📜 ⬆️ ⬇️

Wings, legs and tails

I don’t know about you, but I haven’t met for a long time non-fiction articles on the general topic “Modeling of humans and communities”. And it would be strange to assume that such works are not conducted by the same business, advertising companies. Considering the enormous volumes of everyday information that is dumped on the social network, it can be assumed that the source material is complete. Even more than necessary.

Conspirology


And what if the world government, under the leadership of reptiloids, has long ago created a software-hardware complex for modeling people’s life on the basis of the Pentagon’s secret data centers? Software that performs accounting and control of processes occurring both with a single individual and with social and production groups. The newest quantum processors calculate probabilities, huge data arrays are analyzed for unrevealed trends and obvious deviations from forecasts from past iterations.



And at this moment your projection in the virtual world lives a thousand Saturdays at the same time, in order to simulate your behavior on Saturday evening. It takes into account external factors, the call of the mother, the deadline at work, and even the girl Anya, who is about to run out of oil, which will force her to go to the store.
')
Further more. Each of your Saturdays somehow influences the lives of other people, and if you assume that your influence is limited to known contacts, local disturbances from any of your actions are also calculated. And the very oil in which you step, if your mother never calls you.

Reality


So, let's say, the lizards have their plans for intergalactic lands, the MGA government also manages the predictions obtained for their own purposes. And even reading this article is predicted in one of the options for the future. In the inflamed brain paranoid or in one of the servers in the Navajo desert. But the world, as we know, is ruled not by a secret lodge, but by an obvious crap. And the maximum that elemental capitalism is capable of is to offer you in the contextual advertising a product that you have already found, ordered and paid for.

But what if such a reality modeling system is built by a community of developers on the principles of openness and goodness or indifference (! Evil)? How will this system be used, what will it give to people? Maybe a new economic reality? Or more opportunities to live as you will be more comfortable (even if you didn’t even think that cutting dogs is your real vocation)?

Motivation


Now one can argue that the world is too diverse, that man is irrational and for the most part unpredictable. But, if we turn to the physical meaning of many phenomena, it turns out that most of them are subject to quite simple laws with known limits of applicability. Roughly speaking, we know that being in known coordinates, a person on foot can move quite a short distance, and a person has never visited many objects within the specified radius. So most likely he will go to the store. And he will buy the same thing there as always, and considering that he is hungry (he hasn’t eaten for a long time), he may reapply food from hunger.

And so in almost any situation. Despite a certain degree of irrationality and stochasticity, people mostly act with some kind of quite understandable and simple goal. And it greatly reduces the possible options for the future.

And even if the remaining options are difficult to calculate, even today, humanity can already now begin to design a system of universal modeling and forecasts. For example, based on p2p technologies, which will serve as another proof of the openness of the system. The stage of the system promotion may even include the participation of living people, volunteers who will train neural networks and other mechanisms for modeling all possible actions of people in given situations. The element of gamification is also possible.

Example


You can start with simple things. From the economy, for example. Models of economic agents that will realistically behave in the market and in virtual production will allow to test and predict many hypotheses concerning various economic models. In economics, the set of actions of agents is limited and the main problem of modeling is the motivation of agents, the humanization of their needs and goals.

For example, since the 19th century there is a well-known model of the monetary system Frei Geld. A system designed to accelerate economic processes in a crisis economy. The system is based on the desire of people to get rid of cheapening monetary units that cannot be saved. According to the author, Silvio Gezel, this system removes the accumulative function from the concept of money, which forces people not to save bills in a pillow, removing them from the economy for years and reducing the volume of bills available to other people.

Many argue that this mechanism is similar to inflation, but it is worth noting that the difference is significant. The essence of inflation is not that the price tags in the store change upwards, but the fact that there is a rapid increase in prices relative to consumer income.

If the incomes of the population grew faster, then no one would have read that a liter of gasoline today costs 25 rubles. instead of 23 rubles. in January, if during the same time your salary increased by 20%. If every month all prices grew by 10%, and at the same time your salary was indexed by 10%, then you would also not notice any inflation. There would be a change in the face value of prices, but your purchasing power remained unchanged.

And here we come to another important factor - not only does inflation increase prices faster than income, prices for various goods and services also increase unevenly. An additional difference is the fact that inflation raises prices for all goods, except for the commodity “labor force”.

Conclusion


Returning to the topic of the article, one can consider a system from mathematical calculations and a program model of such an economic system in which precisely modeled agents (people and companies) could live many future options in the free money system and demonstrate the long-term effects of the described approach to the money mechanism. In modeling economic processes, there is no complicated mathematics, but there is a global human factor, a factor of evil and deception, and humanity cannot afford social experiments in a crisis, because an unsuccessful experiment will most likely signify blood and death.

But a universal modeling and prediction system could provide relatively reliable ways to test ideas of social development without sacrifice and suffering. And as the heroes of the famous cartoon “It’s better to lose a day, then fly in five minutes” said. And most importantly, the wings, legs or tail, they never knew.

PS


© pictures from the Internet, comics about dinosaurs by Anton Barchatkou

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/396673/


All Articles