Statistics and the "negative state": How Russians use loans

Many people have debts in one form or another - payments for services or for loans. But some of the debt has crossed all the borders: they are not covered by any salary, or all their other assets, put together. This situation is called a "negative state." Let's talk more about what it is and how you can avoid getting into such a situation.

How does the negative state appear

In the US, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a study of the welfare of Americans - it turned out that 14% of US residents are in the "negative" debt zone, and 1.1% of Americans can only cover their debts. Thus, 15.1% of Americans own only a “negative” or “zero” state. The study was conducted by four economists using data from a 2015 consumer expectations survey. Scientists have tried to understand who these 15.1% of people are, what their salary is, how big the debts are.
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In Russia, the situation with debts is also deteriorating. According to Sequoia Credit Consolidation, in 2016 there are about 10.5 million loans in Russia with debts longer than three months. At the same time, the debt of 85% of loans exceeds 10 thousand rubles.

Most of all debtors with overdue payments in Moscow and Moscow region - more than 500 thousand people. About a third of these outstanding loans are in cash.

According to Fitch, in 2015, Russians owed about 11 trillion rubles in loans. Of the 40 million people, about 8 million are able to pay debts on time.

According to the United Credit Bureau (OKB), at the end of 2015, residents of Russia had 74.7 million loans - in the amount of 9.05 trillion. According to the bureau, the worst situation is in the mortgage: the previously stable sector has recently shown the highest increase in overdue liabilities.

In the US, families with a “negative state” are on average younger than people with a “zero” or “positive state”, and more often do not have a higher education. In such families, the annual income is lower ($ 39077 versus $ 86309), and it is much more likely that these are single-parent families that do not own their home. Half of the value of assets in such families are cars. Positive-state households put off more pension savings and own housing assets.

The biggest debt item for citizens with a “negative state” in the US is student loans . For people with the most debt, college loans range from 40% to 50% of total debt. In addition to educational loans, about 30% of the debts of families with a “negative state” fall on credit cards.

According to the authors of the study, the growth of debts for tuition leads to a greater stratification of the population in the United States. People with a sufficient amount of funds for education are less likely to fall into a group with a “negative state”, they can save it for the future, otherwise many debtors pay loans until the end of their lives.

In 2015, mortgage debt in Russia grew by 58%, which is 132 billion rubles. This is due to changes in exchange rates. Credits in foreign currency make up no more than 4% of the total, but the weakening of the ruble leads to unpleasant consequences and unwillingness to take new loans. At the end of 2015, credit institutions had 2.6 million active mortgage loans amounting to about 3.3 trillion rubles.

The amount of overdue mortgage loans in 2015 decreased to 3.2% of the total mortgage portfolio - 82 thousand loans. In 2016, overdue debt increased to 4% of the total.

Some more statistics

At the end of 2015, the amount of credit card debt was 928 billion rubles, which is 35.6 million loans. Among them, the number of overdue debts increased to 5.1 million. In mid-2016, the volume of such cards is 14.4% of the total. The amount of arrears is 242 billion rubles.

It is becoming more debtors and loans for cars: at the end of 2015 in the portfolios of banks accumulated over 1.4 million car loans to 536 billion rubles. The number of overdue loans of which 189 thousand. In 2016, the share of overdue car loans is 12.7% of the total. Over 2015, the volume of overdue debt increased to 68 billion rubles.

The current economic situation leads to a reduction in the number of small loans — people more often refuse short-term loans. According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), the number of debtors with loans of less than 30 thousand rubles decreased by 6% and continues to decline.

As of June 1, 2015, such loans paid out 13.7 million people, and as of June 1, 2016, their number had already decreased to 10.7 million. But this is still the highest proportion of the total number of borrowers in the country.

At the same time there are more borrowers with high levels of debt. Now 7.4 million people owe banks from 30 to 100 thousand rubles, and people with a debt of more than 1.5 million - 1.4 million people. Russians more often choose large loans, the proportion of people with debts ranging from 30 to 100 thousand rubles increased to 20.7% of the total number of debtors.

How to avoid the "negative state"

Financial problems often arise for people with a weak perception of income and expenditure management. Banks have become more cautious about borrowers, especially during a crisis. Loans are harder to get even to those whose income will quickly return the borrowed amount. If in such a situation a person applies for a loan, then he does not know how to manage his finances.

If earlier employees of credit organizations tried not to pay attention to low customer awareness, now experts themselves recommend increasing the general financial literacy of the population.

You can not take loans and accumulate debts, if you are not sure that you can pay. Research data shows that today, the usual ways of advancement in society do not work. For example, student loans will not help much to get the desired benefits.

If you are ambitious and want to conquer peaks, increase your income, then you will have to look for an individual path. We don’t have to think about economic stability, so we need to increase our level of knowledge in this matter by all available means - understand the mechanisms of the markets, available tools, opportunities for saving or raising income.

The crisis teaches people to borrow money only for the most necessary needs, it can also push to search for new ways to earn money. For example, people turn to trading in the stock market, often taking risks.

Getting started with the markets is quite difficult, so you can start by opening a test account on the stock exchange, work in demo mode with virtual money and gradually switch to real trading.

Statistics and the "negative state": How Russians use loans

How does the negative state appear

Some more statistics

How to avoid the "negative state"

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