufacturing, robots are already a good replacement for humans. Also, robots will replace people in hazardous jobs. Possible consequences are social explosions. In the transition from the industrial to the informational society, former workers found their use in the service sector. What will happen if there is no place for a person in it?
Although in general, experts regard this area as positive for the States and see the main challenge in taking leading positions in it.
6. Internet . The main danger of the Internet in its universal penetration. By 2025, it will be difficult to find a device that is not connected to the global network. There is a demand for such things today and it is not a sin for companies to satisfy them. Problems arise with information security. In addition, in the opinion of experts, trouble may arise from the fault of suppliers. Today, most of the "American" electronics are made in China and other countries. "You never know what chip enemies put in there!". At the same time, the release of these products in the US is not so profitable. This, of course, is about mass technology, and not about military or applied in vital areas. However, as the Web develops, the value of consumer devices will increase.
The full report on this conference with possible development scenarios can be found here . - a lot of letters in English.
In connection with the upcoming US presidential election, some NIC discussions are becoming more relevant. For example, April, in which six technologies that threaten American national interests were identified. The year 2025 was chosen as the starting point.
')
However, they pose a certain “danger” for other countries. The Internet is also there, but not in the first place.
1. Biogerontechnology is a rather angular English term. Behind it lies a combination of medical and other technologies that lead to an increase in life expectancy. The issue of pensions is relevant for both the United States and China. In 2025, experts expect that every able-bodied citizen of the United States will feed three retirees. The problems of the United States, in comparison with China, are aggravated by the fact that American pensioners will live longer, live more actively and spend more. Those. one American grandfather will cost ten Chinese.
2. Conservation of energy . The rapid development of new methods of energy conservation, including new materials and technologies for batteries, capacitors, as well as the improvement of fuel cells, will change the paradigm of production, distribution and consumption of resources.
In the field of geopolitics, the development of a “hydrogen” economy can lead to a change in the balance of power on a global scale. In the economy, a serious blow will be dealt to oil producing and oil refining companies, which today, despite all the efforts of Microsoft and Google, are still the richest and most influential. In the military area, thanks to portable energy sources, units will be able to operate autonomously for a longer time. They will become more mobile. In the social sphere, the new “hydrogen” economy will have a positive effect - it will finally become economical and environmentally friendly - but it will balance the danger of a social explosion: after all, people employed in traditional “oil” industries may lose their jobs.
3. Biofuels and biochemistry . Biofuels are good for everyone: it is cleaner, does not cause the greenhouse effect and weakens competition for energy resources, the report says. The challenge for the United States and other countries is to build a bioenergy economy on time. I'd add: there are some nuances. Already they are talking about the possibility of a food crisis, caused by the fact that agricultural products will go not to the table, but to the gas tank. The reorientation of agriculture, the increase in food prices can lead to a food crisis. However, the United States and the rich countries are unlikely to be affected. It is known that the poor, not the rich, suffer most from food problems.
4. Technologies of “clean coal” . Coal is known to be dirty fuel. When it is burned, not only water and carbon dioxide are emitted, as is the case with many other hydrocarbons, but practically the entire periodic table. According to American experts, today's expectations of clean coal technology are too high. If they are not created or are not clean enough, it can lead to economic and environmental problems.
Possible threats: increased global warming, "coal war" by analogy with today's "wars for oil".
5. The development of robotics . Experts expect that by 2025, robots can replace people in some areas of activity, as well as work alongside them. For example, the Japanese are already successfully working on nurse robots. There are a lot of materials . Most likely, robots will appear in the service sector, primarily low-paid ones. They will become nurses, cleaners, etc. In high-tech manufacturing, robots are already a good replacement for humans. Also, robots will replace people in hazardous jobs. Possible consequences are social explosions. In the transition from the industrial to the informational society, former workers found their use in the service sector. What will happen if there is no place for a person in it?
Although in general, experts regard this area as positive for the States and see the main challenge in taking leading positions in it.
6. Internet . The main danger of the Internet in its universal penetration. By 2025, it will be difficult to find a device that is not connected to the global network. There is a demand for such things today and it is not a sin for companies to satisfy them. Problems arise with information security. In addition, in the opinion of experts, trouble may arise from the fault of suppliers. Today, most of the "American" electronics are made in China and other countries. "You never know what chip enemies put in there!". At the same time, the release of these products in the US is not so profitable. This, of course, is about mass technology, and not about military or applied in vital areas. However, as the Web develops, the value of consumer devices will increase.
The full report on this conference with possible development scenarios can be found here . - a lot of letters in English.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/39865/
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